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Study Guide: Cyclical Theories of History and Society

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Cyclical Theories of History and Society Study Guide

Introduction to Social Cycle Theories

Social cycle theories propose that societal events and historical stages generally repeat themselves in cycles, contrasting with social evolutionism which views societal evolution as progressing in unique directions.

Answer: True

Explanation: Social cycle theories posit that societal events and historical stages tend to repeat in cyclical patterns, in contrast to social evolutionism's view of unique, linear progression.

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Social cycle theories inherently preclude any form of social progress, focusing exclusively on repetition without advancement.

Answer: False

Explanation: While emphasizing repetition, some social cycle theories, including early and contemporary political-demographic models, explicitly integrate social progress, indicating that cycles do not necessarily preclude advancement.

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Literary works such as 'Penguin Island' and 'A Canticle for Leibowitz' illustrate social cycle theories by showing civilizations repeatedly rising, collapsing, and rebuilding, only to repeat the cycle.

Answer: True

Explanation: Literary works like 'Penguin Island' and 'A Canticle for Leibowitz' exemplify social cycle theories by depicting civilizations that repeatedly rise, collapse, and rebuild, only to repeat the cycle of progress and decline.

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Which of the following best describes social cycle theories in sociology?

Answer: Theories that suggest events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles.

Explanation: Social cycle theories are foundational sociological theories proposing that societal events and historical stages generally repeat themselves in cycles, contrasting with linear social evolutionism.

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According to the source, how do social cycle theories differ from social evolutionism regarding societal progression?

Answer: Social cycle theories suggest cyclical repetition, whereas social evolutionism posits progression in new and unique directions.

Explanation: Social cycle theories emphasize recurring patterns in societal events and historical stages, while social evolutionism views societal development as progressing in unique, linear directions.

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How do literary works like 'Penguin Island' and 'A Canticle for Leibowitz' typically express social cycle theories?

Answer: By depicting civilizations repeatedly rising, collapsing, and rebuilding, only to repeat the cycle of progress and decline.

Explanation: These literary works illustrate social cycle theories by portraying civilizations that undergo repeated cycles of ascent, collapse, and subsequent rebuilding, often highlighting humanity's tendency to repeat historical patterns.

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Classical and Early Modern Cyclical Thought

The Greek term 'Kyklos' was used by classical Greek authors to describe the cycle of governments, reflecting a common ancient belief in repeating Dark and Golden Ages.

Answer: True

Explanation: Classical Greek authors used the term 'Kyklos' to describe the cycle of governments, aligning with ancient beliefs in recurring Dark and Golden Ages.

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Plato described his cycle of governments in 'Laws,' identifying six forms including monarchy and ochlocracy.

Answer: False

Explanation: Plato described his five forms of government (aristocracy, timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, tyranny) in 'Republic,' not 'Laws,' and did not include ochlocracy in his primary cycle.

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Plato's cycle of governmental devolution begins with tyranny and progresses towards aristocracy, driven by economic prosperity.

Answer: False

Explanation: Plato's cycle of governmental devolution begins with aristocracy and progresses towards tyranny, driven by a decline in moral character and guiding principles, not economic prosperity.

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Polybius's concept of *anacyclosis* describes a six-stage cycle of governments, starting with ochlocracy and ending with democracy before repeating.

Answer: True

Explanation: Polybius's concept of *anacyclosis* outlines a six-stage cycle of governments: ochlocracy, monarchy, tyranny, aristocracy, oligarchy, and democracy, which then devolves back into ochlocracy, thus repeating the cycle.

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Polybius believed that a pure form of democracy, like that of Athens, was the most stable government structure.

Answer: False

Explanation: Polybius argued that pure forms of government, including democracy, were inherently unstable and prone to rapid degeneration. He advocated for a mixed government, exemplified by the Roman Republic, for greater stability.

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Machiavelli fully accepted Polybius's rigid pattern of natural governmental devolution, applying it directly to his analysis of Italian city-states.

Answer: False

Explanation: Machiavelli adopted the idea of a circular structure of alternating government types but did not accept Polybius's rigid pattern of natural governmental devolution, suggesting more variability in historical progression.

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What Greek term was used by classical authors to describe the cycle of governments?

Answer: Kyklos

Explanation: Classical Greek authors used the term 'Kyklos' to describe the cycle of governments, reflecting ancient beliefs in repeating historical patterns.

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Which group of classical thinkers is considered precursors to the 19th-century academic analysis of cyclical history?

Answer: Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Giambattista Vico

Explanation: Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Giambattista Vico are recognized as key precursors whose ideas laid the groundwork for the academic analysis of cyclical history that emerged in the 19th century.

