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Understanding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Phenomena, Impacts, and Projections

At a Glance

Title: Understanding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Phenomena, Impacts, and Projections

Total Categories: 5

Category Stats

  • ENSO: Core Concepts and Phases: 8 flashcards, 8 questions
  • ENSO: Mechanisms and Dynamics: 10 flashcards, 8 questions
  • ENSO: Monitoring, Variations, and Related Phenomena: 9 flashcards, 12 questions
  • ENSO: Global and Regional Impacts: 28 flashcards, 26 questions
  • ENSO: Historical Context and Future Projections: 11 flashcards, 5 questions

Total Stats

  • Total Flashcards: 66
  • True/False Questions: 30
  • Multiple Choice Questions: 29
  • Total Questions: 59

Instructions

Click the button to expand the instructions for how to use the Wiki2Web Teacher studio in order to print, edit, and export data about Understanding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Phenomena, Impacts, and Projections

Welcome to Your Curriculum Command Center

This guide will turn you into a Wiki2web Studio power user. Let's unlock the features designed to give you back your weekends.

The Core Concept: What is a "Kit"?

Think of a Kit as your all-in-one digital lesson plan. It's a single, portable file that contains every piece of content for a topic: your subject categories, a central image, all your flashcards, and all your questions. The true power of the Studio is speed—once a kit is made (or you import one), you are just minutes away from printing an entire set of coursework.

Getting Started is Simple:

  • Create New Kit: Start with a clean slate. Perfect for a brand-new lesson idea.
  • Import & Edit Existing Kit: Load a .json kit file from your computer to continue your work or to modify a kit created by a colleague.
  • Restore Session: The Studio automatically saves your progress in your browser. If you get interrupted, you can restore your unsaved work with one click.

Step 1: Laying the Foundation (The Authoring Tools)

This is where you build the core knowledge of your Kit. Use the left-side navigation panel to switch between these powerful authoring modules.

⚙️ Kit Manager: Your Kit's Identity

This is the high-level control panel for your project.

  • Kit Name: Give your Kit a clear title. This will appear on all your printed materials.
  • Master Image: Upload a custom cover image for your Kit. This is essential for giving your content a professional visual identity, and it's used as the main graphic when you export your Kit as an interactive game.
  • Topics: Create the structure for your lesson. Add topics like "Chapter 1," "Vocabulary," or "Key Formulas." All flashcards and questions will be organized under these topics.

🃏 Flashcard Author: Building the Knowledge Blocks

Flashcards are the fundamental concepts of your Kit. Create them here to define terms, list facts, or pose simple questions.

  • Click "➕ Add New Flashcard" to open the editor.
  • Fill in the term/question and the definition/answer.
  • Assign the flashcard to one of your pre-defined topics.
  • To edit or remove a flashcard, simply use the ✏️ (Edit) or ❌ (Delete) icons next to any entry in the list.

✍️ Question Author: Assessing Understanding

Create a bank of questions to test knowledge. These questions are the engine for your worksheets and exams.

  • Click "➕ Add New Question".
  • Choose a Type: True/False for quick checks or Multiple Choice for more complex assessments.
  • To edit an existing question, click the ✏️ icon. You can change the question text, options, correct answer, and explanation at any time.
  • The Explanation field is a powerful tool: the text you enter here will automatically appear on the teacher's answer key and on the Smart Study Guide, providing instant feedback.

🔗 Intelligent Mapper: The Smart Connection

This is the secret sauce of the Studio. The Mapper transforms your content from a simple list into an interconnected web of knowledge, automating the creation of amazing study guides.

  • Step 1: Select a question from the list on the left.
  • Step 2: In the right panel, click on every flashcard that contains a concept required to answer that question. They will turn green, indicating a successful link.
  • The Payoff: When you generate a Smart Study Guide, these linked flashcards will automatically appear under each question as "Related Concepts."

Step 2: The Magic (The Generator Suite)

You've built your content. Now, with a few clicks, turn it into a full suite of professional, ready-to-use materials. What used to take hours of formatting and copying-and-pasting can now be done in seconds.

🎓 Smart Study Guide Maker

Instantly create the ultimate review document. It combines your questions, the correct answers, your detailed explanations, and all the "Related Concepts" you linked in the Mapper into one cohesive, printable guide.

📝 Worksheet & 📄 Exam Builder

Generate unique assessments every time. The questions and multiple-choice options are randomized automatically. Simply select your topics, choose how many questions you need, and generate:

  • A Student Version, clean and ready for quizzing.
  • A Teacher Version, complete with a detailed answer key and the explanations you wrote.

🖨️ Flashcard Printer

Forget wrestling with table layouts in a word processor. Select a topic, choose a cards-per-page layout, and instantly generate perfectly formatted, print-ready flashcard sheets.

Step 3: Saving and Collaborating

  • 💾 Export & Save Kit: This is your primary save function. It downloads the entire Kit (content, images, and all) to your computer as a single .json file. Use this to create permanent backups and share your work with others.
  • ➕ Import & Merge Kit: Combine your work. You can merge a colleague's Kit into your own or combine two of your lessons into a larger review Kit.

You're now ready to reclaim your time.

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Study Guide: Understanding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Phenomena, Impacts, and Projections

Study Guide: Understanding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Phenomena, Impacts, and Projections

ENSO: Core Concepts and Phases

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is primarily characterized by variations in sea surface temperatures and winds across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Answer: False

The source indicates ENSO variations occur across the tropical Pacific Ocean, not the Atlantic.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • How does ENSO influence global climate variability?: ENSO is a significant driver of internal climate variability, influencing weather patterns across much of the globe through teleconnections. El Niño events tend to cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency of these events can affect global temperature trends over decadal timescales.

El Niño is the cooling phase of the ENSO cycle, associated with below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Answer: False

El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, representing the warming phase of ENSO.

Related Concepts:

  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • How does ENSO influence the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean?: During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly due to reduced upwelling and the eastward movement of warm water. Conversely, during La Niña, these same regions experience cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures due to enhanced upwelling and the westward transport of warm water.

The Southern Oscillation is the oceanic component of ENSO, describing changes in sea surface temperatures.

Answer: False

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of ENSO, involving pressure variations, while sea surface temperature changes are the oceanic component.

Related Concepts:

  • How does the Southern Oscillation relate to El Niño and La Niña phases?: The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric part of ENSO, specifically an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. El Niño episodes are associated with lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific, resulting in a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Conversely, La Niña episodes feature higher pressure in the east and lower pressure in the west, corresponding to a positive SOI.
  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.
  • What is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and how is it calculated?: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the strength of the Southern Oscillation, the atmospheric component of ENSO. It is calculated by measuring the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti in the Pacific Ocean and Darwin, Australia, which is located on the Indian Ocean.

El Niño and La Niña events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last for approximately one year each.

