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Study Guide: Understanding Bank Runs and Financial Crises

Cheat Sheet:
Understanding Bank Runs and Financial Crises Study Guide

Bank Run Fundamentals

A bank run is characterized by a large number of depositors simultaneously withdrawing their funds due to concerns about the bank's potential failure.

Answer: True

Explanation: A bank run is fundamentally defined as a situation where a significant number of depositors simultaneously withdraw their funds, driven by concerns regarding the bank's potential insolvency. This phenomenon is particularly critical within fractional-reserve banking systems due to the limited cash reserves banks maintain.

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A bank run can exacerbate a bank's financial problems, potentially turning a solvency issue into an actual bankruptcy.

Answer: True

Explanation: A bank run can indeed worsen a bank's financial condition. The process of meeting withdrawal demands depletes a bank's liquidity, potentially transforming an initial solvency concern into an actual state of bankruptcy.

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Rapid liquidation of assets by a bank facing a run can lead to significant losses and disrupt businesses reliant on those assets.

Answer: True

Explanation: When a bank is compelled to liquidate its assets rapidly during a run, it often must sell them at distressed prices, incurring significant losses. This forced asset sales can also disrupt the functioning of businesses that depend on the bank's loans or investments, potentially causing wider economic repercussions.

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What is the fundamental definition of a bank run?

Answer: A period when depositors withdraw funds due to concerns about the bank's potential failure.

Explanation: A bank run is fundamentally defined as a situation where a significant number of depositors simultaneously withdraw their funds, driven by concerns regarding the bank's potential insolvency. This phenomenon is particularly critical within fractional-reserve banking systems due to the limited cash reserves banks maintain.

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What is the relationship between a bank run and insolvency?

Answer: A bank run can be triggered by fears of insolvency and can worsen the bank's financial state, potentially causing bankruptcy.

Explanation: A bank run is often precipitated by the fear or reality of a bank's insolvency. The act of running on the bank itself depletes its liquidity, thereby increasing the probability of default and potentially transforming a solvency concern into actual bankruptcy.

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What is a potential negative consequence for the broader economy if a bank is forced to liquidate assets rapidly during a run?

Answer: Disruption to businesses and potential bankruptcies among debtors due to forced sales at losses.

Explanation: When a bank liquidates assets rapidly during a run, it often does so at significantly reduced prices. This forced selling can depress asset values, disrupt businesses that rely on those assets or related credit, and potentially lead to a cascade of bankruptcies, negatively impacting the broader economy.

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Banking System Vulnerabilities

Fractional-reserve banking systems are inherently immune to bank runs because banks always maintain sufficient cash reserves.

Answer: False

Explanation: Fractional-reserve banking systems are not inherently immune to bank runs. In fact, by lending out the majority of deposited funds and retaining only a fraction as reserves, banks become vulnerable. This structure means they may lack sufficient liquid cash to satisfy all withdrawal demands during a period of mass withdrawals.

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Single-branch banking laws in the U.S. during the Great Depression helped stabilize the banking system and prevent runs.

Answer: False

Explanation: During the Great Depression, single-branch banking laws in the U.S. did not stabilize the banking system; rather, they contributed to its fragility. States with such laws often experienced more frequent and severe bank runs compared to those with more diversified, multi-branch banking structures.

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The core vulnerability of fractional-reserve banking lies in the mismatch between short-term liabilities (deposits) and long-term assets (loans).

Answer: True

Explanation: The fundamental vulnerability of fractional-reserve banking stems from the inherent mismatch between its liabilities, which are typically short-term and demandable (deposits), and its assets, which are often long-term and illiquid (loans). This structural issue creates liquidity risk, making banks susceptible to runs.

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The law of large numbers helps banks predict aggregate withdrawal behavior by assuming individual needs for cash are highly correlated.

Answer: False

Explanation: The law of large numbers assists banks in predicting aggregate withdrawal behavior by assuming that individual depositors' needs for cash are largely uncorrelated. This statistical principle allows for predictable averages across a large customer base, rather than assuming high correlation.

