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Fiscal Foresight

An authoritative guide to the nonpartisan agency providing crucial budget and economic analysis to the U.S. Congress.

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About the CBO

A Legislative Arm

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a nonpartisan federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. Its primary function is to provide Congress with objective, impartial, and timely analyses of budgetary and economic issues to aid in the Congressional budget process.

Origins and Mandate

Established by the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, the CBO was inspired by California's Legislative Analyst's Office. Its creation aimed to equip Congress with independent fiscal expertise, reducing reliance on the executive branch's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and strengthening Congress's "power of the purse."

Credibility and Nonpartisanship

Despite occasional political criticism when its findings are inconvenient, the CBO is widely respected. Economists and academics largely affirm its nonpartisan nature and the credibility of its forecasts. It operates under strict legal constraints, ensuring its analyses are objective, regardless of the political party in power.

History and Evolution

Establishment and Early Years

The CBO officially began operations on February 24, 1975, with Alice Rivlin as its first director. Its founding occurred during a period of tension between a Democratic-controlled Congress and President Richard Nixon, highlighting Congress's desire for greater fiscal autonomy and analytical capacity.

The Director is jointly appointed by the Speaker of the House and the President pro tempore of the Senate, serving a four-year term. The following individuals have led the agency:

Director Term
Alice Rivlin February 24, 1975 – August 31, 1983
Rudolph G. Penner September 1, 1983 – April 28, 1987
Edward Gramlich (Acting) April 28, 1987 – December 1987
James L. Blum (Acting) December 1987 – March 6, 1989
Robert Reischauer March 6, 1989 – February 28, 1995
June E. O'Neill March 1, 1995 – January 29, 1999
James L. Blum (Acting) January 29, 1999 – February 3, 1999
Dan Crippen February 3, 1999 – January 3, 2003
Barry B. Anderson (Acting) January 3, 2003 – February 5, 2003
Douglas Holtz-Eakin February 5, 2003 – December 29, 2005
Donald B. Marron Jr. (Acting) December 29, 2005 – January 18, 2007
Peter R. Orszag January 18, 2007 – November 25, 2008
Robert A. Sunshine (Acting) November 25, 2008 – January 22, 2009
Douglas Elmendorf January 22, 2009 – March 31, 2015
Keith Hall April 1, 2015 – May 31, 2019
Phillip Swagel June 3, 2019 – present

Authority and Influence

Over time, the CBO has become a primary source of fiscal and budget information for Congress, the media, and the public, often supplanting the OMB in perceived authority. Its analyses are crucial for legislative decision-making, providing baseline projections and cost estimates that shape policy debates.

Core Mission

Objective Analysis

The CBO's fundamental mission is to provide Congress with independent, nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues. This includes producing baseline projections of federal spending and revenue, estimating the costs and budgetary effects of proposed legislation, and conducting studies on various economic topics.

No Policy Recommendations

Crucially, the CBO does not make policy recommendations. Its role is strictly analytical, presenting findings and projections based on established economic principles and methodologies. This commitment to objectivity is central to its function and credibility.

Key Operations

Budgetary Projections

Annually, the CBO releases its Economic and Budget Outlook, providing baseline projections for federal spending, revenues, deficits, and the national debt over the next decade. A mid-year update is also published. These projections serve as a benchmark against which proposed legislation is measured.

Legislative Cost Estimates

For nearly every bill reported out of committee by either the House or Senate, the CBO provides an estimate of its cost or budgetary impact. This "scorekeeping" is vital for understanding the fiscal consequences of proposed laws and ensuring compliance with budget rules.

Policy Analysis

Beyond routine projections and estimates, the CBO undertakes in-depth studies on specific policy areas, such as healthcare, taxation, national security, and the environment. These reports offer detailed analysis and data to inform congressional deliberations on complex issues.

Organizational Structure

Nine Specialized Divisions

The CBO is structured into nine divisions, each focusing on specific areas of budgetary and economic analysis:

  • Budget Analysis
  • Financial Analysis
  • Health Analysis
  • Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis
  • Macroeconomic Analysis
  • Management, Business, and Information Services
  • Microeconomic Studies
  • National Security
  • Tax Analysis

Reception and Reputation

Expert Consensus

Leading economists and academics generally hold the CBO in high regard. Surveys indicate a strong consensus that, despite inherent forecasting challenges and legal constraints, the CBO produces credible analyses and forecasts for legislation from both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Objective Insights

Experts like David Autor and Christopher Udry emphasize the CBO's track record of accuracy and lack of systematic partisan bias. Walter E. Williams noted its reputation for "honest numbers," while the Los Angeles Times reported its projections compare favorably to other institutions. George Washington University's Sarah Binder highlights the agency's nonpartisan staff culture, insulated by budget committees.

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References

References

A full list of references for this article are available at the Congressional Budget Office Wikipedia page

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Disclaimer

Important Notice

This page was generated by an Artificial Intelligence and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The content is based on a snapshot of publicly available data from Wikipedia and may not be entirely accurate, complete, or up-to-date.

This is not official government information or policy advice. The information provided on this website is not a substitute for consulting official Congressional Budget Office publications or seeking advice from qualified financial or policy professionals. Always refer to official sources for the most current and accurate information.

The creators of this page are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.