Answer: True

El Niño and La Niña events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last for approximately one year each.

Related Concepts:

  • How frequently do El Niño and La Niña events occur, and what is their typical duration?: El Niño and La Niña events typically occur every two to seven years, with varying intensity. These events usually last for about a year each, interspersed with neutral periods of lower intensity. While El Niño events can be more intense, La Niña events may repeat more frequently and last longer.
  • How does ENSO influence global average surface temperatures?: El Niño events typically cause short-term spikes in the global average surface temperature, usually lasting about a year. Conversely, La Niña events tend to cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency and intensity of El Niño compared to La Niña events can influence global temperature trends over timescales of around ten years.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

La Niña phases are characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger trade winds.

Answer: True

La Niña phases are characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger trade winds.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the key characteristics of a La Niña phase?: A La Niña phase is characterized by a stronger Walker circulation, leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is accompanied by higher atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower pressure in the western Pacific. La Niña events typically result in increased strength of the Pacific trade winds and opposite rainfall effects in regions like Australia compared to El Niño.
  • How does ENSO influence the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean?: During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly due to reduced upwelling and the eastward movement of warm water. Conversely, during La Niña, these same regions experience cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures due to enhanced upwelling and the westward transport of warm water.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

What are the primary components of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

Answer: El Niño (warming phase) and La Niña (cooling phase), along with the Southern Oscillation (atmospheric component).

ENSO comprises three main components: El Niño (the warming phase), La Niña (the cooling phase), and the Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric pressure component).

Related Concepts:

  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • How does the Southern Oscillation relate to El Niño and La Niña phases?: The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric part of ENSO, specifically an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. El Niño episodes are associated with lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific, resulting in a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Conversely, La Niña episodes feature higher pressure in the east and lower pressure in the west, corresponding to a positive SOI.

Which phenomenon describes the atmospheric component of ENSO, involving an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific?

Answer: The Southern Oscillation

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of ENSO, characterized by fluctuations in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.
  • How does the Southern Oscillation relate to El Niño and La Niña phases?: The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric part of ENSO, specifically an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. El Niño episodes are associated with lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific, resulting in a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Conversely, La Niña episodes feature higher pressure in the east and lower pressure in the west, corresponding to a positive SOI.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

Which ENSO phase is characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and wind patterns?

Answer: Neutral phase

The neutral ENSO phase is characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and wind patterns.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • How does the neutral phase of ENSO differ from the El Niño and La Niña phases?: During the neutral ENSO phase, sea surface temperatures, tropical precipitation, and wind patterns are near their average conditions. This phase acts as a transition between the warm El Niño and cold La Niña phases, and other climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation may exert more influence on weather during these periods.
  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.

ENSO: Mechanisms and Dynamics

The Bjerknes feedback mechanism describes a negative feedback loop that stabilizes the ENSO cycle by counteracting temperature anomalies.

Answer: False

The Bjerknes feedback mechanism describes a positive feedback loop that reinforces ENSO states, not a negative feedback that stabilizes them.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Bjerknes feedback mechanism in the context of ENSO?: The Bjerknes feedback, identified by Jacob Bjerknes in 1969, describes a positive feedback loop between the atmosphere and ocean in the ENSO cycle. It explains how weaker easterly trade winds lead to a surge of warm surface waters eastward and reduced upwelling, resulting in warmer sea surface temperatures (El Niño). This warming, in turn, further weakens the Walker circulation and trade winds, reinforcing the El Niño state.

During an El Niño phase, the Walker circulation strengthens, leading to increased upwelling of cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Answer: False

During an El Niño phase, the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and upwelling of cold water decreases.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the relationship between ENSO and the Walker circulation?: The Walker circulation is an east-west atmospheric overturning circulation in the equatorial Pacific. During El Niño, warming in the eastern tropical Pacific weakens or reverses the downward branch of this circulation, while cooler conditions in the west lead to less rain and downward air, causing the Walker Circulation to weaken or even reverse.
  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.
  • How does ENSO influence the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean?: During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly due to reduced upwelling and the eastward movement of warm water. Conversely, during La Niña, these same regions experience cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures due to enhanced upwelling and the westward transport of warm water.

The 'atmospheric bridge' mechanism explains how ENSO's tropical convection generates Rossby waves that influence distant atmospheric circulation patterns.

Answer: True

The 'atmospheric bridge' mechanism explains how ENSO's tropical convection generates Rossby waves that influence distant atmospheric circulation patterns.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' concept in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' is a concept describing how ENSO-related changes in tropical convection and heat transfer generate Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns in distant regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific to global climate impacts.
  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' is a concept describing how ENSO-related changes in tropical convection and heat transfer generate Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns in distant regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific to global climate impacts.
  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' concept in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' refers to how ENSO, through enhanced deep convection over warm Pacific waters, generates Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation patterns and weather conditions in higher-latitude regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific variations to global climate impacts.

According to the Bjerknes feedback mechanism, what initial condition leads to the reinforcement of an El Niño state?

Answer: Weaker easterly trade winds leading to reduced upwelling and eastward movement of warm water.

Weaker easterly trade winds lead to reduced upwelling and the eastward movement of warm surface water, which are initial conditions that reinforce an El Niño state according to the Bjerknes feedback mechanism.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Bjerknes feedback mechanism in the context of ENSO?: The Bjerknes feedback, identified by Jacob Bjerknes in 1969, describes a positive feedback loop between the atmosphere and ocean in the ENSO cycle. It explains how weaker easterly trade winds lead to a surge of warm surface waters eastward and reduced upwelling, resulting in warmer sea surface temperatures (El Niño). This warming, in turn, further weakens the Walker circulation and trade winds, reinforcing the El Niño state.

What is a key characteristic of an El Niño phase regarding atmospheric circulation?

Answer: Weakening or reversal of the Walker circulation.

A key characteristic of an El Niño phase is the weakening or reversal of the Walker circulation.

Related Concepts:

  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.
  • What are the key characteristics of a La Niña phase?: A La Niña phase is characterized by a stronger Walker circulation, leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is accompanied by higher atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower pressure in the western Pacific. La Niña events typically result in increased strength of the Pacific trade winds and opposite rainfall effects in regions like Australia compared to El Niño.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

The 'atmospheric bridge' mechanism connects ENSO's tropical impacts to distant regions by generating what type of waves?

Answer: Rossby waves

The 'atmospheric bridge' mechanism connects ENSO's tropical impacts to distant regions by generating Rossby waves.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' concept in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' is a concept describing how ENSO-related changes in tropical convection and heat transfer generate Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns in distant regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific to global climate impacts.
  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' concept in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' refers to how ENSO, through enhanced deep convection over warm Pacific waters, generates Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation patterns and weather conditions in higher-latitude regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific variations to global climate impacts.
  • What is the 'atmospheric bridge' in ENSO teleconnections?: The 'atmospheric bridge' is a concept describing how ENSO-related changes in tropical convection and heat transfer generate Rossby waves. These waves then propagate poleward and eastward, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns in distant regions, thus connecting the tropical Pacific to global climate impacts.