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How does fractional-reserve banking contribute to the risk of bank runs?

Answer: Banks lend out most deposits, keeping only a fraction as reserves, which can be insufficient for mass withdrawals.

Explanation: Fractional-reserve banking contributes to the risk of bank runs because banks lend out the majority of deposited funds, retaining only a fraction as reserves. This means a bank may not possess sufficient liquid cash to meet all withdrawal demands if a substantial number of depositors seek to withdraw their funds simultaneously.

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What is the 'asset-liability mismatch' that makes banks vulnerable to runs?

Answer: Assets and liabilities having different maturity dates, creating liquidity risk.

Explanation: The asset-liability mismatch refers to the discrepancy in maturity dates between a bank's assets (e.g., long-term loans) and its liabilities (e.g., short-term demand deposits). This mismatch creates liquidity risk, as banks may not be able to convert assets into cash quickly enough to meet sudden, large withdrawal demands.

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How does the law of large numbers apply to normal bank operations regarding withdrawals?

Answer: It suggests that individual withdrawal needs are uncorrelated, allowing for predictable aggregate behavior.

Explanation: The law of large numbers enables banks to predict aggregate withdrawal behavior by assuming that individual depositors' needs for cash are largely uncorrelated. This statistical principle allows banks to anticipate average withdrawal patterns across their customer base, facilitating efficient reserve management.

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Theories and Behavioral Aspects

The concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy applies to bank runs, where the fear of failure can directly cause the failure itself.

Answer: True

Explanation: The phenomenon of a bank run is a classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Initial fears or rumors of a bank's potential failure can prompt depositors to withdraw funds, thereby depleting the bank's reserves and increasing the likelihood of actual insolvency, thus fulfilling the prophecy.

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The Diamond-Dybvig model suggests that bank runs are irrational events driven solely by panic, regardless of a bank's actual financial health.

Answer: False

Explanation: The Diamond-Dybvig model posits that bank runs can be rational outcomes, not solely driven by panic irrespective of a bank's health. The model illustrates how bank runs can arise from multiple Nash equilibria, where it may be individually rational for a depositor to withdraw funds if they anticipate others doing so, thereby precipitating the bank's failure.

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Banks primarily profit in the Diamond-Dybvig model by charging fees for deposit accounts.

Answer: False

Explanation: Within the Diamond-Dybvig model, banks primarily generate profits not from deposit fees, but from the interest rate spread. They earn revenue by charging borrowers a higher interest rate on loans than they pay to depositors on their accounts.

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Robert K. Merton, who coined the term 'self-fulfilling prophecy,' did not consider bank runs to be an example of this phenomenon.

Answer: False

Explanation: Robert K. Merton, the sociologist who conceptualized the 'self-fulfilling prophecy,' explicitly identified bank runs as a prime illustration of this principle. He argued that a false belief can lead to actions that make the belief come true.

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Which of the following best describes how a bank run can become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Answer: As depositors withdraw money, the bank's cash diminishes, increasing default risk, which prompts more withdrawals.

Explanation: A bank run functions as a self-fulfilling prophecy because as depositors withdraw funds, the bank's available cash decreases. This reduction in liquidity heightens the perceived risk of default, which in turn encourages further withdrawals, creating a reinforcing cycle that can lead to the bank's failure.

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In the context of the Diamond-Dybvig model, how do banks primarily generate profits?

Answer: By charging a higher interest rate on loans than they pay on deposits.

Explanation: Within the Diamond-Dybvig model, banks primarily generate profits through the interest rate spread. They earn revenue by lending funds at a higher interest rate than the rate paid on customer deposits, thereby covering operational costs and generating earnings.

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Historical and Systemic Crises

A banking panic is identical to an individual bank run, differing only in the geographical location.

Answer: False

Explanation: A banking panic is distinct from an individual bank run. While a bank run involves withdrawals from a single institution, a banking panic signifies a broader crisis where numerous banks experience runs concurrently, often leading to widespread loss of confidence in the entire financial system.

