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Echoes of Dรฉtente: The INF Treaty's Rise and Fall

An in-depth analysis of the landmark arms control agreement that reshaped Cold War security and its eventual dissolution.

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The INF Treaty

A Landmark Agreement

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) was a pivotal arms control agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union, later succeeded by the Russian Federation. Signed on December 8, 1987, by US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, it became effective on June 1, 1988, following ratification by the US Senate. This treaty represented a significant step towards nuclear disarmament during the Cold War era.

Scope of Prohibition

The INF Treaty specifically banned all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, along with their associated launchers, for both nations, within a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310โ€“3,420 miles). This prohibition applied to both nuclear and conventional warheads. Crucially, the treaty did not extend to air- or sea-launched missiles, focusing solely on land-based systems that posed a direct threat to European security.

Elimination and Expiration

By May 1991, the treaty had led to the verifiable elimination of 2,692 missiles by both parties, followed by a decade of on-site verification inspections. However, the treaty's lifespan concluded with the US withdrawal on August 2, 2019, citing Russian non-compliance. Russia subsequently announced it would no longer abide by the treaty as of August 4, 2025, marking the end of this historic arms control regime.

Treaty Overview

For a concise summary of the INF Treaty's key parameters, refer to the table below:

Attribute Detail
Type Nuclear disarmament
Signed 8 December 1987
Location White House, Washington, D.C., United States
Effective 1 June 1988
Condition Ratification by the Soviet Union and United States
Expiration 2 August 2019 (U.S. withdrawal)
4 August 2025 (Russia withdrawal)
Signatories Mikhail Gorbachev (Soviet Union), Ronald Reagan (United States)
Parties Soviet Union, United States
Languages English and Russian

Historical Background

The SS-20 Catalyst

The genesis of the INF Treaty can be traced to the Soviet Union's deployment of the RSD-10 Pioneer missile (known as SS-20 Saber in the West) in March 1976. This mobile, concealable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) carried three 150-kiloton nuclear warheads, with a range of 4,700โ€“5,000 kilometers. Its advanced capabilities, including greater accuracy and mobility, made it a significant threat to Western Europe, replacing older, less capable systems like the SS-4 Sandal and SS-5 Skean, which were largely seen as defensive.

NATO's Double-Track Decision

Initially, the United States considered its existing strategic nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter the SS-20. However, growing concerns in Europe, particularly voiced by West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in 1977, prompted NATO to seek a more direct response. This led to the landmark NATO Double-Track Decision on December 12, 1979. This policy pursued two simultaneous paths:

  • Negotiation: The US would engage in bilateral talks with the Soviet Union to limit theater nuclear forces.
  • Modernization: If negotiations failed, NATO would modernize its own intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) by deploying 108 Pershing II launchers in West Germany and 464 BGM-109G Ground Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs) across several European nations, beginning in December 1983.

This decision aimed to counter the perceived Western disadvantage in European nuclear forces and pressure the Soviets into arms control talks.

The Negotiation Process

Early Standoffs (1981-1983)

Preliminary INF talks commenced in Geneva in October 1980, amidst strained US-Soviet relations following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Formal negotiations began on November 30, 1981, with US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev leading their respective delegations. The US, led by Paul Nitze, insisted on reciprocal limits and a robust verification regime. Reagan's "Zero Option" proposal in November 1981, calling for the elimination of all US and Soviet intermediate-range missiles, was popular in Europe but rejected by the Soviets, who sought to retain some missiles while blocking US deployments.

  • US Zero Option (Nov 1981): US would forgo GLCM and Pershing II deployments if the Soviets eliminated their SS-4, SS-5, and SS-20 missiles.
  • Soviet Counter-Proposal (Feb 1982): Cap INF missiles and aircraft in Europe at 600 by 1985 and 300 by 1990, which the US rejected as it would disproportionately affect their forces.
  • "Walk in the Woods" (Summer 1982): An informal attempt by Paul Nitze and Yuli Kvitsinsky to break the deadlock, proposing mutual limits on GLCMs and IRBMs. This initiative, though ultimately rejected by both Washington and Moscow, demonstrated a genuine desire for progress and improved public perception of US commitment to arms control.
  • US Revised Stance (Early 1983): Signaled willingness to move beyond the Zero Option, provided equal worldwide limits, exclusion of British and French systems, and a temporary cap of 450 deployed INF warheads.
  • Soviet Response (Early 1983): Demanded a block on all US INF deployments in Europe, inclusion of aircraft, and consideration of third-party forces.