What is the 'recharge oscillator' theory proposed to explain regarding ENSO?

Answer: How internal oceanic processes drive the periodical variation of ENSO.

The 'recharge oscillator' theory proposes that internal oceanic processes drive the periodical variation of ENSO.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the 'recharge oscillator' theory in relation to ENSO?: The 'recharge oscillator' theory is a proposed mechanism that explains the cyclical nature of ENSO by suggesting that internal oceanic processes, such as the buildup and release of heat and the movement of thermoclines, drive the transitions between El Niño and La Niña phases.
  • What is the 'recharge oscillator' theory in relation to ENSO?: The 'recharge oscillator' theory is a conceptual model that attempts to explain the periodical variation of sea surface temperature and thermocline depth in ENSO. It suggests that internal oceanic processes, rather than solely external forcing, drive the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña states.
  • What is the 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory related to ENSO?: The 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory proposes a mechanism by which oceanic processes might regulate or influence the strength and frequency of ENSO events. It suggests that feedback loops within the ocean-atmosphere system could contribute to the cyclical nature of El Niño and La Niña.

What is the 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory related to ENSO?

Answer: A proposed mechanism where oceanic processes might regulate or influence ENSO cycles.

The 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory is related to ENSO as a proposed mechanism where oceanic processes might regulate or influence ENSO cycles.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory related to ENSO?: The 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory proposes a physical mechanism that influences sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, potentially contributing to the regulation or modulation of ENSO cycles. It suggests that feedback loops within the ocean-atmosphere system could act to stabilize or destabilize ENSO conditions.
  • What is the 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory related to ENSO?: The 'ocean dynamical thermostat' theory proposes a mechanism by which oceanic processes might regulate or influence the strength and frequency of ENSO events. It suggests that feedback loops within the ocean-atmosphere system could contribute to the cyclical nature of El Niño and La Niña.
  • What is the 'recharge oscillator' theory in relation to ENSO?: The 'recharge oscillator' theory is a proposed mechanism that explains the cyclical nature of ENSO by suggesting that internal oceanic processes, such as the buildup and release of heat and the movement of thermoclines, drive the transitions between El Niño and La Niña phases.

ENSO: Monitoring, Variations, and Related Phenomena

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

Answer: True

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and how is it calculated?: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the strength of the Southern Oscillation, the atmospheric component of ENSO. It is calculated by measuring the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti in the Pacific Ocean and Darwin, Australia, which is located on the Indian Ocean.
  • How does the Southern Oscillation relate to El Niño and La Niña phases?: The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric part of ENSO, specifically an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. El Niño episodes are associated with lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific, resulting in a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Conversely, La Niña episodes feature higher pressure in the east and lower pressure in the west, corresponding to a positive SOI.

ENSO Modoki, or Central Pacific ENSO, features temperature anomalies centered along the South American coastline.

Answer: False

ENSO Modoki features temperature anomalies centered in the central Pacific, not along the South American coastline.

Related Concepts:

  • What is ENSO Modoki, and how does it differ from the canonical El Niño?: ENSO Modoki, also known as Central Pacific (CP) ENSO or 'dateline' ENSO, is a variation where temperature anomalies are centered in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) rather than the eastern Pacific (Niño 1 and 2 regions). Its effects on global weather patterns, such as hurricane activity and rainfall distribution, can differ from those of the traditional Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO.
  • What is meant by 'ENSO flavors' or variations like ENSO Modoki and ENSO Costero?: 'ENSO flavors' refer to different spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies within the ENSO cycle. ENSO Modoki (Central Pacific ENSO) has anomalies centered in the mid-Pacific, differing from the canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, which has anomalies near the South American coast. ENSO Costero specifically refers to anomalies concentrated along the South American coast.
  • What is ENSO Costero, and where are its primary impacts felt?: ENSO Costero, or Eastern Pacific ENSO, is a phenomenon where sea surface temperature anomalies are concentrated along the South American coastline, particularly off Peru and Ecuador. Its effects are more localized, often leading to increased rainfall and flooding in coastal Ecuador and northern Peru during warm phases, and droughts along the Peruvian coast during cold phases.

ENSO Costero, also known as Eastern Pacific ENSO, is characterized by temperature anomalies concentrated in the central Pacific Ocean.

Answer: False

ENSO Costero, or Eastern Pacific ENSO, is characterized by temperature anomalies concentrated along the South American coastline, not in the central Pacific.

Related Concepts:

  • What is ENSO Costero, and where are its primary impacts felt?: ENSO Costero, or Eastern Pacific ENSO, is a phenomenon where sea surface temperature anomalies are concentrated along the South American coastline, particularly off Peru and Ecuador. Its effects are more localized, often leading to increased rainfall and flooding in coastal Ecuador and northern Peru during warm phases, and droughts along the Peruvian coast during cold phases.
  • What is meant by 'ENSO flavors' or variations like ENSO Modoki and ENSO Costero?: 'ENSO flavors' refer to different spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies within the ENSO cycle. ENSO Modoki (Central Pacific ENSO) has anomalies centered in the mid-Pacific, differing from the canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, which has anomalies near the South American coast. ENSO Costero specifically refers to anomalies concentrated along the South American coast.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

The US Climate Prediction Center requires sea surface temperatures to be 0.5°C below average for several seasons to declare an El Niño event.

Answer: False

The US Climate Prediction Center requires sea surface temperatures to be 0.5°C above average for several seasons to declare an El Niño event.

Related Concepts:

  • How do different countries monitor and declare ENSO conditions?: Various countries and meteorological agencies use different thresholds and criteria to declare ENSO events. For example, the US Climate Prediction Center monitors the Niño 3.4 region, requiring forecasts of sea surface temperatures to be 0.5°C above average for several seasons. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology considers trade winds, SOI, and sea surface temperatures, while the Japan Meteorological Agency requires a five-month average SST deviation of over 0.5°C in the Niño 3 region for six consecutive months.
  • What is the significance of the 'Niño regions' in ENSO monitoring?: The Niño regions are specific areas in the tropical Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperatures are monitored to determine the current ENSO phase. Key regions include Niño 1+2 (easternmost Pacific), Niño 3 (eastern-central Pacific), and Niño 3.4 (central Pacific), which is often used by the US Climate Prediction Center for ENSO declarations.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a climate pattern primarily affecting the North Atlantic and is unrelated to ENSO.