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In which of Plato's works are his five forms of government—aristocracy, timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and tyranny—described?

Answer: Republic

Explanation: Plato's five forms of government and their cyclical devolution are extensively described in his philosophical work 'Republic,' particularly in Books VIII and IX.

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According to Plato, which form of government is ruled by the pursuit of wealth?

Answer: Oligarchy

Explanation: Plato's cycle of governmental devolution identifies oligarchy as the form of government ruled by the pursuit of wealth.

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What is the name of Polybius's concept for the cycle of governments, and which form is typically considered mob rule?

Answer: Anacyclosis; Ochlocracy

Explanation: Polybius's concept for the cycle of governments is *anacyclosis*, and ochlocracy is the term he used to describe mob rule.

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Which historical example did Polybius use to illustrate his ideal of a stable mixed government?

Answer: The Roman Republic

Explanation: Polybius considered the Roman Republic to be the ideal embodiment of a stable mixed government, combining elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy.

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How did Machiavelli's interpretation of *anacyclosis* differ from Polybius's rigid pattern?

Answer: Machiavelli adopted the idea of a circular structure of alternating government types but did not accept Polybius's rigid pattern of natural governmental devolution.

Explanation: Machiavelli, in 'Discourses on Livy,' embraced the general concept of cyclical government changes but rejected the strict, predetermined sequence of Polybius's *anacyclosis*.

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19th and 20th Century Theorists

Thomas Carlyle and Oswald Spengler were classical thinkers who laid the foundation for cyclical history analysis before the 19th century.

Answer: False

Explanation: Thomas Carlyle and Oswald Spengler were prominent 19th and 20th-century theorists, respectively, who contributed to cyclical history analysis, not classical thinkers before the 19th century.

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Oswald Spengler, in 'The Decline of the West,' argued that Western civilization was in its final phase and destined for decline, a view shared by Thomas Carlyle regarding civilizations' cyclical nature.

Answer: True

Explanation: Oswald Spengler's 'The Decline of the West' indeed posited that Western civilization was in its final phase of decline, a perspective that aligns with Thomas Carlyle's view of civilizations growing and dying in cycles.

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Nikolai Danilewski predicted that Roman-German civilization was approaching its Golden Age, while Slav civilization was in decline by the end of the 19th century.

Answer: False

Explanation: Nikolai Danilewski predicted the opposite: that Roman-German civilization was in decline, while Slav civilization was approaching its Golden Age by the end of the 19th century.

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Vilfredo Pareto's first social cycle theory focused on an elite social class, dividing it into 'foxes' and 'lions' between whom power constantly cycles.

Answer: True

Explanation: Vilfredo Pareto's first social cycle theory, as presented in 'Trattato di Sociologia Generale,' indeed described the constant cycling of power between cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions' within the elite social class.

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Pitirim A. Sorokin predicted that the modern West, as an ideational civilization, would achieve unprecedented stability and avoid decadence.

Answer: False

Explanation: Pitirim A. Sorokin classified the contemporary West as a 'sensate' civilization and prophesied its eventual fall into decadence, leading to a new ideational or idealistic era, not unprecedented stability.

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Alexandre Deulofeu's model proposed that civilizations pass through a single 550-year cycle, and he believed these cycles were unchangeable.

Answer: False

Explanation: Alexandre Deulofeu's model proposed that civilizations pass through at least three 1,700-year cycles, and empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He hoped that understanding these cycles could lead to their modification for peaceful societal change.

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Which work by Oswald Spengler argued that Western civilization had entered its final phase of development and was destined for decline?

Answer: 'Der Untergang des Abendlandes' (The Decline of the West)

Explanation: Oswald Spengler's seminal work, 'Der Untergang des Abendlandes,' famously argued that Western civilization was in its final, declining phase.

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According to Nikolai Danilewski's theory, which civilization was predicted to be approaching its Golden Age by the end of the 19th century?

Answer: Slav civilization

Explanation: Nikolai Danilewski, in 'Rossiia i Evropa,' predicted that Slav civilization was approaching its Golden Age by the end of the 19th century, contrasting with the decline of Roman-German civilization.

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Vilfredo Pareto's first social cycle theory described the constant cycling of power between which two types of leaders within the elite social class?

Answer: Cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'

Explanation: Vilfredo Pareto's theory of elite circulation posited a constant cycling of power between two types of leaders: the cunning 'foxes' and the violent 'lions'.

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According to Pitirim A. Sorokin, what type of cultural mentality characterized the contemporary West, and what was his prophecy for it?

