What are social cycle theories in sociology?

Social cycle theories are among the earliest social theories in sociology that propose that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles, contrasting with social evolutionism which views societal evolution as progressing in unique directions. These theories suggest that historical patterns are not linear but rather recur over time.

How do social cycle theories differ from social evolutionism, and can they account for social progress?

Social cycle theories suggest that societal events and historical stages tend to repeat in cyclical patterns, whereas social evolutionism posits that the evolution of society and human history progresses in new and unique directions. Despite this cyclical view, early theories by Sima Qian and more recent political-demographic cycle theories explicitly incorporate social progress into their frameworks, indicating that cycles do not necessarily preclude advancement.

What historical belief about cycles was common among ancient cultures, and what Greek term was used to describe government cycles?

Ancient cultures commonly believed that history repeated itself in cycles of Dark and Golden Ages, reflecting a recurring pattern of prosperity and decline. The Greek term 'Kyklos' was used by classical Greek authors to describe what they considered the cycle of governments in a society, often based on the political changes observed in Greek city-states.

Which classical thinkers were precursors to the academic analysis of cyclical history in the 19th century?

Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Giambattista Vico are considered precursors to the academic analysis of cyclical history, which emerged in the 19th century within historiosophy (the philosophy of history) and sociology. These thinkers laid foundational ideas for understanding history as a series of repeating patterns.

Where does Plato describe his cycle of governments, and what are the five forms he identifies?

Plato describes his cycle of governments in his philosophical work 'Republic,' specifically in Book VIII and IX. He identifies five forms of government: aristocracy, timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and tyranny, each representing a stage in a political decline.

Explain Plato's sequence of governmental devolution and its underlying anthropological link.

Plato's cycle of governmental devolution moves from aristocracy (ruled by rationality) to timocracy (ruled by honor), then to oligarchy (ruled by the pursuit of wealth), democracy (ruled by the pursuit of freedom), and finally tyranny (ruled by the pursuit of power). He believed that the moral character and guiding principles of the rulers determined the form and stability of the government.

What is Polybius's concept of the cycle of governments called, and what are its six stages?

Polybius's concept of the cycle of governments is called *anacyclosis*. It rotates through six stages: ochlocracy (mob rule), monarchy, tyranny, aristocracy, oligarchy, and democracy, before returning to ochlocracy, thus completing a full cycle of political forms.

How did Polybius propose to achieve government stability, and which historical example did he use?

Polybius advocated for a mixed government that blends elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy to achieve greater stability and prevent the rapid degeneration seen in pure forms of government. He viewed the Roman Republic as the embodiment of this ideal mixed constitution, attributing its prolonged power and stability to this balance.

How did Cicero's and Machiavelli's interpretations of *anacyclosis* relate to Polybius's theory?

Cicero, in 'De re publica,' was heavily inspired by Polybius's *anacyclosis* but argued that the Roman state could avoid the destructive cycle by returning to its ancient virtues, known as *mos maiorum*. Machiavelli, in 'Discourses on Livy,' adopted the idea of a circular structure of alternating government types but did not accept Polybius's rigid pattern of natural governmental devolution, suggesting more variability in historical progression.

How did Thomas Carlyle and Oswald Spengler contribute to 19th and 20th-century social cycle theories?

Thomas Carlyle viewed history as a phoenix, with civilizations growing and dying in cycles akin to seasons, seeing the French Revolution as a 'winter' from which a new society would emerge. Oswald Spengler, in 'Der Untergang des Abendlandes' (The Decline of the West), similarly argued that Western civilization had entered its final phase of development and was destined for decline.

What was Nikolai Danilewski's theory on civilizations, and what was his prediction for the Roman-German and Slav civilizations?

Nikolai Danilewski, in 'Rossiia i Evropa' (1869), theorized that various smaller civilizations, such as Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greek, Roman, German, and Slav, each possess a distinct life cycle. He predicted that by the end of the 19th century, Roman-German civilization was in decline, while Slav civilization was approaching its Golden Age.