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A systemic banking crisis is characterized by the loss of nearly all of a country's banking capital.

Answer: True

Explanation: A systemic banking crisis represents the most severe form of banking instability, marked by the near-total loss of a nation's banking capital. Such events can precipitate profound and prolonged economic downturns.

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Ben Bernanke argued that bank runs played a minor role in the severity of the Great Depression.

Answer: False

Explanation: Contrary to the statement, Ben Bernanke's analysis posits that bank runs played a significant, rather than minor, role in exacerbating the severity of the Great Depression. He argued that these widespread withdrawals contributed substantially to the economic contraction.

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Systemic banking crises typically result in economic output losses averaging around 20% of GDP.

Answer: True

Explanation: Empirical evidence suggests that significant systemic banking crises are associated with substantial economic repercussions, with average economic output losses estimated to be approximately 20% of GDP for crises occurring between 1970 and 2007.

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The Dutch tulip manias and the British South Sea Bubble are cited as early examples related to financial instability and potential bank runs.

Answer: True

Explanation: Historical accounts identify events such as the Dutch tulip manias (1634-1637) and the British South Sea Bubble (1717-1719) as early precursors or related phenomena to modern financial instability and the potential for bank runs, involving speculative manias and credit cycles.

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In 1832, reformers used the threat of a bank run to pressure the government into passing the Reform Act, specifically targeting the Duke of Wellington's administration.

Answer: True

Explanation: Historical records indicate that in 1832, political reformers employed the threat of a bank run, encapsulated by the slogan 'Stop the Duke, go for gold!', to exert pressure on the government, led by the Duke of Wellington, to enact the Reform Act.

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The banking panics of November 1930 in the Southern United States were initiated by the failure of banks in New York and California.

Answer: False

Explanation: The banking panics of November 1930 commenced in the Southern United States, specifically triggered by the failure of banks in Tennessee and Kentucky, not New York and California. These initial failures cascaded through correspondent banking networks.

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Canada experienced widespread bank runs during the Great Depression, similar to the United States.

Answer: False

Explanation: Canada did not experience widespread bank runs during the Great Depression, a stark contrast to the situation in the United States. This divergence is often attributed to differences in regulatory frameworks and banking structures between the two nations.

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A systemic banking crisis is the least severe form of banking instability, following individual bank runs and banking panics.

Answer: False

Explanation: A systemic banking crisis represents the most severe form of banking instability. It is characterized by the widespread collapse of the banking sector, far exceeding the scope and impact of individual bank runs or even broader banking panics.

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Fictional works like 'It's a Wonderful Life' have depicted bank runs as a theme.

Answer: True

Explanation: Bank runs have been a recurring and impactful theme in various fictional works. The film 'It's a Wonderful Life' (1946) is a notable example, alongside others like 'American Madness' (1932), which have used bank runs to explore societal anxieties and financial fragility.

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The 'Kipper und Wipper' phenomenon involved widespread debasement of coinage and speculative bubbles in the Holy Roman Empire.

Answer: True

Explanation: The 'Kipper und Wipper' phenomenon, occurring in the early 17th century within the Holy Roman Empire, was indeed characterized by extensive debasement of currency and speculative excesses, leading to significant economic disruption and financial instability.

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The 'Encilhamento' in Brazil was a period of stable financial growth and minimal speculation.

Answer: False

Explanation: The 'Encilhamento' in Brazil, spanning from 1890 to 1893, was precisely the opposite of stable financial growth; it was a period marked by rampant stock market speculation and excessive credit expansion, culminating in a severe financial crash and widespread bankruptcies.

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The image of the Montreal City and District Savings Bank in 1872 depicts the bank's mayor addressing a crowd of depositors during a run.

Answer: True

Explanation: The illustration of the Montreal City and District Savings Bank in 1872 visually captures a bank run scenario, showing the bank's mayor attempting to address a large gathering of depositors who were seeking to withdraw their funds.