Answer: Sensate; it would fall into decadence, leading to a new ideational or idealistic era.

Explanation: Pitirim A. Sorokin characterized the contemporary West as a 'sensate' civilization, prophesying its eventual decline into decadence, which would pave the way for a new ideational or idealistic era.

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What was Alexandre Deulofeu's primary hope for the application of his mathematical model of social cycles?

Answer: To modify cycles for peaceful societal change instead of leading to war.

Explanation: Alexandre Deulofeu hoped that by understanding the mathematical nature of social cycles, humanity could intervene to modify them, promoting peaceful societal change and averting conflict.

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Contemporary Macro-Historical Cycles

Political-demographic cycles are largely dismissed in contemporary social theories as irrelevant to complex agrarian systems.

Answer: False

Explanation: Political-demographic cycles are a crucial recent finding in contemporary social theories, identified as a basic and universal feature of complex agrarian systems worldwide, not dismissed as irrelevant.

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George Modelski developed long cycle theory, which connects war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.

Answer: True

Explanation: George Modelski's long cycle theory indeed describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership, outlining a patterned succession of global powers.

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George Modelski views wars as random acts of international anarchy that disrupt the long cycle, which typically lasts only 20-30 years.

Answer: False

Explanation: George Modelski views wars as 'systemic decisions' and a natural product of the long cycle, which typically lasts approximately 70 to 100 years, or 87 to 122 years when periods of global war are included.

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Long cycle theory identifies Portugal, the Netherlands, Great Britain, and the United States as historical hegemons, correlating these cycles with Kondratieff Waves.

Answer: True

Explanation: Long cycle theory identifies Portugal, the Netherlands, Great Britain, and the United States as historical hegemons, and these hegemonic cycles are strongly correlated with economic Kondratieff Waves.

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Joshua S Goldstein's 'political midlife crisis' refers to a period of unprecedented stability and peace for a dominant power, such as the United States after World War II.

Answer: False

Explanation: Joshua S Goldstein's 'political midlife crisis' describes a period when a dominant power faces significant challenges or engages in major conflicts after a period of growth and expansion, not unprecedented stability.

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The Soviet Union's Cuban Missile Crisis and the United States' involvement in the Vietnam War are cited as examples of 'political midlife crises' by Joshua S Goldstein.

Answer: True

Explanation: Joshua S Goldstein cites the Soviet Union's Cuban Missile Crisis and the United States' involvement in the Vietnam War as examples of 'political midlife crises' for dominant powers.

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Most economists widely accept Kondratiev waves as definitive, predictable long economic cycles that accurately forecast recessions.

Answer: False

Explanation: Most economists dismiss theories of Kondratiev waves, viewing recessions as random events and the appearance of cycles as pareidolia, rather than accepting them as definitive or predictable.

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Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, and Sergey Malkov are key figures who demonstrated that sociodemographic cycles are a universal feature of complex agrarian systems.

Answer: True

Explanation: Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, and Sergey Malkov are indeed key figures who demonstrated that sociodemographic cycles are a basic and universal feature of complex agrarian systems.

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The four-stage dynamic of sociodemographic cycles in agrarian systems starts with a demographic collapse, immediately followed by a period of sustained peace and prosperity without further cycles.

Answer: False

Explanation: The four-stage dynamic of sociodemographic cycles begins with population growth reaching carrying capacity, leading to societal stress, followed by demographic collapse, and then a period where resources are freed up, allowing population growth to resume, initiating a new cycle.

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An 'intercycle' in secular cycles theory is a period of rapid technological advancement that prevents state collapse and ensures continuous expansion.

Answer: False

Explanation: An 'intercycle' in secular cycles theory is a period where a functioning state collapses and takes time to rebuild before a new cycle can properly begin, not a period of rapid technological advancement preventing collapse.

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During the Expansion phase of the integrative cycle, population increases and sociopolitical instability is low, while in Stagflation, elite competition rises and state strength begins to decrease.

Answer: True

Explanation: During the Expansion phase, population increases and sociopolitical instability is low. In the Stagflation phase, elite competition rises, and state strength is high but decreasing, aligning with the statement.

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During the Crisis phase, state strength is at its peak, and elite conflicts are low, leading to a rapid population increase in the Depression/Intercycle.

Answer: False

Explanation: During the Crisis phase, state strength collapses, and elite conflicts are high. In the Depression/Intercycle, population slowly decreases further, and attempts are made to rebuild the state, not a rapid population increase.

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The 'fathers and sons' cycle occurs exclusively during the integrative phase of secular cycles, characterized by continuous peace and stability.

