This is an academic visualization based on the Wikipedia article on the 2014 United States Senate election in Illinois. Read the full source article here. (opens in new tab)

Illinois Senate Showdown: The 2014 Electoral Landscape

An Academic Examination of the 2014 United States Senate Election in Illinois, detailing candidates, results, polling, and analysis.

Election Overview 🏛️ Key Analysis 🔍

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Election Overview

Election Context

The 2014 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 4, 2014. This pivotal election determined representation in the U.S. Senate for the State of Illinois. It occurred concurrently with other significant electoral events, including the gubernatorial election in Illinois and nationwide Senate and House of Representatives contests.

Key Contenders

The incumbent, Dick Durbin, a distinguished member of the Democratic Party and serving as Senate Majority Whip, sought his fourth term. Facing him was the Republican nominee, state senator Jim Oberweis, a candidate with prior experience in statewide races. The Libertarian Party nominated Sharon Hansen.

Electoral Outcome

Senator Dick Durbin secured re-election, defeating Jim Oberweis and Sharon Hansen. Durbin garnered 53.55% of the popular vote. Notably, this election represented the smallest vote total of Durbin's senatorial career, despite his victory.

Voter Turnout

The primary election saw a turnout of 15.77%, with 1,183,429 votes cast. For the general election, voter participation was recorded at 48.16%, with a total of 3,603,519 votes cast across all candidates.

Historical Context

Senator Durbin's Tenure

Dick Durbin's initial election to the U.S. Senate occurred in 1996. His subsequent re-elections in 2002 and 2008 were marked by progressively larger victory margins. By 2014, he had established himself as a prominent figure in the Senate, holding the position of Senate Majority Whip since 2007, underscoring his influence within the chamber.

Electoral Environment

The 2014 election cycle in Illinois was characterized by a broad spectrum of contests. Beyond the senatorial race, voters also decided on the governorship, all Illinois seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and numerous state and local positions. This created a dynamic political environment influencing voter engagement and campaign strategies.

Primary Elections

Democratic Primary

The Democratic primary featured incumbent Senator Dick Durbin, who faced no opposition. He secured his party's nomination uncontested, advancing directly to the general election.

Republican Primary

The Republican primary was more competitive, with state senator Jim Oberweis emerging as the nominee. He faced businessman Doug Truax. Oberweis secured victory with 56.08% of the vote against Truax's 43.91%. Other declared candidates, Armen Alvarez and William Lee, were removed from the ballot, while Chad Koppie and Joe Walsh declined to run.

Republican Primary Results:

Republican Primary Results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Oberweis 423,097 56.08%
Republican Doug Truax 331,237 43.91%
Republican Write-in 54 <0.01%
Total votes 754,388 100.00%

Third-Party and Independent Candidates

General Election Participants

In addition to the major party candidates, the general election ballot included Sharon Hansen representing the Libertarian Party. Fuji Shioura also appeared as an Independent write-in candidate.

Ballot Challenges

Several candidates who initially declared intentions or were listed in primary contexts faced ballot removal. Chad Koppie (Constitution Party) and Omar Lopez (Green Party) were removed from the ballot prior to the general election.

Campaign Finance Overview

Financial Commitments

Campaign finance reports provide insight into the financial resources allocated by each campaign. Senator Durbin's campaign reported raising approximately $10.3 million and spending around $12.45 million. In contrast, Jim Oberweis's campaign raised approximately $2.39 million and spent about $2.42 million. Sharon Hansen's campaign reported significantly lower figures, with $2,420 raised and $2,367 spent.

Candidate Debates

Key Exchanges

A notable debate between the major candidates took place on October 22, 2014. These forums are critical for candidates to articulate their platforms and engage directly with voters, offering insights into their policy positions and leadership styles.