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The 'Great Bullion Famine' refers to a period of excessive gold and silver supply in the 15th century.

Answer: False

Explanation: The 'Great Bullion Famine,' occurring roughly between 1400 and 1500, was characterized by a scarcity, not an excess, of precious metals like gold and silver, which had significant implications for the monetary systems of the era.

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What is a key difference between an individual bank run and a banking panic?

Answer: A bank run involves withdrawals from one bank; a banking panic involves numerous banks experiencing runs at the same time.

Explanation: The primary distinction lies in scope: a bank run pertains to withdrawals from a single financial institution. In contrast, a banking panic, or bank panic, is a systemic event where multiple banks simultaneously face runs, reflecting a broader crisis of confidence in the financial system.

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According to Ben Bernanke's analysis, what was the impact of bank runs on the Great Depression?

Answer: Bank runs significantly worsened the Great Depression, with much of the economic damage stemming directly from them.

Explanation: Ben Bernanke's research posits that bank runs played a crucial role in amplifying the Great Depression. He argued that the widespread destruction of banking capital resulting from these runs was a primary driver of the severe economic contraction experienced during that period.

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What is the average estimated economic output loss for significant systemic banking crises between 1970 and 2007?

Answer: Approximately 20% of GDP

Explanation: Analysis of systemic banking crises occurring between 1970 and 2007 indicates substantial economic consequences. The average estimated loss in economic output during these crises was approximately 20% of a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

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Which historical event is mentioned as an early example related to financial instability and speculative manias?

Answer: The Dutch tulip manias

Explanation: The Dutch tulip manias, a period of intense speculative activity in the 17th century, are frequently cited as an early historical example of financial instability and speculative manias that foreshadowed later crises.

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Which of the following is an example of a fictional depiction of a bank run?

Answer: The film 'It's a Wonderful Life'

Explanation: The film 'It's a Wonderful Life' (1946) is a well-known fictional depiction that prominently features a bank run, illustrating the panic and potential consequences associated with such events within a narrative context.

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What was the 'Kipper und Wipper' phenomenon?

Answer: A financial crisis in the Holy Roman Empire involving coinage debasement and speculation.

Explanation: The 'Kipper und Wipper' phenomenon refers to a significant financial crisis that occurred in the Holy Roman Empire between 1621 and 1623. It was characterized by widespread debasement of coinage and speculative bubbles, leading to considerable economic instability.

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Regulatory and Policy Responses

Banks facing a run can only wait for the run to subside naturally, as they have no mechanisms to actively combat it.

Answer: False

Explanation: Banks facing a run are not entirely passive. They can employ various mechanisms to combat it, such as seeking emergency liquidity from other institutions or the central bank, imposing withdrawal limits, or, in extreme cases, temporarily suspending convertibility.

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Encouraging term deposits over demand deposits is a strategy banks use to mitigate the risk of bank runs.

Answer: True

Explanation: Banks strategically encourage term deposits (which have fixed maturity dates and withdrawal penalties) over demand deposits (which are immediately accessible). This shift helps stabilize funding sources and reduces the immediate liquidity pressure that can trigger bank runs.

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Deposit insurance completely eliminates the incentive for depositors to withdraw funds during a bank run.

Answer: False

Explanation: While deposit insurance significantly reduces the incentive for depositors to withdraw funds due to fear of loss, it does not completely eliminate it. Concerns about immediate access to funds during a crisis or during the reorganization process can still prompt withdrawals.

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Central banks act as a lender of last resort by providing long-term loans to banks experiencing solvency issues.

Answer: False

Explanation: Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort, typically provide short-term liquidity to solvent but illiquid institutions. They do not generally provide long-term loans to banks experiencing fundamental solvency problems, as this would entail taking on excessive risk.

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Full-reserve banking, where banks hold 100% of deposits, would eliminate the risk of bank runs by ensuring immediate liquidity.

Answer: True

Explanation: A system of full-reserve banking, where banks are required to hold 100% of customer deposits in reserve and refrain from lending them out, would theoretically eliminate the risk of bank runs. This is because banks would always possess sufficient liquid assets to meet all depositor withdrawal demands.