Answer: False

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) primarily affects the tropics and is related to ENSO, not unrelated and confined to the North Atlantic.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and how does it relate to ENSO?: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major pattern of variability in the tropical atmosphere, characterized by a coupling of atmospheric circulation and deep convection that travels eastward. Its interannual variability is partly linked to ENSO; strong MJO activity is often observed preceding El Niño onset, is typically absent during some El Niño maxima, and is generally greater during La Niña episodes.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) operates on shorter, more frequent cycles than ENSO and primarily influences tropical regions.

Answer: False

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) operates on longer, interdecadal timescales and influences mid-latitude regions, unlike ENSO's tropical focus and shorter cycles.

Related Concepts:

  • How does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) differ from ENSO?: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a climate pattern centered over the mid-latitude Pacific, characterized by alternating phases of warm and cool surface waters north of 20°N. Unlike ENSO, which primarily affects the tropics and subtropics with shorter, more frequent cycles, the PDO operates on longer, irregular interannual-to-interdecadal timescales (decades) and influences mid-latitude temperatures and precipitation patterns.

How is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) typically calculated?

Answer: By calculating the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is typically calculated by measuring the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and how is it calculated?: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the strength of the Southern Oscillation, the atmospheric component of ENSO. It is calculated by measuring the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti in the Pacific Ocean and Darwin, Australia, which is located on the Indian Ocean.
  • How does the Southern Oscillation relate to El Niño and La Niña phases?: The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric part of ENSO, specifically an oscillation in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. El Niño episodes are associated with lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific, resulting in a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Conversely, La Niña episodes feature higher pressure in the east and lower pressure in the west, corresponding to a positive SOI.

ENSO Modoki, or Central Pacific ENSO, differs from the canonical Eastern Pacific ENSO primarily in:

Answer: The geographical center of the sea surface temperature anomalies.

ENSO Modoki differs from canonical Eastern Pacific ENSO primarily in the geographical center of the sea surface temperature anomalies, which are located in the central Pacific rather than the eastern Pacific.

Related Concepts:

  • What is ENSO Modoki, and how does it differ from the canonical El Niño?: ENSO Modoki, also known as Central Pacific (CP) ENSO or 'dateline' ENSO, is a variation where temperature anomalies are centered in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) rather than the eastern Pacific (Niño 1 and 2 regions). Its effects on global weather patterns, such as hurricane activity and rainfall distribution, can differ from those of the traditional Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO.

Which country's meteorological agency monitors the Niño 3.4 region, requiring SST anomalies of 0.5°C above average for several seasons to declare ENSO conditions?

Answer: US Climate Prediction Center

The US Climate Prediction Center monitors the Niño 3.4 region and requires sea surface temperature anomalies of 0.5°C above average for several seasons to declare ENSO conditions.

Related Concepts:

  • How do different countries monitor and declare ENSO conditions?: Various countries and meteorological agencies use different thresholds and criteria to declare ENSO events. For example, the US Climate Prediction Center monitors the Niño 3.4 region, requiring forecasts of sea surface temperatures to be 0.5°C above average for several seasons. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology considers trade winds, SOI, and sea surface temperatures, while the Japan Meteorological Agency requires a five-month average SST deviation of over 0.5°C in the Niño 3 region for six consecutive months.
  • What is the significance of the 'Niño regions' in ENSO monitoring?: The Niño regions are specific areas in the tropical Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperatures are monitored to determine the current ENSO phase. Key regions include Niño 1+2 (easternmost Pacific), Niño 3 (eastern-central Pacific), and Niño 3.4 (central Pacific), which is often used by the US Climate Prediction Center for ENSO declarations.

How does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) differ from ENSO in terms of timescale?

Answer: PDO operates on longer, irregular interannual-to-interdecadal timescales (decades).

The PDO operates on longer, irregular interannual-to-interdecadal timescales (decades), differing from ENSO's shorter, more frequent cycles.

Related Concepts:

  • How does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) differ from ENSO?: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a climate pattern centered over the mid-latitude Pacific, characterized by alternating phases of warm and cool surface waters north of 20°N. Unlike ENSO, which primarily affects the tropics and subtropics with shorter, more frequent cycles, the PDO operates on longer, irregular interannual-to-interdecadal timescales (decades) and influences mid-latitude temperatures and precipitation patterns.

Which of the following is a characteristic of ENSO Modoki compared to canonical Eastern Pacific ENSO?

Answer: Anomalies are centered in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region).

A characteristic of ENSO Modoki compared to canonical Eastern Pacific ENSO is that its anomalies are centered in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region).

Related Concepts:

  • What is ENSO Modoki, and how does it differ from the canonical El Niño?: ENSO Modoki, also known as Central Pacific (CP) ENSO or 'dateline' ENSO, is a variation where temperature anomalies are centered in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) rather than the eastern Pacific (Niño 1 and 2 regions). Its effects on global weather patterns, such as hurricane activity and rainfall distribution, can differ from those of the traditional Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO.
  • What is meant by 'ENSO flavors' or variations like ENSO Modoki and ENSO Costero?: 'ENSO flavors' refer to different spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies within the ENSO cycle. ENSO Modoki (Central Pacific ENSO) has anomalies centered in the mid-Pacific, differing from the canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, which has anomalies near the South American coast. ENSO Costero specifically refers to anomalies concentrated along the South American coast.

What is the significance of the 'Niño regions' in ENSO monitoring?

Answer: They are specific regions in the tropical Pacific used to monitor sea surface temperatures for ENSO phase determination.

The significance of the 'Niño regions' in ENSO monitoring is that they are specific areas in the tropical Pacific used to monitor sea surface temperatures for ENSO phase determination.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the significance of the 'Niño regions' in ENSO monitoring?: The Niño regions are specific areas in the tropical Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperatures are monitored to determine the current ENSO phase. Key regions include Niño 1+2 (easternmost Pacific), Niño 3 (eastern-central Pacific), and Niño 3.4 (central Pacific), which is often used by the US Climate Prediction Center for ENSO declarations.
  • How do different countries monitor and declare ENSO conditions?: Various countries and meteorological agencies use different thresholds and criteria to declare ENSO events. For example, the US Climate Prediction Center monitors the Niño 3.4 region, requiring forecasts of sea surface temperatures to be 0.5°C above average for several seasons. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology considers trade winds, SOI, and sea surface temperatures, while the Japan Meteorological Agency requires a five-month average SST deviation of over 0.5°C in the Niño 3 region for six consecutive months.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).

ENSO: Global and Regional Impacts

El Niño events tend to cause short-term cooling of the global average surface temperature.

Answer: False

El Niño events tend to cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, not cooling.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence global average surface temperatures?: El Niño events typically cause short-term spikes in the global average surface temperature, usually lasting about a year. Conversely, La Niña events tend to cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency and intensity of El Niño compared to La Niña events can influence global temperature trends over timescales of around ten years.
  • How does ENSO influence global climate variability?: ENSO is a significant driver of internal climate variability, influencing weather patterns across much of the globe through teleconnections. El Niño events tend to cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency of these events can affect global temperature trends over decadal timescales.
  • How does ENSO influence the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean?: During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly due to reduced upwelling and the eastward movement of warm water. Conversely, during La Niña, these same regions experience cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures due to enhanced upwelling and the westward transport of warm water.