Describe Vilfredo Pareto's first social cycle theory in sociology.

Vilfredo Pareto's first social cycle theory in sociology, presented in his 'Trattato di Sociologia Generale' (1916), centered on the concept of an elite social class. He divided this elite into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions,' proposing that power constantly cycles and passes between these two types of leaders within society.

What was Pitirim A. Sorokin's classification of societies, and his prophecy for the modern West?

Pitirim A. Sorokin, in his 'Social and Cultural Dynamics' (1937, 1943), classified societies based on their 'cultural mentality,' which could be ideational (reality is spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilization, dedicated to technological progress, and prophesied its eventual fall into decadence, leading to the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era.

What was Alexandre Deulofeu's mathematical model of social cycles, and what was his hope for its application?

Alexandre Deulofeu, in his 1951 book 'Mathematics of History,' developed a mathematical model of social cycles, claiming it fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations pass through at least three 1,700-year cycles, and empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. Deulofeu hoped that by understanding the nature of these cycles, it might be possible to modify them to achieve peaceful societal change instead of leading to war.

How do literary works like 'Penguin Island' and 'A Canticle for Leibowitz' express social cycle theories?

Literary works like Anatole France's 1908 satirical novel 'Penguin Island' and Walter M. Miller Jr.'s 'A Canticle for Leibowitz' express social cycle theories by depicting narratives where civilizations repeatedly rise, collapse (often due to self-destruction or societal decay), and then slowly rebuild, only to repeat the cycle of progress and decline. This reflects the idea that humanity is prone to repeating its past mistakes.

What is the significance of political-demographic cycles in contemporary social theories?

The discovery of political-demographic cycles is a crucial recent finding in the study of long-term dynamic social processes, identified as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems across Europe, China, and chiefdom-level societies worldwide. These cycles highlight recurring patterns in population dynamics and political stability.

Who developed long cycle theory, and what does it connect?

George Modelski developed long cycle theory, outlined in his book 'Long Cycles in World Politics' (1987). This theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership, suggesting a patterned succession of global powers.

What is the typical duration of a long cycle, and how does Modelski view war within this framework?

A long cycle typically lasts approximately 70 to 100 years, or 87 to 122 years when periods of global war are included. Modelski views wars not as random acts of international anarchy, but as 'systemic decisions' that are a natural product of the long cycle, punctuating the movement of the global system at regular intervals.

Which nations have historically served as hegemons according to long cycle theory, and what economic phenomena correlate with these cycles?

According to long cycle theory, hegemons have included Portugal (during the 16th century), the Netherlands (17th century), Great Britain (twice, during the 18th and 19th centuries), and the United States (since the end of World War II). These hegemonic cycles strongly correlate with economic Kondratieff Waves, which are long-term economic cycles.

What is Joshua S Goldstein's concept of the 'political midlife crisis,' and provide two historical examples.

Joshua S Goldstein's 'political midlife crisis,' advanced in his 1988 book 'Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age,' describes a period when a dominant power faces significant challenges or engages in major conflicts after a period of growth and expansion. Two historical examples include the British Empire's Crimean War (1853-1856) and the German Empire's World War I (1914-1918).

Provide two more historical examples of 'political midlife crises' as described by Joshua S Goldstein.

Further examples of 'political midlife crises' described by Joshua S Goldstein include the Soviet Union's Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), where it sought strategic parity with the United States, and the United States' involvement in the Vietnam War (1955-1975) after its post-World War II military and industrial expansion.

What are Kondratiev waves in economics, and what is the general economic consensus regarding them?

Kondratiev waves, also called supercycles or long economic cycles, are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy, characterized by alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and relatively slow growth, typically lasting forty to sixty years. However, most economists dismiss these theories, viewing recessions as essentially random events and the appearance of cycles as a result of pareidolia, or perceiving patterns where none exist.

Who are the key figures in contemporary secular cycles theory, and what is their primary achievement?

Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, and Sergey Malkov are key figures in contemporary secular cycles theory. Their primary achievement is demonstrating that sociodemographic cycles are a basic and universal feature of complex agrarian systems, rather than being specific to particular regions like China or Europe.

Describe the four-stage dynamic of sociodemographic cycles in agrarian systems.

The four-stage dynamic begins with population growth reaching the land's carrying capacity, leading to significant societal stress, declining living standards, and increased famines and rebellions. This is followed by a demographic collapse, often a Malthusian catastrophe, due to severe famines, epidemics, and internal warfare. The collapse then frees up resources, increases per capita production and consumption, and allows population growth to resume, initiating a new cycle.

What are the two main phases and their subphases in secular cycles theory, and what happens during an 'intercycle'?

Secular cycles theory identifies two main phases: the integrative phase, which includes expansion (growth) and stagflation (compression), and the disintegrative phase, which includes the crisis phase (state breakdown) and depression/intercycle. An 'intercycle' is a period where a functioning state collapses and takes some time to rebuild before a new cycle can properly begin.

Summarize the characteristic features of the Integrative phase (Expansion and Stagflation) in structural-demographic cycles.

In the Expansion phase of the integrative cycle, the population increases, elites experience low population and consumption, state strength and collective solidarity are increasing, and sociopolitical instability is low. During the Stagflation phase, population slowly increases, elite population, competition, and consumption rise, state strength is high but decreasing, and sociopolitical instability begins to increase.

Summarize the characteristic features of the Disintegrative phase (Crisis and Depression/Intercycle) in structural-demographic cycles.

During the Crisis phase of the disintegrative cycle, the population decreases, elite conflicts and inequality are high, state strength collapses, and sociopolitical instability is high. In the Depression/Intercycle, the population slowly decreases further, elite population reduces, downward mobility occurs, consumption is reduced, attempts are made to rebuild the state, and sociopolitical instability decreases as society stabilizes.

What is the 'fathers and sons' cycle, and in which phase of secular cycles theory does it occur?

The 'fathers and sons' cycle, described by Peter Turchin, refers to the alternation of periods of strife with relatively peaceful periods that occur within the disintegrative phases of secular cycles. This alternation typically has a period of about two human generation times, or 40-60 years.

What is the Strauss-Howe generational theory, and what is a 'turning' within it?

The Strauss-Howe generational theory, also known as the Fourth Turning theory, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history. A 'turning' is a new era, typically lasting about 20-22 years, characterized by a distinct social, political, and economic climate, which is unleashed by each generational persona or archetype.

Explain the concept of a 'saeculum' and the recurring crisis pattern in the Fourth Turning theory.

A 'saeculum' in the Fourth Turning theory is a larger cyclical period, representing a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, though some have lasted longer. The theory states that after every saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is then followed by a recovery (or high) where institutions and communitarian values are strong. However, succeeding generational archetypes eventually attack and weaken these institutions, leading to a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

Who developed the cyclical theory of United States history, and what are its two alternating phases?

The cyclical theory of United States history was developed by Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. It posits that US history alternates between two kinds of phases: liberal phases and conservative phases.

Describe the key characteristics of liberal and conservative phases in Schlesinger's cyclical theory.

Liberal phases in Schlesinger's cyclical theory are characterized by increasing democracy, a focus on public purpose, human rights, and concern with the wrongs of the many. Conservative phases, conversely, involve containing democracy, prioritizing private interest, property rights, and concern with the rights of the few. Each kind of phase is believed to generate the other, with activism burnout leading to conservative shifts and accumulated unsolved problems leading to liberal shifts.

What are 'creedal-passion episodes' according to Samuel P. Huntington, and how often do they occur?

Samuel P. Huntington proposed that American history experiences several bursts of 'creedal passion' roughly every 60 years. These episodes represent intense efforts to bring American government closer to the 'American creed,' which is defined as being egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups.

How have United States party systems evolved over history?