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Capital requirements, such as those in Basel III, aim to reduce bank runs by ensuring banks have less capital relative to their assets.

Answer: False

Explanation: Capital requirements, exemplified by Basel III regulations, are designed to strengthen banks' resilience by mandating that they hold *more* capital relative to their assets. This increases their capacity to absorb losses and reduces the likelihood of insolvency, thereby mitigating the risk of bank runs.

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Walter Bagehot's 'Lombard Street' primarily discusses the history of central banking without addressing liquidity crises.

Answer: False

Explanation: Walter Bagehot's seminal work, 'Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market,' is critically important for its analysis of liquidity crises and the role of the lender of last resort. It provides foundational insights into managing financial panics, not merely a historical account of central banking.

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A 'bridge bank' is a permanent institution established to manage the assets of failed banks indefinitely.

Answer: False

Explanation: A 'bridge bank' is a temporary entity, established by regulatory authorities or deposit insurers. Its purpose is to manage the assets and liabilities of a failed bank until a permanent resolution, such as sale to another institution or liquidation, can be achieved. It is not intended to be a permanent fixture.

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Moral hazard can arise from safety nets like deposit insurance, potentially encouraging banks to take on excessive risks.

Answer: True

Explanation: The existence of safety nets, such as deposit insurance or the lender of last resort function, can create a moral hazard. This occurs when banks, knowing they are protected from certain losses or can access emergency funding, may have reduced incentives to avoid excessive risk-taking in their operations.

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The lender of last resort function is typically performed by commercial banks to support other financial institutions.

Answer: False

Explanation: The lender of last resort function is a critical role typically performed by a nation's central bank, not commercial banks. Its purpose is to provide essential liquidity to solvent financial institutions facing temporary funding shortages, thereby preventing systemic crises.

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Transparency in financial markets can help prevent crises by allowing better assessment of institutional health, as seen during the subprime mortgage crisis.

Answer: False

Explanation: While transparency is generally considered beneficial for preventing crises by enabling better assessment of institutional health, the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010) is often cited as an example where a lack of transparency regarding complex financial products amplified uncertainty and hindered effective risk assessment, contributing to the crisis.

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What are some emergency measures that can be taken when prevention of a banking panic fails?

Answer: Seeking additional cash from other banks or the central bank.

Explanation: When preventive measures fail and a banking panic looms, banks can seek emergency liquidity from other financial institutions or the central bank. Other measures include imposing withdrawal limits or, in extreme circumstances, declaring a bank holiday to temporarily halt all transactions.

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How does deposit insurance help prevent bank runs?

Answer: It protects depositors' savings up to a limit, removing the main incentive to withdraw funds due to fear.

Explanation: Deposit insurance functions as a crucial mechanism to prevent bank runs by guaranteeing depositors' funds up to a specified limit, even in the event of bank failure. This assurance significantly diminishes the primary motivation for depositors to withdraw their money preemptively due to fear.

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What is the primary role of a central bank as a 'lender of last resort'?

Answer: To provide short-term liquidity to solvent but illiquid financial institutions.

Explanation: The primary function of a central bank acting as a 'lender of last resort' is to supply short-term liquidity to financial institutions that are solvent but temporarily illiquid. This intervention is vital for maintaining financial stability and preventing liquidity shortages from escalating into systemic crises.

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What is 'full-reserve banking'?

Answer: A system where banks hold 100% of deposited funds as reserves.

Explanation: Full-reserve banking is a theoretical banking model wherein institutions are mandated to hold 100% of customer deposits in reserve. This means that deposited funds are not lent out, thereby eliminating the fractional-reserve system's inherent liquidity risk.

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How do capital requirements, like those mandated by Basel III, help prevent bank runs?

Answer: By strengthening capital buffers, making banks less likely to become insolvent.