El Niño years generally lead to more active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean due to reduced vertical wind shear.

Answer: False

El Niño years generally lead to less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean due to increased vertical wind shear.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean?: El Niño events typically increase vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. This increased wind shear disrupts the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, generally leading to less active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to neutral or La Niña years.
  • How does ENSO influence the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin?: El Niño events contribute to decreased easterly vertical wind shear in the Eastern Pacific basin. This reduction in wind shear favors conditions that are conducive to above-normal tropical cyclone activity, meaning more frequent and potentially more intense hurricanes can form in this region during El Niño years.
  • What is the impact of El Niño on tropical cyclone activity in different ocean basins?: El Niño years generally lead to less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean due to increased vertical wind shear and a drier atmosphere, which inhibit cyclone formation and intensification. Conversely, El Niño favors above-normal hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific basin. In the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone formation tends to shift eastward during El Niño events.

Persistent El Niño conditions can severely impact local fishing industries by reducing nutrient-rich upwelling and fish populations.

Answer: True

Persistent El Niño conditions reduce nutrient-rich upwelling, negatively impacting fish populations and fishing industries.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO affect the fishing industry, particularly in developing countries?: When El Niño conditions persist, the resulting ocean warming and reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters can severely impact local fishing industries, especially in developing countries dependent on marine resources. This reduction in fish populations, such as anchovies off the coast of Peru, can lead to serious economic consequences and fishery collapses.
  • How does ENSO impact the distribution of fish populations off the coast of South America?: During El Niño events, the reduction in upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the west coast of South America significantly impacts fish populations. This leads to fish kills, particularly of species like anchoveta, which are crucial for the local fishing industry and the broader marine ecosystem, affecting everything from sardines to scallops.
  • What are the specific impacts of El Niño on the Galápagos Islands' ecosystem?: During El Niño events, the weakening of trade winds around the Galápagos Islands leads to warmer sea surface temperatures and a decrease in nutrient-rich upwelling. This disrupts the marine food web, causing a trophic cascade that impacts populations of primary producers, fish, and top predators like sharks, penguins, and seals, sometimes leading to starvation and population declines.

ENSO cycles have been linked to a decreased incidence of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever.

Answer: False

ENSO cycles are linked to an increased incidence of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever due to altered rainfall and temperature patterns.

Related Concepts:

  • What are some of the health and social impacts associated with ENSO cycles?: ENSO cycles are correlated with changes in the incidence of certain epidemic diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes like malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever. Some studies also suggest a link between ENSO events, especially El Niño years, and an increased risk of civil conflicts in affected countries.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.

Strong El Niño phases can lead to prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, potentially causing widespread fires and changes in species composition.

Answer: True

Strong El Niño phases can lead to prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, increasing the risk of fires and altering species composition.

Related Concepts:

  • How do ENSO events influence ecological systems, such as tropical forests and coral reefs?: ENSO events, particularly strong El Niño phases, can lead to prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, resulting in widespread fires and significant changes in forest structure and species composition. These events also contribute to large-scale coral bleaching events due to ocean warming, causing substantial losses of live coral globally.
  • How does ENSO influence rainfall patterns in the Amazon River Basin?: During El Niño events, drier and hotter weather conditions can occur in parts of the Amazon River Basin, potentially increasing the risk of forest fires. Conversely, La Niña events may bring wetter conditions to some areas of the Amazon.

El Niño events are generally associated with above-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia and northern Australia.

Answer: False

El Niño events are generally associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia and northern Australia.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the general rainfall patterns associated with El Niño across different continents?: Generally, El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia, northern South America, and parts of Africa and Australia. Conversely, they tend to bring above-average rainfall to southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.
  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.
  • How do ENSO events influence the monsoon systems in Asia and Australia?: El Niño events often lead to drought in areas like India and northwestern Australia by shifting the warm water pool and associated rainfall eastward, away from the western Pacific. Conversely, La Niña events can bring increased rainfall to parts of Asia and eastern Australia due to stronger trade winds and a westward shift of the warm pool.

La Niña typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to equatorial East Africa, while El Niño causes drier conditions there.

Answer: False

While La Niña brings wetter conditions to southern Africa, El Niño causes drier conditions in equatorial East Africa, contrary to the statement.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence weather patterns in Africa?: La Niña typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to southern Africa from December to February, while causing drier conditions over equatorial East Africa during the same period. El Niño's effects on rainfall in southern Africa differ between winter and summer rainfall areas, with winter rainfall areas often experiencing higher rainfall and summer rainfall areas facing increased drought risk, especially during strong El Niño events.
  • What are the general rainfall patterns associated with El Niño across different continents?: Generally, El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia, northern South America, and parts of Africa and Australia. Conversely, they tend to bring above-average rainfall to southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.
  • How does ENSO influence weather patterns in North America?: La Niña typically brings above-average precipitation to the northern Midwest, northern Rockies, Northern California, and parts of the Pacific Northwest, while causing below-average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states. El Niño generally leads to milder winters in Canada and wetter conditions along the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, with drier conditions in Hawaii, the Ohio Valley, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountains.

During El Niño conditions, Antarctica tends to experience reduced sea ice in the Weddell Sea due to high-pressure anomalies.

Answer: False

During El Niño conditions, Antarctica tends to experience reduced sea ice in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, not the Weddell Sea.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the observed impacts of ENSO on Antarctica?: During El Niño conditions, Antarctica experiences high-pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, leading to reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat flux in those sectors and the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice. La Niña events typically produce the opposite anomalies.
  • How does ENSO affect the sea ice extent around Antarctica?: During El Niño events, there is a tendency for reduced sea ice in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas around Antarctica due to high-pressure anomalies and increased poleward heat flux. Conversely, the Weddell Sea tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. La Niña events generally produce the opposite effects.
  • What is the 'Antarctic dipole mode' in relation to ENSO?: The Antarctic dipole mode describes the pattern of sea ice and atmospheric pressure anomalies around Antarctica that are influenced by ENSO. El Niño typically leads to high-pressure anomalies in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced sea ice, while La Niña produces the opposite effect.

In Western Asia, La Niña phases are generally associated with increased precipitation during the November-April rainy season.

