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Electoral Dynamics in the Beehive State

An in-depth analysis of Utah's pivotal role in the 2020 United States presidential election, exploring voter trends, demographic influences, and electoral outcomes.

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Election Overview

Context of the 2020 Election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah, held on November 3, 2020, was a component of the broader national election. Utah, with its six electoral votes, participated in the popular vote to determine its representation in the Electoral College. The contest featured the Republican incumbent, Donald Trump, with Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. Historically, Utah has been a reliably Republican state, often delivering substantial margins to GOP candidates.

Turnout and Projections

The election saw a robust voter turnout of 90.09% among registered voters. Leading news organizations consistently projected Utah as either "leaning Republican" or a "safe Republican state" prior to the election. Despite these projections, pre-election polls indicated a potentially closer contest than usual for Utah, with President Trump's support not exceeding 60% in any single poll, and some showing a single-digit lead against Biden.

Key Outcome and Shifts

Ultimately, Donald Trump secured Utah with 58.1% of the vote, yielding a 20.5% margin of victory. While a clear win, this margin was notably narrower compared to the over 70% support received by past Republican nominees like George W. Bush in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012. This outcome represented an improvement for Trump over his 18.1% margin against Hillary Clinton in 2016, largely attributed to a significant reduction in third-party voting, which dropped from 27% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2020. This shift facilitated a more direct two-party contest.

Primary Elections

Republican Primary Dynamics

The Republican primary in Utah was held on March 3, 2020. Incumbent President Donald Trump faced several challengers, though prominent Utah politicians such as Jon Huntsman Jr. and Mitt Romney opted not to contest against him. The results demonstrated strong support for the sitting president within the state's Republican base.

2020 Utah Republican presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 302,751 87.79% 40
Bill Weld 23,652 6.86% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 7,509 2.18% 0
Matthew John Matern 5,751 1.67% 0
Robert Ardini 3,971 1.15% 0
Bob Ely 1,218 0.35% 0
Total 344,852 100% 40

Democratic Primary Outcomes

The Democratic primary also took place on March 3, 2020, featuring a competitive field of candidates. Senator Bernie Sanders emerged as the frontrunner in Utah, securing the most votes and delegates, followed by Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg.

2020 Utah Democratic presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Bernie Sanders 79,728 36.14 16
Joe Biden 40,674 18.44 7
Elizabeth Warren 35,727 16.20 3
Michael Bloomberg 33,991 15.41 3
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 18,734 8.49
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 7,603 3.45
Tulsi Gabbard 1,704 0.77
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 950 0.43
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 703 0.32
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 220 0.10
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 159 0.07
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 138 0.06
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 55 0.02
Other candidates 196 0.09
Total 220,582 100% 29

General Election Predictions

Media Projections

Prior to the general election, various political analysis organizations and news outlets provided their predictions for Utah's electoral outcome. Given Utah's historical voting patterns, the state was widely considered a Republican stronghold.

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Likely R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections Likely R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R November 3, 2020
Politico Likely R November 3, 2020
RCP Likely R November 3, 2020
Niskanen Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin Likely R November 3, 2020
ABC News Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News Likely R November 3, 2020
538 Safe R November 3, 2020

Pre-Election Polling

Aggregate Polls

Despite Utah's Republican lean, polls conducted leading up to the 2020 election indicated a closer race than in previous cycles. Aggregate polling data consistently showed President Trump leading, but often with margins that were narrower than historical Republican performance in the state.

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided		 Margin
270 to Win October 23โ€“31, 2020 November 3, 2020 41.0% 50.5% 8.5% Trump +9.5
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 42.1% 51.9% 6.0% Trump +9.8
Average 41.6% 51.2% 7.2% Trump +9.6

Individual Poll Results

Throughout 2019 and 2020, various polling organizations conducted surveys to gauge voter sentiment in Utah. These polls consistently showed President Trump leading, though his support often hovered in the low to mid-50s, indicating a less dominant position than some previous Republican candidates in the state.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 โ€“ Nov 2, 2020 1,586 (LV) ยฑ 3.5% 55% 43% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ โ€“
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1โ€“28, 2020 2,783 (LV) โ€“ 55% 43% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ โ€“
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Oct 15โ€“24, 2020 660 (LV) ยฑ 3.8% 51% 44% โ€“ โ€“ 5% โ€“
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics Oct 12โ€“17, 2020 1,000 (LV) ยฑ 3.1% 50% 38% 3% 0% 1% 7%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Sep 26 โ€“ Oct 4, 2020 1,214 (LV) ยฑ 2.8% 50% 40% โ€“ โ€“ 10% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1โ€“30, 2020 1,192 (LV) โ€“ 56% 42% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ 2%
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics Sep 7โ€“12, 2020 1,000 (LV) ยฑ 3.1% 53% 35% 5% 0% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1โ€“31, 2020 893 (LV) โ€“ 57% 41% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ 2%
RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jul 27 โ€“ Aug 1, 2020 1,000 (RV) ยฑ 3.1% 50% 31% 3% 1% 4% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1โ€“31, 2020 1,037 (LV) โ€“ 58% 40% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8โ€“30, 2020 412 (LV) โ€“ 57% 41% โ€“ โ€“ โ€“ 1%
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 May 9โ€“15, 2020 1,099 (LV) ยฑ 3% 44% 41% โ€“ โ€“ 9% 5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Apr 15โ€“21, 2020 964 (RV) ยฑ 3.2% 51% 32% โ€“ โ€“ 8% 9%
Y2 Analytics Mar 21โ€“30, 2020 1,266 (RV) ยฑ 2.8% 46% 41% โ€“ โ€“ 7% 5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Feb 24 โ€“ Mar 1, 2020 1,000 (RV) ยฑ 3.1% 50% 33% โ€“ โ€“ 8% 8%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News Jan 15โ€“22, 2020 1,017 (RV) ยฑ 3.1% 49% 31% โ€“ โ€“ 13% 7%
Y2 Analytics Jul 31 โ€“ Aug 6, 2019 149 (RV) โ€“ 36% 35% โ€“ โ€“ 14% 5%