Explanation: Capital requirements, such as those established under Basel III, enhance bank stability by mandating that banks maintain robust capital buffers relative to their assets. This increased capital adequacy strengthens their capacity to absorb financial shocks and reduces the probability of insolvency, thereby mitigating the risk of bank runs.

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What is a 'bridge bank' in the context of bank failures?

Answer: A temporary institution set up by regulators until a failed bank's business is sold or liquidated.

Explanation: A 'bridge bank' is a temporary financial institution established by regulatory authorities or deposit insurers to manage the operations and assets of a failed bank. Its purpose is to ensure continuity until the failed bank's business can be sold or liquidated.

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The concept of 'moral hazard' in banking, related to safety nets, suggests that:

Answer: Safety nets reduce banks' incentive to avoid excessive risk-taking.

Explanation: Moral hazard, in the context of banking safety nets like deposit insurance or lender of last resort facilities, implies that the protection offered may reduce the incentive for financial institutions to exercise prudence and avoid excessive risk-taking, as they are shielded from the full consequences of potential failures.

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Contemporary Challenges

A 'silent run' involves depositors gradually withdrawing funds due to a loss of confidence in a government's ability to support its banking system.

Answer: True

Explanation: A 'silent run' is characterized by a gradual, often stealthy, withdrawal of funds by depositors and investors. This behavior is typically motivated by diminishing confidence in a government's capacity to backstop its banking system, rather than an immediate fear of a specific bank's failure.

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A 'cyber run' is primarily triggered by concerns over a bank's long-term solvency due to a cyber-attack.

Answer: False

Explanation: A cyber run is not primarily triggered by concerns over long-term solvency due to a cyber-attack. Instead, it is characterized by rapid withdrawals of institutional deposits, prompted by fears of losing timely access to funds or payment capabilities due to operational disruptions caused by a cyber-attack on the bank's systems.

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The Silicon Valley Bank incident in March 2023 is cited as an example of a cyber run.

Answer: True

Explanation: The rapid withdrawal of funds from Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, where customers withdrew substantial amounts in a single day, is frequently cited as a prominent example illustrating the dynamics and speed characteristic of a cyber run, driven by concerns over operational continuity.

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The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) might not be sufficient to handle the rapid withdrawal speeds characteristic of cyber runs, according to studies.

Answer: True

Explanation: Research, such as studies on cyber runs, suggests that current prudential liquidity regulations like the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) may be insufficient. The assumptions underlying LCR calculations might underestimate the extreme speed at which outflows can occur during a cyber-attack, potentially leaving banks inadequately prepared.

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An 'emergency payment node' is a proposed system designed to ensure continuity of wholesale payments during systemic operational outages.

Answer: True

Explanation: An 'emergency payment node' is indeed a proposed mechanism intended to safeguard the continuity of critical wholesale payment systems. It is designed to function during systemic operational disruptions, ensuring essential financial transactions can still be processed.

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What is a 'silent run' on a bank?

Answer: A gradual withdrawal of funds by depositors losing confidence in the government's support for its banking system.

Explanation: A 'silent run' occurs when depositors and investors gradually withdraw funds, often below insured limits, due to a loss of confidence in the government's ability to support its banking system. This differs from a traditional run in its pace and underlying cause.

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What is the primary driver of a 'cyber run'?

Answer: Fear of losing timely access to funds or payment capabilities due to operational disruptions from a cyber-attack.

Explanation: The primary driver of a 'cyber run' is not necessarily concerns about a bank's fundamental solvency, but rather the fear among depositors, particularly institutional ones, of losing timely access to their funds or the ability to conduct payments due to operational disruptions caused by a cyber-attack.

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What is a potential issue with current prudential rules like the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) concerning cyber runs?

Answer: LCR assumptions may underestimate the speed at which outflows can occur during a cyber-attack.

Explanation: Studies on cyber runs suggest a potential inadequacy in current prudential liquidity rules like the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). The underlying assumptions regarding the speed of deposit outflows may not fully account for the rapid and potentially instantaneous nature of withdrawals during a severe cyber-attack, thus posing a risk.

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