The United States has had six distinct party systems throughout its history. Each party system is characterized by a specific platform and set of constituencies for each of the two major parties, and a new system typically emerges from a burst of reform, sometimes involving the disintegration of a party from the previous system, such as the Federalist or Whig parties.

What are the four main types of presidencies identified by Stephen Skowronek in his theory of US regimes?

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek proposed that American history has gone through several regimes, each with four main types of presidencies. These include 'reconstructive' presidents who initiate a new regime, 'articulating' presidents who are successors within the dominant party, 'preemptive' presidents who are elected from the opposition party, and 'disjunctive' presidents from the dominant party who mark the end of a regime.

Explain Frank Klingberg's cyclic theory of US foreign policy.

Frank Klingberg's cyclic theory of US foreign policy suggests that the United States alternates between 'extroverted' phases and 'introverted' phases. Extroverted phases involve military adventures, challenging other nations, and annexing territory, while introverted phases are characterized by the absence of these activities, indicating a period of withdrawal or reduced international engagement.

Social Cycle Theory Wiki: Echoes of Time: Navigating the Recurrent Patterns of Social Evolution

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What is Social Cycle Theory?

Beyond Linear Progress

Social cycle theories represent some of the earliest sociological frameworks, positing that societal events and historical stages generally recur in cyclical patterns. This perspective contrasts sharply with social evolutionism, which views societal development as progressing in a novel, unique, and often linear direction. While emphasizing recurrence, these theories do not necessarily negate the possibility of social progress, often integrating it within the larger cyclical framework.

Historical Roots and Modern Relevance

The notion of history unfolding in repeating cycles has deep roots in ancient cultures, often conceptualized as alternating "Dark" and "Golden Ages." From these ancient philosophical inquiries to sophisticated mathematical models of political-demographic dynamics, the idea of cyclical social change has persisted. Early theorists like Sima Qian, for instance, explicitly accounted for social progress within their cyclical interpretations, a theme that resonates in more recent long-term political-demographic cycle theories.^[1]

Ancient & Classical Perspectives

The Greek Kyklos

The concept of kyklos (Ancient Greek: κύκλος, "cycle") was a prominent idea among classical Greek authors to describe the perceived cyclical nature of governmental forms within a society. This framework was largely informed by the historical experiences of Greek city-states. Key figures such as Plato, Aristotle, and Polybius each developed their unique interpretations of this cycle, often viewing it as a detrimental pattern that societies should strive to break.^[2]

Plato's Regimes of Decline

In his seminal work, Republic (Books VIII and IX), Plato outlines a cycle of five governmental forms: aristocracy, timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and tyranny. He posits a sequential degeneration from the ideal aristocracy, governed by rationality, to tyranny, driven by the pursuit of power. This devolution is intrinsically linked to the changing anthropological characteristics of the rulers. Plato advocated for a "philosopher king" to maintain an aristocratic, and thus most desirable, form of government, thereby attempting to halt this cyclical decline.^[3]^[4]^[5]

Polybius' Anacyclosis

Polybius, offering the most comprehensive classical account of the kyklos, described a rotation through three basic governmental forms—democracy, aristocracy, and monarchy—and their corresponding degenerate forms: ochlocracy, oligarchy, and tyranny. This cycle, which he termed anacyclosis, begins with ochlocracy, progresses to monarchy, degenerates into tyranny, is overthrown by an aristocracy, which then becomes an oligarchy, leading to a popular uprising establishing democracy, which eventually corrupts into ochlocracy, restarting the cycle.^[6] Polybius championed the concept of a mixed government, exemplified by the Roman Republic, as a means to achieve greater stability and power by blending elements of all three ideal forms.^[6]^[7]

