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The Forex Nexus

A Deep Dive into Global Currency Markets and Their Dynamics.

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What is Forex?

Global Decentralized Market

The foreign exchange market, commonly known as Forex or FX, is a global, decentralized over-the-counter (OTC) marketplace for the trading of international currencies. It establishes the foreign exchange rates for every currency worldwide. By trading volume, it stands as the largest financial market globally, significantly surpassing others like the credit market.[1]

Relative Value Determination

As currencies are always traded in pairs, the market does not establish an absolute value for a currency. Instead, it determines its relative value by setting the market price of one currency against another. For example, 1 USD might be equivalent to 1.1 EUR or 1.2 CHF. This intricate system facilitates international trade and investment by enabling seamless currency conversion.[2]

Interbank Operations

The primary participants in this market are major international banks. Financial centers act as hubs for trading activities between numerous buyers and sellers, operating around the clock, barring weekends. Behind the scenes, banks engage with specialized financial firms known as "dealers," who handle substantial trading volumes. This interbank market is characterized by large transactions, often involving hundreds of millions of dollars, and operates with minimal direct regulatory oversight due to the sovereign nature of currencies.[1]

Historical Evolution

Ancient Roots

The practice of currency exchange dates back to antiquity. Ancient texts, such as the Talmudic writings from biblical times, mention money changers operating from stalls, even within the Temple precincts. These individuals facilitated currency exchange, often taking a commission. The need for standardized exchange was evident even then, as merchants bartered based on the gold content of coins, highlighting the early importance of relative currency values.[4][5]

Medieval and Early Modern Trade

During the 15th century, prominent banking families like the Medici established banks in foreign locations to facilitate currency exchange for textile merchants. They developed sophisticated accounting methods, including the "nostro" account, to track foreign and local currency balances. By the 17th and 18th centuries, cities like Amsterdam were active Forex trading centers, demonstrating the growing integration of financial markets across Europe.[10][16]

Modernization and Bretton Woods

The modern foreign exchange market began to take shape in the 1970s, following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. This system, established after World War II, had imposed government restrictions on foreign exchange transactions and maintained fixed exchange rates. The transition to floating exchange rates marked a significant shift, increasing market activity and complexity. The introduction of electronic trading platforms, like Reuters monitors in 1973, further revolutionized how currency transactions were conducted.[1][30][43]

Market Scale and Liquidity

Unparalleled Volume

The foreign exchange market is distinguished by its immense liquidity, making it the most liquid financial market globally. As of April 2022, the average daily turnover reached approximately $7.5 trillion USD. This vast volume is distributed across various instruments, with foreign exchange swaps and spot transactions constituting the largest portions.[3]

Continuous Operation

A key characteristic of the Forex market is its continuous operation, functioning 24 hours a day, five days a week. Trading commences with the opening of Asian markets and progresses through European and North American sessions before returning to Asia. This constant activity ensures high liquidity and accessibility for participants across different time zones.[1]

Geographic Dispersion

The market is geographically dispersed, with major trading centers located in London, New York City, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore. London remains the dominant hub, accounting for a significant portion of global foreign exchange trading volume. This widespread presence contributes to the market's efficiency and deep liquidity.[3]

Key Market Participants

Banks and Dealers

The interbank foreign exchange market forms the top tier, comprising major commercial and investment banks. These institutions, along with specialized dealers, handle the largest transaction volumes. Access to liquidity often depends on established relationships and the size of trading lines, with the interbank market accounting for a substantial portion of overall transactions.[65]

Corporations and Institutions

Commercial companies utilize Forex markets to facilitate international trade and manage currency risk associated with cross-border transactions, such as paying for imports or managing payroll. Investment management firms, including pension funds and mutual funds, engage in Forex to facilitate international securities trading and manage currency exposures for their portfolios.[67]

Retail and Non-Bank Entities

Retail traders participate indirectly through brokers, engaging in speculative trading. Non-bank foreign exchange companies and bureaux de change cater to individuals and smaller businesses, offering currency exchange and payment services, often emphasizing competitive rates compared to traditional banks.[71]

Factors Influencing Rates

Economic Indicators

Exchange rates are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors. These include government fiscal and monetary policies, budget deficits or surpluses, trade balances, inflation rates, and overall economic health reflected in GDP growth and employment data. Productivity levels also play a role, particularly in the traded goods sector.[1]

Political Stability

Political conditions, both domestic and international, can profoundly impact currency markets. Political instability, shifts in government policy, or geopolitical events can lead to currency volatility. Conversely, perceived fiscal responsibility or stability can bolster a currency's value.[1]

Market Psychology

Trader sentiment and market psychology play a crucial role. Events triggering a "flight to quality" can drive demand towards perceived safe-haven currencies like the US dollar or Swiss franc. Trends, rumors, and the interpretation of economic data ("buy the rumor, sell the fact") can also influence short-term price movements.[80]

Trading Instruments

Spot Market

Spot transactions involve the immediate exchange of currencies, typically settling within two business days (with exceptions for certain currency pairs). This is the most common form of Forex trading, involving the direct cash exchange of one currency for another.[1]

Forwards and NDFs

Forward contracts allow parties to agree on an exchange rate for a future transaction date, mitigating foreign exchange risk. Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) are derivative contracts used for currencies with trading restrictions, where only the price difference is settled, not the physical currency.[83]

Swaps and Futures

Foreign exchange swaps involve exchanging currencies for a set period and then reversing the transaction. Currency futures are standardized forward contracts traded on exchanges, offering daily settlement and reducing credit risk. Both are used for hedging and speculation.[84]

Options

Foreign exchange options grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to exchange currencies at a predetermined rate on a specific date. The FX options market is known for its depth, size, and liquidity.

