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Atmospheric Restoration

A deep dive into the scientific and technological approaches to actively extract and durably store atmospheric carbon dioxide, crucial for climate mitigation and achieving net-zero emissions.

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What is CDR?

Defining Carbon Removal

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) refers to deliberate human activities that extract carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and store it durably in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or within products. This process is also known as carbon removal, greenhouse gas removal (GGR), or negative emissions. It is distinct from Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which focuses on capturing CO2 from point sources like power plants before it enters the atmosphere, rather than removing existing atmospheric CO2.

Current Scale and Future Potential

As of 2023, CDR initiatives are estimated to remove approximately 2 gigatons of CO2 annually, primarily through low-technology methods such as reforestation. This amount represents about 4% of the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities each year. Expert assessments suggest a significant potential to scale up, with current safe and economically deployable CDR methods capable of removing up to 10 gigatons of CO2 per year if fully implemented worldwide.

Policy Integration and Net-Zero Goals

CDR is increasingly recognized and integrated into global climate policy as a critical component of climate change mitigation strategies. Achieving net-zero emissions necessitates not only deep and sustained cuts in current emissions but also the strategic deployment of CDR. It is anticipated that CDR will be essential for counterbalancing emissions that are technically challenging to eliminate, such as certain agricultural, aviation, and industrial emissions, thereby putting the "net" into "net zero emissions."

Role in Mitigation

Essential for Climate Stabilization

The Earth's surface temperature will only stabilize once global emissions reach net zero. This ambitious goal requires a dual approach: aggressive emission reductions coupled with the widespread deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Certain sectors, such as agriculture (nitrous oxide emissions), aviation, and specific industrial processes, present technical difficulties in achieving zero emissions. CDR serves to counterbalance these hard-to-abate emissions, making net-zero targets attainable.

Reversing Past Warming

Beyond achieving net-zero, CDR holds the potential to actively reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby partially reversing the global warming that has already occurred. All emission pathways designed to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100, as outlined by the IPCC, incorporate substantial use of CDR in conjunction with emission reduction efforts. This highlights CDR's indispensable role in both preventing further warming and mitigating existing climate impacts.

The Politics of Knowledge Production

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which form the analytical backbone for climate mitigation scenarios, have significantly shaped the global policy agenda regarding negative emissions. This process is understood as a "co-production" of knowledge, where scientific ideas and technological artifacts, such as climate models, evolve alongside the societal representations, identities, discourses, and institutions that give them practical meaning. This perspective emphasizes that expert organizations do not merely provide neutral facts but actively shape the policies they evaluate, raising questions about the exploration of truly alternative futures within these models.

Critique & Risks

Not a Substitute for Emission Cuts

A significant critique of CDR is the concern that it might be perceived as a substitute for the urgent and radical cuts required in greenhouse gas emissions. Experts, such as oceanographer David Ho, emphasize that discussing large-scale CDR deployment as a solution while emissions remain high risks replacing immediate emission reductions. Over-reliance on future CDR capabilities presents a "moral hazard," potentially leading to a reduction in near-term climate change mitigation efforts.

Social and Ecological Limits

The feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment faces substantial social and ecological limitations. A primary concern is the vast land area required for many land-based CDR methods. For instance, the combined land requirements for removal plans in global Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2023 amounted to 1.2 billion hectares, equivalent to the world's total cropland. Furthermore, equitable allocation of CDR responsibilities often exceeds individual countries' implied land and carbon storage capacities, highlighting potential geopolitical and resource conflicts.

The Challenge of Permanence

The long-term effectiveness of CDR methods is heavily dependent on the permanence of carbon storage. Biological carbon sinks, such as forests and kelp beds, absorb CO2 into biomass but are considered volatile. Natural events like wildfires, diseases, droughts, or even economic pressures and shifting political priorities can lead to the rapid re-release of sequestered carbon back into the atmosphere. More durable storage options, such as injecting CO2 into geological formations or forming insoluble carbonate salts in the Earth's crust, offer sequestration for thousands to millions of years, addressing the permanence challenge.

CDR Methods

Technology Readiness Levels

Carbon Dioxide Removal methods span a wide range of technological maturity, categorized by their Technology Readiness Level (TRL). TRLs from 8 to 9 indicate proven, deployable technologies, while TRLs 1 to 2 represent concepts still in laboratory validation. The most promising methods for climate change mitigation, as per illustrative pathways, are primarily land-based biological approaches like afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), with direct air capture and storage (DACCS) also gaining prominence.

Here is an overview of CDR methods by their Technology Readiness Level (TRL), from highest to lowest:

  1. Afforestation/Reforestation (TRL 8-9)
  2. Soil carbon sequestration in croplands and grasslands (TRL 8-9)
  3. Peatland and coastal wetland restoration (TRL 8-9)
  4. Agroforestry, improved forest management (TRL 8-9)
  5. Biochar carbon removal (BCR) (TRL 8-9)
  6. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) (TRL 6-7)
  7. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (TRL 6-7)
  8. Enhanced weathering (alkalinity enhancement) (TRL 3-5)
  9. Blue carbon management in coastal wetlands (TRL 3-5)
  10. Ocean fertilization, ocean alkalinity enhancement (TRL 1-2)

Afforestation & Reforestation

Trees naturally absorb CO2 through photosynthesis, storing carbon in their wood and surrounding soils. Afforestation involves establishing new forests in areas historically devoid of them, while reforestation focuses on replanting forests that have been previously cleared. These "forestation" efforts are crucial for carbon removal, with forests typically reaching their maximum sequestration rate after about 10 years. While mature trees continue to store carbon, active removal from the atmosphere slows. Risks include land availability, competition with other land uses, and the vulnerability of forests to natural disasters and human activities.

