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Sulawesi's Fury

An analysis of the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami, examining its geological causes, devastating impacts, and the subsequent response and aftermath.

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Event Overview

The Event

On 28 September 2018, a significant seismic event occurred: a shallow, powerful earthquake struck the Minahasa Peninsula in Indonesia. Its epicenter was located in the mountainous Donggala Regency of Central Sulawesi, impacting the provincial capital, Palu, approximately 70 km away.[9]

Associated Hazards

The earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.5–7.6 Mw, was preceded by a series of foreshocks.[24] Following the mainshock, a localized tsunami struck Palu, causing widespread destruction. Additionally, severe soil liquefaction occurred in several areas, leading to catastrophic mudflows.[18]

Human Toll

The combined effects of the earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent geological phenomena resulted in a tragic loss of life, with an estimated 4,340 fatalities.[6] Thousands more were injured, and a significant number were displaced, highlighting the profound human impact of the disaster.

Tectonic Setting

Plate Interactions

Sulawesi's location is geologically complex, situated within a zone where the Australian, Pacific, Philippine Sea, and Sunda plates interact.[12] This intricate tectonic environment is characterized by numerous microplates and significant fault activity.

The Palu-Koro Fault

The primary onshore structure influencing this region is the Palu-Koro fault, a left-lateral strike-slip fault trending NNW-SSE.[21] This fault system acts as a crucial boundary between tectonic blocks and exhibits a high slip rate, estimated between 30–40 mm per year, indicating substantial seismic potential.[22]

Seismic Risk

Studies have identified the Palu-Koro fault as representing a significant seismic risk in eastern Indonesia.[23] Its activity has been linked to several major earthquakes historically, and research in 2017 specifically highlighted its potential for catastrophic seismic events.

The Earthquake Event

Foreshocks

The seismic sequence began approximately three hours before the mainshock with a magnitude 6.1 foreshock, followed by several others.[25] These initial tremors were concentrated south of the main event's epicenter, indicating precursory stress release.

Mainshock Details

The primary earthquake occurred at 18:02 WITA (10:02 UTC) on 28 September 2018. Initial magnitude estimates varied (Mw 7.7), but were later refined to Mw 7.5–7.6.[9] The focal mechanism indicated strike-slip faulting, primarily along the Palu-Koro fault, with evidence suggesting a rupture length of about 150 km.[12]

Aftershocks

The mainshock was followed by numerous aftershocks. Within the first 24 hours, 14 events of magnitude M≥5.0 were recorded.[34] Over time, the region experienced a total of approximately 150 aftershocks, contributing to ongoing instability and damage.

Intensity

The earthquake generated intense shaking across a wide area. The maximum intensity (MMI X, Extreme) was felt in parts of Palu City.[36] Other areas experienced MMI VII to IX, causing moderate to severe damage to buildings, including bridges and hotels.

The Tsunami

Warning and Impact

A tsunami warning was issued shortly after the mainshock.[13] However, the tsunami's height, estimated between 4 to 7 meters (and potentially up to 10.7 meters in Donggala),[3] exceeded initial predictions and the capacity of warning systems, which were damaged by the earthquake.

Causes and Amplification

While strike-slip earthquakes typically generate smaller tsunamis, the 2018 Sulawesi event was unusually large. Theories suggest this may have been due to triggered underwater landslides or rapid rupture speeds, potentially causing significant vertical seafloor displacement.[47] The tsunami's force was further amplified as it entered the narrow bay of Palu.[44]

Warning System Failure

Critically, tsunami detectors in Palu were damaged by the earthquake, preventing timely alerts.[43] Communication failures and the continuation of a local festival meant many residents were caught unaware, exacerbating the devastating impact.

Widespread Damage

Residential and Infrastructure

The earthquake and tsunami caused extensive destruction. Over 70,000 houses were damaged, forcing tens of thousands into temporary shelters.[49] Key infrastructure, including Palu's Mutiara SIS Al-Jufrie Airport, major bridges like the Kuning Ponulele Bridge, roads, and ports, suffered severe damage or were destroyed.[59]

Public Buildings

Public facilities were also heavily impacted. Hospitals, including Antapura Hospital, collapsed or were severely damaged. Numerous mosques were affected, with some sustaining significant damage and others partially submerged. Educational institutions also suffered widespread damage, requiring extensive rebuilding efforts.[50]

Economic Impact

The total estimated damage from the earthquake, tsunami, and liquefaction reached approximately Rp 24.6 trillion (US$1.71 billion), with Palu alone accounting for Rp 23.9 trillion (US$1.66 billion).[1] This reflects the immense scale of destruction across the affected region.