Cicero and Machiavelli's Interpretations

Cicero, in his work De re publica, adopted a version of anacyclosis heavily influenced by Polybius. However, Cicero believed that the Roman state, despite its mixed government, could escape this harmful cycle by adhering to its ancient virtues (mos maiorum).^[8]^[9] Centuries later, during the Renaissance, Niccolò Machiavelli also embraced Polybius' cyclical structure in his Discourses on Livy (Book I, Chapter II). While accepting the alternating nature of governmental types, Machiavelli diverged from Polybius by not necessarily subscribing to the exact, predetermined pattern of governmental devolution.^[10]^[11]

19th & 20th Century Theories

Carlyle's Phoenix of Civilization

The 19th century saw renewed interest in cyclical historical interpretations. Thomas Carlyle conceptualized history as a phoenix, undergoing stages of growth and decay akin to the seasons. He viewed the French Revolution, for instance, as the "ashes" or "winter" of European civilization, from which a new societal structure would inevitably emerge.^[12]

Civilizational Life Cycles

Russian philosopher Nikolai Danilewski, in Rossiia i Evropa (1869), proposed that various smaller civilizations (e.g., Egyptian, Chinese, Greek, Roman, German, Slav) each possess a distinct life cycle. He contended that by the late 19th century, Roman-German civilization was in decline, while Slav civilization was approaching its "Golden Age." This idea was echoed by Oswald Spengler in Der Untergang des Abendlandes (1918), who argued that Western civilization had entered its terminal phase of development, making its decline unavoidable.

Pareto's Elite Circulation

Italian sociologist and economist Vilfredo Pareto introduced a significant social cycle theory in his Trattato di Sociologia Generale (1916). His theory centered on the concept of an elite social class, which he categorized into two types: cunning "foxes" and violent "lions." Pareto posited that power within society constantly shifts between these two types of elites, creating a perpetual cycle of circulation.

Sorokin's Cultural Dynamics

Pitirim A. Sorokin further developed sociological cycle theory in his extensive work, Social and Cultural Dynamics (1937, 1943). He classified societies based on their "cultural mentality": ideational (spiritual reality), sensate (material reality), or idealistic (a synthesis of both). Sorokin interpreted the contemporary Western world as a sensate civilization, heavily invested in technological advancement, and prophesied its eventual decline into decadence, paving the way for a new ideational or idealistic era.

Deulofeu's Mathematical History

Alexandre Deulofeu proposed a mathematical model of social cycles in his 1951 Catalan book, Mathematics of History. He asserted that civilizations and empires undergo predictable cycles. According to his model, each civilization experiences a minimum of three 1,700-year cycles, and empires typically have an average lifespan of 550 years. Deulofeu believed that understanding these cyclical patterns could enable societies to modify them, fostering peaceful transitions instead of conflict.

Literary Echoes of Cycles

Post-Apocalyptic Narratives

The theme of cyclical history, particularly the rise and fall of civilizations, is a recurring motif in post-apocalyptic fiction. These narratives often depict societies collapsing and then slowly rebuilding, only to face another inevitable decline, illustrating a pessimistic view of human progress.

Anatole France's Penguin Island

An early and notable example is Anatole France's 1908 satirical novel, Penguin Island (French: L'Île des Pingouins). The novel traces the history of Penguinia, a thinly veiled allegory for France, from medieval times through modernity and into a future dominated by a monstrous super-city. This super-city eventually collapses, leading to a return to feudalism and an agrarian society, which then gradually rebuilds into another advanced civilization, only to collapse once more, perpetuating the cycle.

Miller's A Canticle for Leibowitz

Walter M. Miller Jr.'s A Canticle for Leibowitz provides another powerful literary exploration of cyclical history. Set after a devastating nuclear war, the story begins with the Catholic Church preserving remnants of ancient texts, mirroring its role in the historical Early Middle Ages. The narrative concludes with a new civilization, painstakingly constructed over two millennia, once again destroying itself in a nuclear conflict. A new generation of Catholic clergy then embarks on a similar mission to safeguard knowledge, highlighting the inescapable recurrence of human folly and renewal.