Agricultural Practices (Carbon Farming)

Carbon farming encompasses agricultural methods designed to enhance carbon storage in soil, crop roots, wood, and leaves, aiming for a net reduction of atmospheric carbon. Key strategies involve increasing soil organic carbon content through practices like adjusting tillage and livestock grazing, utilizing organic mulches and compost, and integrating biochar and terra preta. Sustainable forest management is also a component. While beneficial for soil health and water retention, challenges include potential increases in land clearing, monocultures, and biodiversity loss if not carefully managed.

Biomass Carbon Removal & Storage (BiCRS)

BiCRS represents a suite of technologies that leverage the photosynthetic power of plants to capture atmospheric carbon, then permanently or semi-permanently sequester the carbon-rich biomass. Unlike direct air capture, which uses engineered systems, BiCRS relies on natural plant growth followed by engineered storage solutions for agricultural waste or bioenergy byproducts. Challenges include accurately measuring sequestration, sourcing biomass sustainably without competing with food production, and ensuring long-term storage. Policy recommendations often emphasize limits on biomass types to prevent adverse environmental impacts.

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS)

BECCS combines bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage technology. In this process, biomass (e.g., energy crops, agricultural residues) is used to generate energy, and the CO2 released during combustion or processing is captured before it enters the atmosphere. This captured CO2 is then permanently stored, typically in geological formations. The net effect is a "negative emission" because the CO2 initially absorbed by the biomass from the atmosphere is prevented from returning to it.

Biochar Carbon Removal (BCR)

Biochar is a charcoal-like material produced through pyrolysis—heating biomass in a low-oxygen environment. This process converts organic matter into a stable carbon form that can be incorporated into soil for agricultural benefits, such as improved soil fertility and water retention. BCR is a method of carbon sequestration because biochar can store carbon for hundreds to thousands of years. Conservative estimates suggest biochar could sequester 1 gigaton of carbon per year, with potential for 5–9 gigatons with broader adoption. However, its scalability is limited by terrestrial carbon storage capacity and requires careful regulation to prevent leakage.

Direct Air Capture with Storage (DACCS)

Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies use chemical or physical processes to extract CO2 directly from ambient air. When this extracted CO2 is subsequently sequestered in safe, long-term geological storage, the combined process is known as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Sequestration (DACCS). These systems are classified as Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs). While energy-intensive and currently expensive, DACCS offers the advantage of requiring significantly less land area compared to nature-based solutions for equivalent CO2 capture rates, making it a promising, albeit developing, high-tech solution.

Marine CDR (mCDR)

Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) methods leverage the ocean's vast capacity to absorb and store carbon. These approaches include ocean fertilization, which involves introducing nutrients to the upper ocean to stimulate phytoplankton growth and enhance carbon uptake, though its permanence is limited to decades. Ocean alkalinity enhancement, another method, involves dissolving minerals like olivine or limestone in seawater to increase its CO2 absorption capacity and precipitate carbonate deposits. Electrochemical techniques, such as electrodialysis, can also remove carbonate from seawater, potentially becoming more cost-effective when integrated with processes like desalination.

Costs & Economics

Cost Variability Across Methods

The economic viability of CDR methods varies significantly based on technological maturity and the market value of any co-products. Nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and afforestation, are generally the least expensive, estimated at less than $50 per tonne of CO2. Biochar carbon removal (BCR) typically ranges from $200 to $584 per tonne, while Direct Air Capture (DAC) costs can range from $94 to $600 per tonne. These figures highlight the diverse economic landscape of CDR technologies, influenced by operational complexity, energy demands, and scalability.

Durability vs. Land Footprint

The market often assigns a higher value to CDR methods offering greater permanence. Biochar, for instance, commands a higher price than many nature-based solutions due to its ability to sequester carbon for hundreds or even thousands of years, mitigating risks from wildfires or policy changes. Conversely, while nature-based solutions are cost-effective, they demand substantial land. A DAC plant capturing 1 MtCO2 per year requires only 0.4–1.5 km2 of land, whereas achieving the same removal with trees would necessitate approximately 3,098–4,647 km2, illustrating a critical trade-off between land use and technological intensity.

Policy and Funding Landscape

Financing for high-tech CDR methods has historically lagged, but recent years have seen a substantial increase, largely driven by voluntary private sector initiatives. For example, a private sector alliance including Stripe, Meta, Google, and Shopify pledged nearly $1 billion in 2022 to support companies in permanent carbon capture and storage. While this represents significant growth, it is still a fraction of the market needed by 2050. Governments, including Sweden, Switzerland, and the US (e.g., through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Q tax credit), are also increasing their support, aiming to develop robust carbon removal markets and certification standards.

Other Gases

Beyond Carbon Dioxide

While Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) primarily focuses on CO2 due to its prevalence and feasibility of removal at scale, research is also exploring methods for other potent greenhouse gases. Methane (CH4) removal has been suggested, but some researchers argue that nitrous oxide (N2O) might be a more impactful target for removal research due to its significantly longer atmospheric lifetime. Developing technologies for these non-CO2 greenhouse gases could offer additional pathways for comprehensive climate change mitigation.

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References

References

A full list of references for this article are available at the Carbon dioxide removal Wikipedia page

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