Hypothetical Matchups

Pollsters also explored hypothetical matchups involving President Trump against various Democratic candidates who were active in the primary race. These early polls provided insights into potential general election dynamics before the Democratic nominee was solidified.

Final Election Results

Statewide Totals

The 2020 presidential election in Utah concluded with a decisive victory for the Republican ticket. Donald Trump and Mike Pence secured the state's six electoral votes, reflecting Utah's continued, albeit nuanced, preference for Republican leadership. The overall results highlight significant shifts in voter behavior compared to the 2016 election, particularly concerning third-party influence.

2020 United States presidential election in Utah
Party Candidate Votes % ยฑ%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		865,140 58.13% +12.59%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 560,282 37.65% +10.19%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 38,447 2.58% โˆ’0.92%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball		 7,213 0.48% โˆ’
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr		 5,551 0.37% โˆ’0.34%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 5,053 0.34% โˆ’0.49%
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard		 2,623 0.18% โˆ’
Independent Joe McHugh
Elizabeth Storm		 2,229 0.15% โˆ’
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman		 1,139 0.08% โˆ’
Write-in 612 0.04% -0.38%
Total votes 1,488,289 100.00% -

County-Level Analysis

Geographic Distribution of Votes

The county-level results reveal distinct patterns of support across Utah. President Trump maintained strong performance in rural areas and key larger counties, while Joe Biden made significant inroads in the state's most populous regions, demonstrating a nuanced electoral landscape.

County Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Kanye West
Independent		 Don Blankenship
Constitution		 Howie Hawkins
Green		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Beaver 2,695 86.94% 357 11.52% 23 0.74% 7 0.23% 4 0.13% 6 0.19% 8 0.26% 2,338 75.42% 3,100
Box Elder 21,548 78.87% 4,473 16.37% 614 2.25% 112 0.41% 134 0.49% 55 0.20% 384 1.41% 17,075 62.50% 27,320
Cache 38,032 65.17% 16,650 28.53% 1,796 3.08% 230 0.39% 351 0.60% 217 0.37% 1,082 1.86% 21,382 36.64% 58,358
Carbon 6,693 71.05% 2,392 25.39% 151 1.60% 44 0.47% 22 0.23% 18 0.19% 100 1.06% 4,301 45.91% 9,420
Daggett 496 79.74% 111 17.85% 7 1.13% 2 0.32% 2 0.32% 0 0.00% 4 0.64% 385 61.89% 622
Davis 104,135 60.04% 57,411 33.10% 5,004 2.89% 1,012 0.58% 827 0.48% 597 0.34% 4,448 2.56% 46,724 26.94% 173,434
Duchesne 7,513 87.75% 843 9.85% 107 1.25% 18 0.21% 21 0.25% 9 0.11% 51 0.60% 6,670 77.90% 8,562
Emery 4,207 85.89% 572 11.68% 47 0.96% 15 0.31% 4 0.08% 8 0.16% 45 0.91% 3,635 74.21% 4,898
Garfield 2,158 78.99% 514 18.81% 37 1.35% 2 0.07% 3 0.11% 11 0.40% 7 0.26% 1,644 60.18% 2,732
Grand 2,248 43.19% 2,806 53.91% 62 1.19% 19 0.37% 5 0.10% 23 0.44% 42 0.81% -558 -10.72% 5,205
Iron 18,989 75.64% 4,892 19.49% 666 2.65% 94 0.37% 88 0.35% 78 0.31% 297 1.18% 14,097 56.15% 25,104
Juab 5,087 86.18% 645 10.93% 91 1.54% 13 0.22% 16 0.27% 5 0.08% 46 0.79% 4,442 75.72% 5,903
Kane 2,998 71.30% 1,083 25.76% 51 1.21% 15 0.36% 16 0.38% 8 0.19% 34 0.81% 1,915 45.54% 4,205
Millard 5,404 87.30% 624 10.08% 64 1.03% 16 0.26% 26 0.42% 5 0.08% 51 0.83% 4,780 77.22% 6,190
Morgan 5,181 78.43% 1,086 16.44% 160 2.42% 35 0.53% 21 0.32% 13 0.20% 110 1.67% 4,095 61.99% 6,606
Piute 773 88.44% 86 9.84% 7 0.80% 3 0.34% 1 0.11% 0 0.00% 4 0.45% 687 78.60% 874
Rich 1,157 84.51% 180 13.15% 14 1.02% 4 0.29% 3 0.22% 2 0.15% 9 0.66% 977 71.36% 1,369
Salt Lake 230,174 42.11% 289,906 53.04% 12,219 2.24% 2,590 0.47% 1,570 0.29% 2,203 0.40% 7,919 1.45% -59,732 -10.93% 546,581
San Juan 3,535 51.20% 3,113 45.09% 99 1.43% 45 0.65% 28 0.41% 17 0.25% 67 0.97% 422 6.11% 6,904
Sanpete 10,459 82.19% 1,794 14.10% 215 1.69% 39 0.31% 50 0.39% 19 0.15% 149 1.18% 8,665 68.09% 12,725
Sevier 9,052 87.35% 1,084 10.46% 133 1.28% 28 0.27% 31 0.30% 14 0.14% 21 0.20% 7,968 76.89% 10,363
Summit 10,252 39.00% 15,244 57.99% 367 1.40% 86 0.33% 25 0.10% 65 0.25% 250 0.93% -4,992 -18.99% 26,289
Tooele 21,014 66.67% 8,943 28.37% 958 3.04% 152 0.48% 181 0.57% 81 0.26% 189 0.60% 12,071 38.30% 31,518
Uintah 13,261 86.28% 1,663 10.82% 226 1.47% 37 0.24% 56 0.36% 29 0.19% 98 0.67% 11,598 75.46% 15,370
Utah 192,812 66.69% 76,033 26.30% 10,377 3.59% 1,680 0.58% 1,375 0.48% 853 0.30% 5,971 2.07% 116,779 40.39% 289,101
Wasatch 10,795 60.68% 6,187 34.78% 352 1.98% 86 0.48% 53 0.30% 45 0.25% 272 1.52% 4,608 25.90% 17,790
Washington 67,294 73.82% 20,530 22.52% 1,742 1.91% 298 0.33% 220 0.24% 187 0.21% 889 0.98% 46,764 51.30% 91,160
Wayne 1,229 75.40% 365 22.39% 9 0.55% 7 0.43% 3 0.18% 3 0.18% 14 0.85% 864 53.01% 1,630
Weber 65,949 58.54% 40,695 36.13% 2,849 2.53% 524 0.47% 415 0.37% 482 0.43% 1,735 1.54% 25,254 22.41% 112,649
Totals 865,140 57.45% 560,282 37.20% 38,447 2.55% 7,213 0.48% 5,551 0.37% 5,053 0.34% 24,296 1.61% 304,858 20.25% 1,505,982

County Flips and Trends

While President Trump secured a statewide victory, the election saw notable shifts at the county level. Salt Lake County, the state's most populous, delivered an outright majority to Joe Biden, a feat not achieved by a Democratic nominee since 1964. Summit County also maintained its Democratic majority, and Grand County flipped from Republican to Democratic. Conversely, Trump demonstrated strong performance in counties like Utah, Davis, and Weber, reinforcing the state's complex political geography.

Exit polls further illuminated these trends, indicating that Trump's strength was significantly bolstered by Mormon voters, who constituted 53% of the electorate and gave him 72% of their votes. He also secured 54% of the suburban vote, which accounts for 57% of the state's population. These demographic insights underscore the intricate interplay of religious, urban, and rural factors in Utah's electoral landscape.

Congressional District Results

District-Level Outcomes

In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried all four of Utah's congressional districts, reinforcing the Republican Party's dominance at this level of representation within the state. While the margins varied, each district ultimately favored the Republican ticket.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 64.2% 31.6% Rob Bishop
Blake Moore
2nd 56.1% 40.2% Chris Stewart
3rd 60.3% 35.2% John Curtis
4th 50.2% 45.9% Ben McAdams
Burgess Owens

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References

References

  1.  Key:A รขย€ย“ all adultsRV รขย€ย“ registered votersLV รขย€ย“ likely votersV รขย€ย“ unclear
  2.  Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  3.  270 to Win
  4.  FiveThirtyEight
  5.  SurveyMonkey/Axios
  6.  Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
  7.  RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics
  8.  Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
  9.  RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics
  10.  RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
  11.  Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2
  12.  Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
  13.  Y2 Analytics
  14.  Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
  15.  Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
  16.  Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News
  17.  Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
  18.  Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
  19.  Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
A full list of references for this article are available at the 2020 United States presidential election in Utah Wikipedia page

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