Hoyle's October the First Is Too Late

In Fred Hoyle's 1966 science fiction novel, October the First Is Too Late, protagonists discover a future where the United States has reverted to a pre-urban state. They eventually realize that humanity is trapped in repeated cycles of industrialization, overpopulation, and collapse, followed by rebuilding, only to repeat the destructive pattern. In this distant future, a civilization aware of this history actively resists further progress, seeking to break free from the relentless cycle.

Contemporary Theories & Models

Political-Demographic Cycles

Recent scholarship has highlighted political-demographic cycles as a fundamental characteristic of complex agrarian systems. These cycles, observed in pre-modern Europe and China, as well as in chiefdom-level societies globally,^[13] have been increasingly modeled mathematically since the 1980s. Researchers like Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, and Sergey Malkov have demonstrated that these sociodemographic cycles are not region-specific but a universal feature of such systems.^[26]

Long Cycle Theory

George Modelski, in Long Cycles in World Politics (1987), developed long cycle theory, which examines the interplay between war cycles, economic dominance, and global leadership. These "long cycles," lasting approximately 70 to 100 years, describe an orderly succession of leading states (e.g., Portugal, Netherlands, Great Britain, United States). Modelski argues that global wars and destabilizing events are not anomalies but integral "systemic decisions" that punctuate the system's movement, demonstrating a structured, rather than anarchic, global political process.^[14]^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18]

Kondratiev Waves

In economics, Kondratiev waves (also known as supercycles or long economic cycles) are hypothesized phenomena in the modern world economy, suggesting alternating intervals of high and slow sectoral economic growth over periods of forty to sixty years.^[20]^[21] However, most economists largely dismiss these theories, citing econometric analyses that indicate recessions are essentially random events, and that perceived cyclical patterns are often a result of pareidolia rather than predictable economic rhythms.^[22]^[23]^[24]^[25]

Secular Cycles Theory

The secular cycles theory, significantly advanced by Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin, and Andrey Korotayev, posits that sociodemographic cycles are a fundamental feature of complex agrarian systems. The core logic involves a population reaching the land's carrying capacity, leading to declining living standards, increased stress, and eventually a demographic collapse (a Malthusian catastrophe). This collapse frees up resources, allowing for population growth to resume and initiating a new cycle. These dynamics can be effectively modeled mathematically, and importantly, these theories integrate both cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.^[27]

Secular cycle models typically comprise two main phases, each with two subphases:

Feature	Integrative Phase		Disintegrative Phase
Feature	Expansion (Growth)	Stagflation (Compression)	Crisis (State Breakdown)	Depression / Intercycle
Population	Increases	Slow increase	Decreases	Slow decrease
Elites	Low population and consumption	Increasing population and competition and consumption	High population, conflicts, high inequality	Reduction of population, downward mobility, reduced consumption
State Strength & Collective Solidarity	Increasing	High but decreasing	Collapse	Attempts at rebuilding
Sociopolitical Instability	Low	Increasing	High	Decreasing

Disintegrative phases are not continuously chaotic but feature alternating periods of strife and relative peace, often following a "fathers and sons" cycle of approximately 40-60 years.

Strauss-Howe Generational Theory

Also known as the Fourth Turning theory, this framework by William Strauss and Neil Howe describes a recurring generational cycle in American history. It posits that historical events are linked to recurring generational archetypes, each initiating a "turning" (lasting 20-22 years) with a distinct social, political, and economic climate. These turnings form a larger cyclical "saeculum" (80-90 years), at the end of which a crisis recurs, followed by a recovery where institutions and communitarian values strengthen. Subsequent generations then challenge these institutions in the name of autonomy, leading to a tumultuous environment ripe for another crisis.^[32]

US Political Cycles

Several theories propose cyclical patterns in United States history:

Schlesinger Cycles: Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Jr. theorized that US history alternates between liberal phases (increasing democracy, public purpose) and conservative phases (containing democracy, private interest). Each phase generates the next due to "activism burnout" or the accumulation of unsolved problems.^[28]^[29]^[30]^[31]
Huntington's Creedal Passion: Samuel P. Huntington identified bursts of "creedal passion" roughly every 60 years, representing efforts to align American government more closely with its egalitarian, participatory, and responsive ideals.^[32]^[33]^[34]
Party Systems: US history has seen six distinct party systems, each characterized by a unique platform and constituency for the two major parties. New systems emerge from periods of reform or the disintegration of previous parties.
Skowronek's Presidency Types: Stephen Skowronek proposed that American history cycles through various regimes, each with a dominant and opposition party, and four types of presidencies: "reconstructive" (starting a regime), "articulating" (successors in the dominant party), "preemptive" (opposition party presidents), and "disjunctive" (ending a regime).^[32]^[35]^[36]^[37]^[38]^[39]^[40]^[41]
Klingberg's Foreign Policy: Frank Klingberg observed a cyclical pattern in US foreign policy, alternating between "extroverted" phases (military involvement, challenging nations, territorial expansion) and "introverted" phases (absence of such activities).^[29]^[42]^[43]^[44]^[45]

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References

Jimmy Myers. "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War." St. Joseph News-Press. 2 Mar 2007.

George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.

The term long wave originated from a poor early translation of long cycle from Russian to German. Freeman, Chris; LouÃ§Ã£, Francisco (2001) pp 70

Drautzburg, Thorsten. "Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles." Economic Insights 4, no. 1 (2019): 1-8.

Slutzky, Eugen. "The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1937): 105-146.

Chatterjee, Satyajit. "From cycles to shocks: Progress in business cycle theory." Business Review 3 (2000): 27-37.

A full list of references for this article are available at the Social cycle theory Wikipedia page

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Echoes of Time: Navigating the Recurrent Patterns of Social Evolution

💡 Dive in with Flashcard Learning! 💡

What is Social Cycle Theory? 🤔

🔄 Beyond Linear Progress

📜 Historical Roots and Modern Relevance

Ancient & Classical Perspectives 🏛️

🇬🇷 The Greek Kyklos

🧠 Plato's Regimes of Decline

🔄 Polybius' Anacyclosis

🏛️ Cicero and Machiavelli's Interpretations

19th & 20th Century Theories 🕰️

🔥 Carlyle's Phoenix of Civilization

🌍 Civilizational Life Cycles

⚖️ Pareto's Elite Circulation

🔮 Sorokin's Cultural Dynamics

🔢 Deulofeu's Mathematical History

Literary Echoes of Cycles 📚

dystopian Post-Apocalyptic Narratives

🐧 Anatole France's Penguin Island

☢️ Miller's A Canticle for Leibowitz

🌌 Hoyle's October the First Is Too Late

Contemporary Theories & Models 📊

📈 Political-Demographic Cycles

🌐 Long Cycle Theory

📉 Kondratiev Waves

🔄 Secular Cycles Theory

generational Strauss-Howe Generational Theory

🇺🇸 US Political Cycles

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Dive in with Flashcard Learning!

What is Social Cycle Theory?

Beyond Linear Progress

Historical Roots and Modern Relevance

Ancient & Classical Perspectives

The Greek Kyklos

Plato's Regimes of Decline

Polybius' Anacyclosis

Cicero and Machiavelli's Interpretations

19th & 20th Century Theories

Carlyle's Phoenix of Civilization

Civilizational Life Cycles

Pareto's Elite Circulation

Sorokin's Cultural Dynamics

Deulofeu's Mathematical History

Literary Echoes of Cycles

Post-Apocalyptic Narratives

Anatole France's Penguin Island

Miller's A Canticle for Leibowitz

Hoyle's October the First Is Too Late

Contemporary Theories & Models

Political-Demographic Cycles

Long Cycle Theory

Kondratiev Waves

Secular Cycles Theory

Strauss-Howe Generational Theory

US Political Cycles

Teacher's Corner

True or False?

Test Your Knowledge!

Gamer's Corner

Discover other topics to study!

References

Feedback & Support

Disclaimer

Important Notice