Speculation and Its Role

Stabilizing vs. Destabilizing

The role of currency speculators is a subject of debate. Proponents, like Milton Friedman, argue that speculators provide market stability by offering hedging opportunities and transferring risk. Critics, such as Joseph Stiglitz, suggest that speculation can be destabilizing and interfere with economic policy, citing instances like the 1992 Swedish interest rate hike.[85][86]

Safe Havens

During periods of global economic or political uncertainty, investors often seek refuge in "safe-haven" currencies. Traditional safe havens include the US dollar, Swiss franc, and gold, which tend to appreciate as risk aversion increases. This behavior was notably observed during the 2008 financial crisis.[91]

Technical Analysis

Many traders employ technical analysis, studying price charts and patterns to predict future currency movements. While economic and political factors drive long-term trends, short-term price action can often be influenced by chart patterns and trading algorithms.[82]

The Carry Trade Strategy

Mechanism and Profitability

A currency carry trade involves borrowing a currency with a low interest rate to finance the purchase of another currency with a higher interest rate. The profit potential arises from the interest rate differential, which can be amplified through leverage. However, this strategy carries significant risk, as adverse exchange rate movements can lead to substantial losses.[84]

Associated Risks

The primary risk in a carry trade is the potential for the higher-yielding currency to depreciate against the lower-yielding currency. Such a depreciation can quickly erode any interest rate gains and result in significant capital losses, especially when high leverage is employed. Market volatility and shifts in interest rate expectations are key factors influencing the success of this strategy.

Currency Market Share

Top Currencies by Trading Volume

The following table illustrates the proportion of global foreign exchange market turnover attributed to major currencies, based on data from April 2022. Note that the total percentage exceeds 100% because each transaction involves two currencies.

Most traded currencies by value
Currency distribution of global foreign exchange market turnover
Currency ISO Code April 2019 (%) April 2022 (%) Change (2019-2022)
U.S. dollar USD 88.3% 88.5% Increase 0.2pp
Euro EUR 32.3% 30.5% Decrease 1.8pp
Japanese yen JPY 16.8% 16.7% Decrease 0.1pp
Pound sterling GBP 12.8% 12.9% Increase 0.1pp
Renminbi CNY 4.3% 7.0% Increase 2.7pp
Australian dollar AUD 6.8% 6.4% Decrease 0.4pp
Canadian dollar CAD 5.0% 6.2% Increase 1.2pp
Swiss franc CHF 4.9% 5.2% Increase 0.3pp
Hong Kong dollar HKD 3.5% 2.6% Decrease 0.9pp
Singapore dollar SGD 1.8% 2.4% Increase 0.6pp
Swedish krona SEK 2.0% 2.2% Increase 0.2pp
South Korean won KRW 2.0% 1.9% Decrease 0.1pp
Norwegian krone NOK 1.8% 1.7% Decrease 0.1pp
New Zealand dollar NZD 2.1% 1.7% Decrease 0.4pp
Indian rupee INR 1.7% 1.6% Decrease 0.1pp
Mexican peso MXN 1.7% 1.5% Decrease 0.2pp
New Taiwan dollar TWD 0.9% 1.1% Increase 0.2pp
South African rand ZAR 1.1% 1.0% Decrease 0.1pp
Brazilian real BRL 1.1% 0.9% Decrease 0.2pp
Danish krone DKK 0.6% 0.7% Increase 0.1pp
Polish zloty PLN 0.6% 0.7% Increase 0.1pp
Thai baht THB 0.5% 0.4% Decrease 0.1pp
Israeli new shekel ILS 0.3% 0.4% Increase 0.1pp
Indonesian rupiah IDR 0.4% 0.4% Steady
Czech koruna CZK 0.4% 0.4% Steady
UAE dirham AED 0.2% 0.4% Increase 0.2pp
Turkish lira TRY 1.1% 0.4% Decrease 0.7pp
Hungarian forint HUF 0.4% 0.3% Decrease 0.1pp
Chilean peso CLP 0.3% 0.3% Steady
Saudi riyal SAR 0.2% 0.2% Steady
Philippine peso PHP 0.3% 0.2% Decrease 0.1pp
Malaysian ringgit MYR 0.2% 0.2% Steady
Colombian peso COP 0.2% 0.2% Steady
Russian ruble RUB 1.1% 0.2% Decrease 0.9pp
Romanian leu RON 0.1% 0.1% Steady
Peruvian sol PEN 0.1% 0.1% Steady
Other currencies 2.0% 2.4% Increase 0.4pp
Total[a] 200.0% 200.0%

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References

References

  1.  Record, Neil, Currency Overlay (Wiley Finance Series)
  2.  "Derivatives in emerging markets", the Bank for International Settlements, 13 December 2010
  3.  "The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?, the Bank for International Settlements, 13 December 2010
  4.  The Sunday Times (London), 16 July 2006
  5.  The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates, Richard Lyons, MIT Press (pdf chapter 1)
  6.  John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (New York Institute of Finance, 1999), pp. 343–375.
  7.  What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis Joseph Stiglitz, The New Republic, 17 April 2000, reprinted at GlobalPolicy.org
  8.  Lawrence Summers and Summers VP (1989) 'When financial markets work too well: a Cautious case for a securities transaction tax' Journal of financial services
  9.  Gregory J. Millman, Around the World on a Trillion Dollars a Day, Bantam Press, New York, 1995.
A full list of references for this article are available at the Foreign exchange market Wikipedia page

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