Negotiations stalled in November 1983 after the first US Pershing II missiles arrived in West Germany, leading the Soviet Union to walk out of talks.

Renewed Dialogue (1985-1987)

Negotiations resumed in March 1986, broadening to include Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) and space issues. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher played a crucial role in facilitating dialogue between Reagan and the new Soviet General Secretary, Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev's January 1986 proposal for a global ban on all nuclear weapons by 2000, including INF missiles in Europe, was met with skepticism by the US as a public relations maneuver.

  • US Counter-Proposal: A phased reduction of INF launchers in Europe and Asia, aiming for zero by 1989, without imposing constraints on British and French nuclear forces.
  • Reykjavรญk Summit (Oct 1986): A pivotal meeting where Reagan and Gorbachev agreed in principle to remove INF systems from Europe and establish equal global limits of 100 INF missile warheads.
  • German Concession (Aug 1987): West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl's decision to remove the joint US-West German Pershing 1a systems significantly advanced the treaty's prospects, overcoming initial resistance.

The treaty text was finalized in September 1987 and formally signed in Washington on December 8, 1987, marking a monumental achievement in Cold War diplomacy.

Treaty Content

Core Provisions

The INF Treaty was remarkably comprehensive in its prohibitions. It explicitly banned both the United States and the Soviet Union from possessing, producing, or flight-testing ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310โ€“3,420 miles). This ban also extended to the ground-based launchers designed for these missiles. A critical aspect was its application to both nuclear and conventional warheads, ensuring a broad scope of disarmament for these specific weapon categories.

Verification and Withdrawal

To ensure compliance, the treaty mandated the destruction of all existing prohibited weapons and established a rigorous protocol for mutual on-site inspections. This unprecedented level of transparency was a cornerstone of the agreement. Furthermore, the treaty included a clause allowing either party to withdraw with six months' notice if "extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests," a provision that would later become central to its dissolution.

Implementation & Legacy

Missile Destruction

By the treaty's deadline of June 1, 1991, both the United States and the Soviet Union had successfully destroyed a total of 2,692 prohibited weapons. The US eliminated 846 missiles, while the Soviet Union destroyed 1,846. This included a range of specific missile types and their associated launcher and transporter systems.

United States:

  • BGM-109G Ground Launched Cruise Missile (decommissioned)
  • Pershing 1a (decommissioned)
  • Pershing II (decommissioned)

Soviet Union (by NATO reporting name):

  • SS-4 Sandal (decommissioned)
  • SS-5 Skean (decommissioned)
  • SS-12 Scaleboard (decommissioned)
  • SS-20 Saber (decommissioned)
  • SS-23 Spider (decommissioned)
  • SSC-X-4 Slingshot

Post-Soviet Continuity

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the United States engaged with the newly independent states to ensure the continuity of arms control obligations. While the immediate focus was on the START I treaty, efforts were also made to maintain the INF Treaty. Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine formally agreed to continue fulfilling the treaty's terms. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan participated passively due to the presence of single inspection sites within their borders. On-site inspections continued until May 31, 2001, as stipulated by the 13-year inspection agreement. After this period, both the US and Russia continued to exchange national technical means of verification and notifications, and Special Verification Committees met regularly, with the final meeting in November 2016.

Allegations of Violations

Russian Concerns and Accusations

In February 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly questioned the INF Treaty's relevance, arguing it unfairly restricted only Russia and the US while other nations developed similar capabilities. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Yuri Baluyevsky, even suggested a unilateral withdrawal in response to NATO's missile defense system deployment in Europe. US officials later accused Russia of violating the treaty in 2008 by testing the SSC-8 cruise missile, which they claimed had a range of 3,000 km. Russia, however, maintained the SSC-8's maximum range was only 480 km, thus not violating the treaty. Further US allegations in 2013, 2014, and 2017 pointed to Russian testing of the SS-25 and RS-26 ICBMs in ways that could breach the agreement.

US Actions Under Scrutiny

Conversely, Russian officials and some American academics, such as Theodore Postol, argued that the US deployment of its missile defense system in Europe constituted a treaty violation. They contended that these systems could be quickly retrofitted with offensive capabilities. This claim was consistently rejected by US and NATO officials, including academic Jeffrey Lewis. Russian experts also raised concerns that US target missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like the MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-4 Triton violated the treaty, an accusation also denied by US officials. These mutual accusations highlighted a growing distrust and differing interpretations of the treaty's boundaries.