Pre-Election Polling

Public Opinion Trends

Throughout the campaign, various polling organizations tracked public sentiment regarding the Illinois Senate race. These polls generally indicated a consistent lead for incumbent Senator Dick Durbin over his Republican challenger, Jim Oberweis. The margin varied across different surveys, with undecided voters often comprising a significant portion of the electorate in earlier polls.

Summary of Key Polls (General Election):

Poll Source Date(s) Administered Sample Size Margin of Error Dick Durbin (D) Jim Oberweis (R) Other Undecided
We Ask America September 24, 2013 1,434 ± 2.86% 50% 39% 11%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 557 ± 4.2% 51% 36% 12%
Rasmussen Reports April 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 51% 37% 3% 10%
We Ask America June 12, 2014 1,116 ± 2.93% 52% 39% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 5,324 ± 2.1% 48% 41% 1% 11%
We Ask America July 30, 2014 1,049 ± 3.04% 53% 38% 9%
Gravis Marketing August 4–5, 2014 567 ± 4% 48% 38% 14%
Harper Polling* August 25–27, 2014 1,340 ± 2.68% 44% 38% 8% 10%
We Ask America August 27, 2014 1,049 ± 3.02% 48% 41% 4% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 4,363 ± 3% 50% 38% 1% 10%
We Ask America September 4, 2014 1,014 ± 3.08% 49% 39% 4% 8%
Chicago Tribune September 3–12, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 55% 32% 5% 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 51% 37% 4% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 3,955 ± 3% 51% 39% 0% 9%
We Ask America October 7, 2014 1,086 ± 2.98% 51% 38% 4% 6%
UIS Survey Research October 2–8, 2014 723 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 1% 14%
Southern Illinois University (LV) September 23 – October 15, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 0% 12%
Southern Illinois University (RV) September 23 – October 15, 2014 1,006 ± 3% 49% 32% 0% 14%
APC Research October 16–21, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 50% 36% 7% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 3,519 ± 3% 52% 39% 1% 9%
McKeon & Associates October 28, 2014 823 ± 3.9% 49% 39% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014 1,064 ± 3% 51% 41% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014 1,064 ± 3% 52% 44% 4%

* Internal poll for the Jim Oberweis campaign.

Electoral Analysis

Election Projections

Leading political analysis organizations provided their projections for the Illinois Senate race. These included The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Rothenberg Political Report, and Real Clear Politics. The consensus among these forecasters was that the race was strongly favorable to the incumbent, classifying it as "Solid D," "Safe D," or "Likely D," indicating a high probability of a Durbin victory.

County-Level Shifts

A detailed analysis of the election results reveals shifts in voting patterns at the county level. Several counties that had previously supported the Democratic candidate in prior elections demonstrated a trend towards the Republican nominee in 2014. This phenomenon, often indicative of broader political realignments or specific local dynamics, is visually represented on electoral maps.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican support:

  • Bond (largest city: Greenville)
  • Bureau (largest city: Princeton)
  • Cass (largest city: Beardstown)
  • Christian (largest city: Taylorville)
  • Clay (largest city: Flora)
  • Clinton (largest city: Breese)
  • Coles (largest city: Charleston)
  • DeKalb (largest city: DeKalb)
  • Fayette (largest city: Vandalia)
  • Greene (largest city: Carrollton)
  • Grundy (largest city: Morris)
  • Hamilton (largest city: McLeansboro)
  • Hancock (largest city: Hamilton)
  • Hardin (largest city: Rosiclare)
  • Jefferson (largest city: Mount Vernon)
  • Jersey (largest city: Jerseyville)
  • Jo Daviess (largest city: Galena)
  • Kankakee (largest city: Kankakee)
  • Lawrence (largest city: Lawrenceville)
  • Marion (largest city: Centralia)
  • Marshall (largest city: Henry)
  • Mason (largest city: Havana)
  • Massac (largest city: Metropolis)
  • McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
  • Moultrie (largest city: Sullivan)
  • Piatt (largest city: Monticello)
  • Pike (largest city: Pittsfield)
  • Pope (largest city: Golconda)
  • Randolph (largest city: Chester)
  • Saline (largest city: Harrisburg)
  • Schuyler (largest city: Rushville)
  • Shelby (largest city: Shelbyville)
  • Union (largest city: Anna)
  • Vermilion (largest city: Danville)
  • Warren (largest city: Monmouth)
  • White (largest city: Carmi)
  • Will (largest city: Joliet)
  • Williamson (largest city: Marion)
  • Winnebago (largest city: Rockford)
  • Franklin (largest city: West Frankfort)
  • Henry (largest city: Kewanee)
  • LaSalle (largest city: Ottawa)
  • Macon (largest city: Decatur)
  • Macoupin (largest city: Carlinville)
  • Montgomery (largest city: Litchfield)
  • Perry (largest city: Du Quoin)
  • Boone (largest city: Belvidere)
  • Carroll (largest city: Savanna)
  • DuPage (largest city: Aurora)
  • Kane (largest city: Aurora)
  • Kendall (largest village: Oswego)
  • McHenry (largest city: Crystal Lake)
  • McLean (largest city: Bloomington)
  • Stephenson (largest city: Freeport)
  • Adams (largest city: Quincy)
  • Brown (largest city: Mount Sterling)
  • Cumberland (largest city: Neoga)
  • Crawford (largest city: Robinson)
  • DeWitt (largest city: Clinton)
  • Douglas (largest city: Tuscola)
  • Clark (largest city: Marshall)
  • Edgar (largest city: Paris)
  • Effingham (largest city: Effingham)
  • Ford (largest city: Paxton)
  • Iroquois (largest city: Watseka)
  • Jasper (largest city: Newton)
  • Lake (largest city: Waukegan)
  • Livingston (largest city: Pontiac)
  • Lee (largest city: Dixon)
  • Logan (largest city: Lincoln)
  • Madison (largest city: Granite City)
  • Menard (largest city: Petersburg)
  • Mercer (largest city: Aledo)
  • Monroe (largest city: Waterloo)
  • Morgan (largest city: Jacksonville)
  • Ogle (largest city: Rochelle)
  • Peoria (largest city: Peoria)
  • Putnam (largest city: Hennepin)
  • Richland (largest city: Olney)
  • Sangamon (largest city: Springfield)
  • Scott (largest city: Winchester)
  • Tazewell (largest city: Pekin)
  • Wabash (largest city: Mount Carmel)
  • Washington (largest city: Nashville)

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References

References

  1.  Choose Truax to challenge Durbin Chicago Tribune, March 5, 2014
  2.  Market Shares Corp.
  3.  Public Policy Polling
  4.  Open Secrets | Elections | U.S. Senate opensecrets.org
  5.  We Ask America
  6.  Rasmussen Reports
  7.  We Ask America
  8.  CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  9.  Gravis Marketing
  10.  Harper Polling*
  11.  We Ask America
  12.  CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  13.  We Ask America
  14.  Chicago Tribune
  15.  CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  16.  UIS Survey Research
  17.  Southern Illinois University
  18.  APC Research
  19.  McKeon & Associates
  20.  Public Policy Polling
  21.  Public Policy Polling
A full list of references for this article are available at the 2014 United States Senate election in Illinois Wikipedia page

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Academic Disclaimer

Important Notice Regarding Content

This document has been generated by an artificial intelligence system, drawing upon publicly available data. It is intended strictly for educational and informational purposes, providing an academic perspective on the 2014 Illinois Senate election. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy and comprehensiveness based on the source material, the content may not reflect the most current information or nuances of the electoral process.

This is not professional political or electoral advice. The information presented herein should not be considered a substitute for consultation with qualified political scientists, historians, or election analysts. Users are encouraged to consult primary sources and expert analyses for definitive understanding. The creators of this page assume no liability for any errors, omissions, or actions taken based on the information provided.