Answer: False

Explanation: The 'fathers and sons' cycle, characterized by alternating periods of strife and peace, occurs within the disintegrative phases of secular cycles, not exclusively during the integrative phase.

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What is the significance of political-demographic cycles in contemporary social theories?

Answer: They are identified as a basic and universal feature of complex agrarian systems worldwide.

Explanation: Political-demographic cycles are recognized as a fundamental and universal characteristic of complex agrarian systems globally, representing a significant finding in contemporary social theories.

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Who developed long cycle theory, which describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership?

Answer: George Modelski

Explanation: George Modelski is credited with developing long cycle theory, which systematically links war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political dimensions of world leadership.

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According to George Modelski's long cycle theory, how does he view wars within this framework?

Answer: As 'systemic decisions' and a natural product of the long cycle, punctuating the global system.

Explanation: Modelski conceptualizes wars not as random events but as 'systemic decisions' that are an inherent part of the long cycle, serving to punctuate and reshape the global system at regular intervals.

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Which economic phenomena are strongly correlated with the hegemonic cycles described in long cycle theory?

Answer: Economic Kondratieff Waves

Explanation: Long cycle theory posits a strong correlation between hegemonic cycles and economic Kondratieff Waves, which are hypothesized long-term economic cycles.

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Which of the following is an example of a 'political midlife crisis' as described by Joshua S Goldstein?

Answer: The British Empire's Crimean War (1853-1856).

Explanation: Joshua S Goldstein identifies the British Empire's Crimean War as an example of a 'political midlife crisis,' a period where a dominant power faces significant challenges after expansion.

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According to Joshua S Goldstein, which two events are further examples of a 'political midlife crisis'?

Answer: The Soviet Union's Cuban Missile Crisis and the United States' Vietnam War.

Explanation: The Soviet Union's Cuban Missile Crisis and the United States' Vietnam War are cited by Joshua S Goldstein as additional examples of 'political midlife crises' for dominant powers.

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What is the general consensus among most economists regarding Kondratiev waves?

Answer: Most economists dismiss these theories, viewing recessions as random events and cycles as pareidolia.

Explanation: The prevailing view among most economists is to dismiss Kondratiev wave theories, attributing perceived cycles to pareidolia and considering recessions as largely random occurrences.

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What is the primary achievement of key figures like Sergey Nefedov and Peter Turchin in contemporary secular cycles theory?

Answer: Demonstrating that sociodemographic cycles are a basic and universal feature of complex agrarian systems.

Explanation: Key figures such as Sergey Nefedov and Peter Turchin have notably demonstrated that sociodemographic cycles are a fundamental and universal characteristic of complex agrarian systems, transcending specific regional contexts.

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Which of the following is NOT a stage in the four-stage dynamic of sociodemographic cycles in agrarian systems?

Answer: A sustained period of technological innovation that eliminates resource scarcity.

Explanation: The four-stage dynamic of sociodemographic cycles in agrarian systems includes population growth to carrying capacity, demographic collapse, and resource reallocation, but not a sustained period of technological innovation that eliminates resource scarcity.

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In secular cycles theory, what characterizes an 'intercycle'?

Answer: A phase where a functioning state collapses and takes time to rebuild before a new cycle can properly begin.

Explanation: An 'intercycle' in secular cycles theory denotes a period following state collapse, during which time is required for reconstruction before the initiation of a new, proper cycle.

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What happens to state strength during the Crisis phase of the disintegrative cycle in structural-demographic theory?

Answer: It collapses.

Explanation: During the Crisis phase of the disintegrative cycle, structural-demographic theory posits that state strength undergoes a collapse, accompanied by high elite conflicts and instability.

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In which phase of secular cycles theory does Peter Turchin's 'fathers and sons' cycle, characterized by alternating periods of strife and peace, primarily occur?

Answer: The Disintegrative phases

Explanation: Peter Turchin's 'fathers and sons' cycle, marked by alternating periods of strife and peace, is primarily observed within the disintegrative phases of secular cycles.

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Cyclical Patterns in American History

The Strauss-Howe generational theory describes a recurring generation cycle in American history, where a 'turning' is a new era lasting about 20-22 years.

Answer: True

Explanation: The Strauss-Howe generational theory indeed describes a recurring generation cycle in American history, where a 'turning' is defined as a new era lasting approximately 20-22 years.

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The Fourth Turning theory states that a 'saeculum' is a short, 20-year period of crisis that, once resolved, prevents any future crises from occurring.