The China Factor

Beyond the bilateral US-Russia disputes, the non-participation of China in the INF Treaty emerged as a significant concern. As early as 2011, analysts like Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute noted that China's unconstrained buildup of intermediate-range forces posed a problem for Russia. This concern was echoed by US officials, including those from the Obama administration, who observed China's ability to operate outside the treaty's restrictions. The deployment of China's DF-26 IRBM, with a range of 4,000 km, capable of threatening US forces as far as Guam, further intensified these anxieties and became a key justification for the eventual US withdrawal.

Withdrawal & Termination

US Announcement and Russian Response

On October 20, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the INF Treaty, primarily citing Russia's persistent non-compliance, particularly with the SSC-8 missile. This decision also aimed to address China's unconstrained missile development in the Pacific. In response, President Putin declared that Russia would not initiate a nuclear conflict but would "annihilate" any adversary, invoking the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction." He also stated that Russians killed in such a conflict "will go to heaven as martyrs."

The Countdown to Collapse

The US formally suspended its compliance with the treaty on February 2, 2019, initiating a six-month period for Russia to return to compliance. Russia swiftly followed suit the next day, announcing its own suspension of the treaty as a "mirror response." During this period, Russia began developing new intermediate-range hypersonic missiles and land-based 3M-54 Kalibr systems, which are nuclear-capable. Despite a summit on January 30, 2019, failing to preserve the treaty, Russia attempted to demonstrate the 9M729 (SSC-8) missile to foreign military attachรฉs, an offer the US declined, citing inability to verify its true range.

Formal End and Aftermath

The United States officially withdrew from the INF Treaty on August 2, 2019, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stating that "Russia is solely responsible for the treaty's demise." This withdrawal, backed by most NATO allies who cited Russian non-compliance, paved the way for the US Department of Defense to announce plans for testing new missile types previously prohibited. On August 18, 2019, the US conducted a test firing of a ground-based Tomahawk cruise missile, a system similar to those banned by the treaty. Russia's foreign ministry expressed regret, accusing the US of escalating military tensions. President Putin declared on August 5, 2019, that "the INF Treaty no longer exists... a thing of the past," and Russia announced it would no longer abide by the treaty as of August 4, 2025. This period also saw the development and deployment of the Typhon Medium Range Capability weapon system by the US in 2023.

Reactions & Implications

Concerns from Arms Control Experts

The US withdrawal from the INF Treaty drew significant criticism from prominent nuclear arms control experts, including George Shultz, Richard Lugar, and Sam Nunn, who urged the Trump administration to preserve the agreement. Mikhail Gorbachev, a signatory to the original treaty, sharply criticized Trump's decision as "not the work of a great mind" and warned of a "new arms race." Leaders of the US House Committees on Foreign Affairs and Armed Services, Eliot Engel and Adam Smith, argued that the withdrawal inadvertently played into Russia's hands by offering an easy exit from its treaty obligations.

International Perspectives

While most NATO allies supported the US withdrawal, acknowledging years of Russian non-compliance, some European members initially urged the US to seek Russia's return to compliance rather than abandoning the treaty. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested the possibility of expanding the INF Treaty to include other nuclear powers like China and India, an idea that both the US and Russia had shown some openness to, though Russia expressed skepticism about its feasibility. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, for its part, warned of negative impacts from a unilateral US withdrawal and urged the US to "think thrice before acting."

Ukraine's Stance and Broader Context

In March 2019, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry asserted its right to develop intermediate-range missiles following the treaty's collapse, citing Russian aggression and the presence of Russian Iskander-M systems in annexed Crimea as serious threats. This highlighted how the treaty's demise could lead to regional arms buildups. Brazilian journalist Augusto Dall'Agnol noted that the INF Treaty's termination should be viewed within the broader context of a gradual erosion of the strategic arms control regime, which began with the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002, despite Russian objections. This suggests a long-term trend away from established arms limitation frameworks.

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References

References

  1.  The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a Glance, Arms Control Association, August 2019.
  2.  "Senate Votes 93-5 to Approve Ratification of the INF Treaty", CQ Weekly Report 42#22 (1988): 1431รขย€ย“35.
A full list of references for this article are available at the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty Wikipedia page

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