Soil Liquefaction & Mudflows

The Phenomenon

A particularly devastating consequence was widespread soil liquefaction, especially in areas like Petobo and Balaroa near Palu. This geological process occurs when saturated soil temporarily loses strength and behaves like a liquid during seismic shaking, leading to ground collapse and lateral spreading.[18]

Catastrophic Mudflows

In Petobo and Balaroa, liquefaction triggered massive mudflows. Buildings and entire villages were submerged or swept away. Reports indicate that thousands of houses sank into the ground, and vast areas were dramatically reshaped, burying victims and destroying communities.[19]

Scale of Liquefaction

The liquefaction events were described as unprecedented, with affected areas shifting significantly. Petobo saw an estimated 180 hectares affected, while Balaroa experienced a 47.8-hectare shift. Sigi Regency also reported extensive liquefaction, with one village reportedly disappearing entirely.[78]

Human Cost

Fatalities and Injuries

The disaster resulted in a staggering number of casualties. Official figures indicate 4,340 confirmed deaths, with over 10,000 injured, many seriously. Additionally, 667 individuals were reported missing, presumed dead.[6]

Displacement

The destruction of homes and infrastructure led to massive displacement. As of late October 2018, over 70,000 people were evacuated, and by April 2020, more than 200,000 individuals were still classified as refugees, highlighting the long-term housing crisis.[8]

Long-Term Impact

The aftermath revealed the scale of the tragedy, with thousands still without adequate housing or access to essential services even a year later, compounded by the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic.[169]

Response Efforts

National Coordination

The Indonesian government, led by President Joko Widodo, mobilized national resources, including the military and disaster management agencies. An emergency period was declared and extended, focusing on search and rescue, establishing temporary facilities, and coordinating aid distribution.[99]

International Aid

Following an official request for assistance, numerous countries and international organizations provided humanitarian aid. This included financial contributions, medical supplies, food, water, tents, and specialized search and rescue teams, demonstrating global solidarity.[147]

Private Sector and NGOs

Beyond government efforts, private companies like Google and Apple, along with NGOs such as the Tzu Chi Foundation and The Salvation Army, contributed significantly through donations, technological support (SOS alerts, free communication), and on-the-ground relief operations.[167]

Challenges in Aid Delivery

Aid delivery faced significant hurdles due to the widespread destruction of roads and airport infrastructure. Fuel shortages and looting also complicated relief efforts, requiring robust security measures and logistical coordination to ensure aid reached those in need.[49]

Aftermath and Recovery

Reconstruction

The long-term recovery involved extensive rebuilding of damaged homes, infrastructure, and public facilities. The government designated certain heavily impacted areas, like Petobo and Balaroa, as memorial parks due to the scale of loss.[78]

Educational Impact

Thousands of schools were damaged, affecting hundreds of thousands of students and teachers. Rebuilding and repair efforts were projected to take at least a year, with universities offering temporary study opportunities for affected students.[67]

Accountability and Lessons

The disaster prompted reviews of disaster preparedness, warning systems, and response protocols. The government faced criticism regarding the effectiveness of tsunami warnings and the subsequent management of aid distribution and security.[41]

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References

References

  1.  ANSS: Sulawesi 2018, Finite fault (accessed 28 September 2018).
A full list of references for this article are available at the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami Wikipedia page

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Disclaimer

Important Notice

This content has been generated by an AI model for educational purposes, drawing information from publicly available data. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy and comprehensiveness, it is based on a snapshot of information and may not reflect the absolute latest developments or nuances.

This is not a substitute for professional geological, engineering, or disaster management advice. The information provided is intended for general understanding and should not be used for critical decision-making regarding safety, preparedness, or response without consulting qualified experts and official sources. Natural disasters are complex events, and specific circumstances require specialized knowledge.

The creators of this page are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any actions taken based on the information provided herein. Always consult official disaster management agencies and scientific bodies for authoritative information.