Answer: False

Explanation: A 'saeculum' in the Fourth Turning theory is a larger cyclical period, representing a long human life (80-90 years), and the theory posits that crises recur after every saeculum, not that a single crisis resolution prevents future ones.

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The cyclical theory of United States history, developed by Samuel P. Huntington, posits an alternation between periods of economic boom and bust.

Answer: False

Explanation: The cyclical theory of United States history, positing an alternation between liberal and conservative phases, was developed by Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Jr., not Samuel P. Huntington, and focuses on political/social shifts rather than economic boom/bust.

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In Schlesinger's theory, liberal phases prioritize private interest and property rights, while conservative phases focus on increasing democracy and public purpose.

Answer: False

Explanation: In Schlesinger's theory, liberal phases focus on increasing democracy and public purpose, while conservative phases prioritize private interest and property rights, which is the inverse of the statement.

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Samuel P. Huntington described 'creedal-passion episodes' as intense efforts to align American government with the 'American creed,' occurring roughly every 60 years.

Answer: True

Explanation: Samuel P. Huntington indeed described 'creedal-passion episodes' as intense efforts to align American government with the 'American creed,' occurring roughly every 60 years.

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The United States has maintained a single, consistent two-party system throughout its history, with minor changes in party platforms but no distinct system shifts.

Answer: False

Explanation: The United States has experienced six distinct party systems throughout its history, each characterized by specific platforms and constituencies, with new systems emerging from periods of reform and party disintegration.

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Stephen Skowronek's theory of US regimes identifies three types of presidencies: liberal, conservative, and moderate.

Answer: False

Explanation: Stephen Skowronek's theory of US regimes identifies four main types of presidencies: reconstructive, articulating, preemptive, and disjunctive, not liberal, conservative, and moderate.

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Frank Klingberg's theory proposes that US foreign policy follows a linear path of increasing international engagement, without any cyclical introverted phases.

Answer: False

Explanation: Frank Klingberg's cyclic theory of US foreign policy suggests an alternation between 'extroverted' and 'introverted' phases, indicating a cyclical pattern rather than a linear path of increasing engagement.

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According to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, what is a 'turning'?

Answer: A new era, typically lasting about 20-22 years, characterized by a distinct social, political, and economic climate.

Explanation: In Strauss-Howe generational theory, a 'turning' signifies a new era, approximately 20-22 years in duration, defined by a unique social, political, and economic climate, influenced by generational archetypes.

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In the Strauss-Howe Fourth Turning theory, what is a 'saeculum'?

Answer: A larger cyclical period, representing a long human life, usually spanning between 80 and 90 years.

Explanation: A 'saeculum' in the Fourth Turning theory refers to a larger cyclical period, typically spanning 80 to 90 years, representing a long human life and encompassing a full cycle of generational archetypes and societal shifts.

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Who developed the cyclical theory of United States history, which posits an alternation between liberal and conservative phases?

Answer: Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.

Explanation: The cyclical theory of United States history, which describes an alternation between liberal and conservative phases, was developed by Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.

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According to Schlesinger's cyclical theory, which characteristic defines a conservative phase in US history?

Answer: Prioritizing private interest, property rights, and concern with the rights of the few.

Explanation: In Schlesinger's cyclical theory, a conservative phase is characterized by a prioritization of private interest, property rights, and a focus on the rights of a select few, often involving the containment of democracy.

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According to Samuel P. Huntington, how often do 'creedal-passion episodes' occur in American history?

Answer: Roughly every 60 years.

Explanation: Samuel P. Huntington proposed that 'creedal-passion episodes,' intense efforts to align American government with the 'American creed,' occur approximately every 60 years in American history.

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How many distinct party systems has the United States had throughout its history, according to the source?

Answer: Six

Explanation: The United States has experienced six distinct party systems throughout its history, each defined by unique party platforms and constituencies, often emerging from periods of significant reform.

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Which of the following is NOT one of the four main types of presidencies identified by Stephen Skowronek in his theory of US regimes?

Answer: Transitional

Explanation: Stephen Skowronek's theory of US regimes identifies four main types of presidencies: reconstructive, articulating, preemptive, and disjunctive. 'Transitional' is not one of his primary classifications.

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According to Frank Klingberg's cyclic theory of US foreign policy, what characterizes an 'introverted' phase?

Answer: The absence of military adventures, challenging other nations, and annexing territory, indicating a period of withdrawal.

Explanation: In Frank Klingberg's cyclic theory, an 'introverted' phase of US foreign policy is characterized by a notable absence of military adventures, challenges to other nations, and territorial annexation, signifying a period of reduced international engagement.

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