Answer: False

In Western Asia, El Niño phases are generally associated with increased precipitation, while La Niña phases bring reduced precipitation.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO affect weather patterns in Asia?: In Western Asia, El Niño phases are generally associated with increased precipitation during the November-April rainy season, while La Niña phases bring reduced precipitation. During El Niño years, the warm water pool shifts eastward, causing drought in the western Pacific, including areas like Singapore, which experienced its driest February on record in 2010.
  • What are the key characteristics of a La Niña phase?: A La Niña phase is characterized by a stronger Walker circulation, leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is accompanied by higher atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower pressure in the western Pacific. La Niña events typically result in increased strength of the Pacific trade winds and opposite rainfall effects in regions like Australia compared to El Niño.

La Niña events in Australia are strongly correlated with reduced rainfall across the continent and warmer temperatures in the south.

Answer: False

La Niña events in Australia are strongly correlated with increased rainfall across the continent, not reduced rainfall.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the primary impacts of ENSO on Australia's climate?: ENSO is a major driver of climate variability across most of Australia. El Niño events are strongly correlated with reduced rainfall across the continent, warmer temperatures in the south, and a delayed monsoon onset in the tropical north. La Niña events, conversely, are linked to increased rainfall, particularly along the eastern seaboard, often leading to major floods.
  • What are the key characteristics of a La Niña phase?: A La Niña phase is characterized by a stronger Walker circulation, leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is accompanied by higher atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower pressure in the western Pacific. La Niña events typically result in increased strength of the Pacific trade winds and opposite rainfall effects in regions like Australia compared to El Niño.
  • How do ENSO events influence the monsoon systems in Asia and Australia?: El Niño events often lead to drought in areas like India and northwestern Australia by shifting the warm water pool and associated rainfall eastward, away from the western Pacific. Conversely, La Niña events can bring increased rainfall to parts of Asia and eastern Australia due to stronger trade winds and a westward shift of the warm pool.

El Niño generally leads to milder winters in Canada and wetter conditions along the US Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Answer: True

El Niño generally leads to milder winters in Canada and wetter conditions along the US Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence weather patterns in North America?: La Niña typically brings above-average precipitation to the northern Midwest, northern Rockies, Northern California, and parts of the Pacific Northwest, while causing below-average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states. El Niño generally leads to milder winters in Canada and wetter conditions along the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, with drier conditions in Hawaii, the Ohio Valley, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountains.
  • What are the general rainfall patterns associated with El Niño across different continents?: Generally, El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia, northern South America, and parts of Africa and Australia. Conversely, they tend to bring above-average rainfall to southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.
  • What is the impact of El Niño on tropical cyclone activity in different ocean basins?: El Niño years generally lead to less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean due to increased vertical wind shear and a drier atmosphere, which inhibit cyclone formation and intensification. Conversely, El Niño favors above-normal hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific basin. In the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone formation tends to shift eastward during El Niño events.

The Tehuantepecer wind magnitude is typically greater during La Niña years compared to El Niño years.

Answer: False

The Tehuantepecer wind magnitude is typically greater during El Niño years compared to La Niña years.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the Tehuantepecer wind, and how is it related to ENSO?: The Tehuantepecer is a strong mountain-gap wind that occurs in Mexico and Guatemala, primarily between October and February. Wind magnitude is greater during El Niño years compared to La Niña years, likely due to more frequent cold frontal incursions associated with El Niño winters, which can enhance thunderstorm activity when interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
  • How does ENSO influence the strength and frequency of the Tehuantepecer wind?: The Tehuantepecer wind, a strong gap wind in Mexico, is influenced by ENSO. Wind magnitude tends to be greater during El Niño years due to more frequent cold frontal incursions, which are associated with El Niño winters. These winds can accelerate through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, potentially enhancing thunderstorm activity when they interact with the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

During El Niño events, Fiji generally experiences wetter-than-normal conditions, increasing the risk of drought.

Answer: False

During El Niño events, Fiji generally experiences drier-than-normal conditions, increasing the risk of drought.

Related Concepts:

  • How do ENSO events affect Pacific islands like Fiji and Samoa?: During El Niño events, Fiji generally experiences drier-than-normal conditions, increasing the risk of drought, with impacts often felt about a year after the event begins. In the Samoan Islands, El Niño can lead to below-average rainfall and higher temperatures, potentially causing droughts and forest fires, along with an increased risk of tropical cyclones affecting the islands.

El Niño events disrupt the marine food web around the Galápagos Islands by reducing nutrient-rich upwelling, impacting populations of primary producers and top predators.

Answer: True

El Niño events disrupt the marine food web around the Galápagos Islands by reducing nutrient-rich upwelling, impacting populations of primary producers and top predators.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the specific impacts of El Niño on the Galápagos Islands' ecosystem?: During El Niño events, the weakening of trade winds around the Galápagos Islands leads to warmer sea surface temperatures and a decrease in nutrient-rich upwelling. This disrupts the marine food web, causing a trophic cascade that impacts populations of primary producers, fish, and top predators like sharks, penguins, and seals, sometimes leading to starvation and population declines.
  • How does ENSO affect the climate of the Galápagos Islands?: ENSO events significantly impact the Galápagos Islands' climate. During El Niño, weakened trade winds lead to warmer sea surface temperatures and reduced upwelling of nutrients, affecting marine life. This can cause droughts and higher temperatures on land, impacting terrestrial species as well.
  • How does ENSO impact the distribution of fish populations off the coast of South America?: During El Niño events, the reduction in upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the west coast of South America significantly impacts fish populations. This leads to fish kills, particularly of species like anchoveta, which are crucial for the local fishing industry and the broader marine ecosystem, affecting everything from sardines to scallops.

How does El Niño typically affect tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean?

Answer: It decreases activity due to increased vertical wind shear and a drier atmosphere.

El Niño typically decreases tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean due to increased vertical wind shear and a drier atmosphere.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean?: El Niño events typically increase vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. This increased wind shear disrupts the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, generally leading to less active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to neutral or La Niña years.
  • What is the impact of El Niño on tropical cyclone activity in different ocean basins?: El Niño years generally lead to less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean due to increased vertical wind shear and a drier atmosphere, which inhibit cyclone formation and intensification. Conversely, El Niño favors above-normal hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific basin. In the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone formation tends to shift eastward during El Niño events.
  • How does ENSO influence the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin?: El Niño events contribute to decreased easterly vertical wind shear in the Eastern Pacific basin. This reduction in wind shear favors conditions that are conducive to above-normal tropical cyclone activity, meaning more frequent and potentially more intense hurricanes can form in this region during El Niño years.

What is a significant ecological impact of strong El Niño phases mentioned in the source?

Answer: Prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, leading to fires.

A significant ecological impact of strong El Niño phases is prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, which can lead to widespread fires.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the specific impacts of El Niño on the Galápagos Islands' ecosystem?: During El Niño events, the weakening of trade winds around the Galápagos Islands leads to warmer sea surface temperatures and a decrease in nutrient-rich upwelling. This disrupts the marine food web, causing a trophic cascade that impacts populations of primary producers, fish, and top predators like sharks, penguins, and seals, sometimes leading to starvation and population declines.
  • How does ENSO affect the fishing industry, particularly in developing countries?: When El Niño conditions persist, the resulting ocean warming and reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters can severely impact local fishing industries, especially in developing countries dependent on marine resources. This reduction in fish populations, such as anchovies off the coast of Peru, can lead to serious economic consequences and fishery collapses.
  • How do ENSO events influence ecological systems, such as tropical forests and coral reefs?: ENSO events, particularly strong El Niño phases, can lead to prolonged dry periods in tropical forests, resulting in widespread fires and significant changes in forest structure and species composition. These events also contribute to large-scale coral bleaching events due to ocean warming, causing substantial losses of live coral globally.

Which region typically experiences below-average rainfall during El Niño events, according to general patterns?

Answer: Indonesia

Indonesia typically experiences below-average rainfall during El Niño events.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the general rainfall patterns associated with El Niño across different continents?: Generally, El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia, northern South America, and parts of Africa and Australia. Conversely, they tend to bring above-average rainfall to southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.
  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.
  • How does ENSO influence weather patterns in North America?: La Niña typically brings above-average precipitation to the northern Midwest, northern Rockies, Northern California, and parts of the Pacific Northwest, while causing below-average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states. El Niño generally leads to milder winters in Canada and wetter conditions along the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, with drier conditions in Hawaii, the Ohio Valley, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountains.

How does La Niña typically influence weather patterns in southern Africa?

Answer: It brings wetter-than-normal conditions.

La Niña typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to southern Africa.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence weather patterns in Africa?: La Niña typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to southern Africa from December to February, while causing drier conditions over equatorial East Africa during the same period. El Niño's effects on rainfall in southern Africa differ between winter and summer rainfall areas, with winter rainfall areas often experiencing higher rainfall and summer rainfall areas facing increased drought risk, especially during strong El Niño events.
  • What are the key characteristics of a La Niña phase?: A La Niña phase is characterized by a stronger Walker circulation, leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is accompanied by higher atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower pressure in the western Pacific. La Niña events typically result in increased strength of the Pacific trade winds and opposite rainfall effects in regions like Australia compared to El Niño.

During El Niño conditions, what happens to sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas around Antarctica?

Answer: It decreases due to high-pressure anomalies and increased heat flux.

During El Niño conditions, sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas around Antarctica decreases due to high-pressure anomalies and increased heat flux.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO affect the sea ice extent around Antarctica?: During El Niño events, there is a tendency for reduced sea ice in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas around Antarctica due to high-pressure anomalies and increased poleward heat flux. Conversely, the Weddell Sea tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. La Niña events generally produce the opposite effects.
  • What are the observed impacts of ENSO on Antarctica?: During El Niño conditions, Antarctica experiences high-pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, leading to reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat flux in those sectors and the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice. La Niña events typically produce the opposite anomalies.
  • What is the 'Antarctic dipole mode' in relation to ENSO?: The Antarctic dipole mode describes the pattern of sea ice and atmospheric pressure anomalies around Antarctica that are influenced by ENSO. El Niño typically leads to high-pressure anomalies in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced sea ice, while La Niña produces the opposite effect.

Which of the following is a potential social impact linked to ENSO cycles?

Answer: Increased risk of civil conflicts in affected countries.

Increased risk of civil conflicts in affected countries is a potential social impact linked to ENSO cycles.

Related Concepts:

  • What are some of the health and social impacts associated with ENSO cycles?: ENSO cycles are correlated with changes in the incidence of certain epidemic diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes like malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever. Some studies also suggest a link between ENSO events, especially El Niño years, and an increased risk of civil conflicts in affected countries.
  • How might ENSO have influenced historical human civilizations and events?: ENSO events may have played a role in the decline of ancient civilizations, such as the Moche culture in Peru. Furthermore, a strong El Niño event between 1789 and 1793 is suggested to have contributed to poor crop yields in Europe, potentially influencing the French Revolution, and the extreme weather from the 1876-77 El Niño caused devastating famines, particularly in northern China.
  • How does ENSO influence global climate variability?: ENSO is a significant driver of internal climate variability, influencing weather patterns across much of the globe through teleconnections. El Niño events tend to cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency of these events can affect global temperature trends over decadal timescales.

What is the primary impact of El Niño on the fishing industry, particularly off the coast of South America?

Answer: Reduced fish populations due to decreased nutrient upwelling.

The primary impact of El Niño on the fishing industry off South America is reduced fish populations due to decreased nutrient upwelling.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO impact the distribution of fish populations off the coast of South America?: During El Niño events, the reduction in upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the west coast of South America significantly impacts fish populations. This leads to fish kills, particularly of species like anchoveta, which are crucial for the local fishing industry and the broader marine ecosystem, affecting everything from sardines to scallops.
  • How does ENSO affect the fishing industry, particularly in developing countries?: When El Niño conditions persist, the resulting ocean warming and reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters can severely impact local fishing industries, especially in developing countries dependent on marine resources. This reduction in fish populations, such as anchovies off the coast of Peru, can lead to serious economic consequences and fishery collapses.
  • What are the specific impacts of El Niño on the Galápagos Islands' ecosystem?: During El Niño events, the weakening of trade winds around the Galápagos Islands leads to warmer sea surface temperatures and a decrease in nutrient-rich upwelling. This disrupts the marine food web, causing a trophic cascade that impacts populations of primary producers, fish, and top predators like sharks, penguins, and seals, sometimes leading to starvation and population declines.

How does ENSO influence global average surface temperatures?

Answer: El Niño events cause short-term spikes in global temperature, while La Niña causes short-term cooling.

ENSO influences global average surface temperatures by causing short-term spikes during El Niño events and short-term cooling during La Niña events.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence global climate variability?: ENSO is a significant driver of internal climate variability, influencing weather patterns across much of the globe through teleconnections. El Niño events tend to cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short-term cooling. The relative frequency of these events can affect global temperature trends over decadal timescales.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and what are its primary components?: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon characterized by variations in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It comprises two main components: El Niño, the warming phase of sea surface temperatures, and La Niña, the cooling phase. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which involves an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters.

What is the primary impact of El Niño on rainfall in Australia?

Answer: Reduced rainfall across most of the continent.

The primary impact of El Niño on rainfall in Australia is reduced rainfall across most of the continent.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the primary impacts of ENSO on Australia's climate?: ENSO is a major driver of climate variability across most of Australia. El Niño events are strongly correlated with reduced rainfall across the continent, warmer temperatures in the south, and a delayed monsoon onset in the tropical north. La Niña events, conversely, are linked to increased rainfall, particularly along the eastern seaboard, often leading to major floods.
  • What are the general rainfall patterns associated with El Niño across different continents?: Generally, El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall in regions like Indonesia, northern South America, and parts of Africa and Australia. Conversely, they tend to bring above-average rainfall to southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.
  • What defines an El Niño phase in terms of ocean and atmospheric conditions?: An El Niño phase is established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, and the Hadley circulation strengthens. This leads to a band of warm ocean water developing in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the coast of South America, due to reduced or absent upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This warming shifts atmospheric pressure, causing lower pressure in the east and higher pressure in the west, leading to reduced rainfall over areas like Indonesia and northern Australia.

How does ENSO influence the sea surface height (SSH) in the equatorial Pacific?

Answer: El Niño causes a positive SSH anomaly due to thermal expansion of warmer waters.

El Niño influences the sea surface height (SSH) in the equatorial Pacific by causing a positive SSH anomaly due to the thermal expansion of warmer waters.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO affect sea surface height anomalies?: Sea surface height (SSH) changes in the equatorial Pacific region with ENSO. El Niño causes a positive SSH anomaly (raised sea level) due to thermal expansion of warmer waters, while La Niña causes a negative SSH anomaly (lowered sea level) due to contraction from cooler waters.

How does ENSO influence tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific basin?

Answer: It shifts the location where tropical cyclones form eastward.

ENSO influences tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific basin by shifting the location where tropical cyclones form eastward.

Related Concepts:

  • How do ENSO events affect the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific basin?: During El Niño events, the location where tropical cyclones form in the Western Pacific basin tends to shift eastward. This change means that areas like Micronesia are more likely to be affected by tropical cyclones, while China becomes less likely to experience them. The overall number of cyclones may not change significantly, but their geographical distribution does.

How does ENSO influence rainfall patterns in India?

Answer: El Niño events are often associated with a weakening of the Indian monsoon and increased drought risk.

ENSO influences rainfall patterns in India, with El Niño events often associated with a weakening of the Indian monsoon and increased drought risk.

Related Concepts:

  • How does ENSO influence the monsoon systems in India?: El Niño events are often associated with a weakening of the Indian monsoon, leading to reduced rainfall and increased drought risk in India. Conversely, La Niña events can sometimes be linked to stronger monsoons and increased rainfall, although other factors also influence monsoon behavior.

ENSO: Historical Context and Future Projections

There is no evidence suggesting that ENSO events have occurred throughout Earth's history prior to the 20th century.

Answer: False

There is evidence suggesting that ENSO events have occurred throughout Earth's history prior to the 20th century.

Related Concepts:

  • Is there evidence of ENSO events occurring in geological timescales?: Yes, there is strong evidence for El Niño events occurring during the early Holocene epoch, approximately 10,000 years ago. Paleoclimatic archives, including chemical signatures in coral specimens dating back around 13,000 years, indicate the presence of ENSO-like events throughout Earth's history, with varying modes and impacts depending on the geological and atmospheric conditions of the time.
  • What are the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?: ENSO fluctuates between three distinct phases: the neutral phase, the El Niño phase (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and the La Niña phase (characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region).
  • How might ENSO have influenced historical human civilizations and events?: ENSO events may have played a role in the decline of ancient civilizations, such as the Moche culture in Peru. Furthermore, a strong El Niño event between 1789 and 1793 is suggested to have contributed to poor crop yields in Europe, potentially influencing the French Revolution, and the extreme weather from the 1876-77 El Niño caused devastating famines, particularly in northern China.

Climate change is projected by the IPCC AR6 to decrease precipitation variance related to ENSO.

Answer: False

Climate change is projected by the IPCC AR6 to increase, not decrease, precipitation variance related to ENSO.

Related Concepts:

  • What are the potential long-term projections for ENSO under climate change?: Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, as different climate models yield varying predictions. However, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report indicates it is very likely that precipitation variance related to ENSO will increase, and rainfall variability associated with ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant regional changes. It is also considered virtually certain that ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in a warmer world.
  • What is the scientific consensus regarding the impact of climate change on ENSO?: The impact of climate change on ENSO is uncertain, with different climate models making varying predictions. While there's no definitive sign of changes in the physical phenomenon itself, climate change may exacerbate ENSO's effects, such as increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects an increase in precipitation variance related to ENSO and significant regional changes due to altered teleconnections.
  • How does ENSO influence the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change?: Recent scholarship suggests that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. While the exact influence of climate change on ENSO's strength or duration is still debated, the consequences of ENSO, such as temperature anomalies and weather extremes, are observed to be increasing and associated with broader climate change impacts.

What historical event might have been influenced by the strong El Niño event between 1789 and 1793 due to poor crop yields in Europe?

Answer: The French Revolution

The strong El Niño event between 1789 and 1793, which caused poor crop yields in Europe, might have influenced the French Revolution.

Related Concepts:

  • How might ENSO have influenced historical human civilizations and events?: ENSO events may have played a role in the decline of ancient civilizations, such as the Moche culture in Peru. Furthermore, a strong El Niño event between 1789 and 1793 is suggested to have contributed to poor crop yields in Europe, potentially influencing the French Revolution, and the extreme weather from the 1876-77 El Niño caused devastating famines, particularly in northern China.

The term 'El Niño,' meaning 'The Boy' in Spanish, was associated with the Christ Child due to:

Answer: Its timing around Christmas time when noticed by sailors.

The term 'El Niño' was associated with the Christ Child due to its timing around Christmas time when it was first noticed by sailors.

Related Concepts:

  • How did the term 'El Niño' originate?: The term 'El Niño,' meaning 'The Boy' in Spanish, was first applied to a climate phenomenon by Peruvian sailors who noticed a warm, south-flowing ocean current that was most noticeable around Christmas time. The name later became associated with the Christ Child because of this timing.

Which statement accurately reflects the potential impact of climate change on ENSO, according to the source?

Answer: Climate change may exacerbate ENSO's effects, potentially increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events.

Climate change may exacerbate ENSO's effects, potentially increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, according to the source.

Related Concepts:

  • What is the scientific consensus regarding the impact of climate change on ENSO?: The impact of climate change on ENSO is uncertain, with different climate models making varying predictions. While there's no definitive sign of changes in the physical phenomenon itself, climate change may exacerbate ENSO's effects, such as increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects an increase in precipitation variance related to ENSO and significant regional changes due to altered teleconnections.
  • How does ENSO influence the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change?: Recent scholarship suggests that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. While the exact influence of climate change on ENSO's strength or duration is still debated, the consequences of ENSO, such as temperature anomalies and weather extremes, are observed to be increasing and associated with broader climate change impacts.
  • What are the potential long-term projections for ENSO under climate change?: Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, as different climate models yield varying predictions. However, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report indicates it is very likely that precipitation variance related to ENSO will increase, and rainfall variability associated with ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant regional changes. It is also considered virtually certain that ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in a warmer world.

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