Demographic Uncertainties
Exploring the complexities, methodologies, and trends surrounding individuals residing in the United States without legal status.
Explore Data 📊 Understand Methods 🔬Dive in with Flashcard Learning!
🎮 Play the Wiki2Web Clarity Challenge Game🎮
Population Size
Historical Trends
The precise size of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States is inherently difficult to ascertain due to the nature of this demographic. However, available data indicates a significant decline from its peak around 2007 until at least 2018. Conversely, border apprehension numbers, while fluctuating, reached new peaks around 2021 after a period of decline post-2000.
Key Estimates
Estimates vary considerably across sources:
- 1980: Approximately 2.06 million individuals.
- 1990-2007: Rapid growth, peaking at an estimated 12.2 million in 2007.
- 2014: Pew Research Center estimated 11.1 million (approx. 3% of the U.S. population).
- 2012: Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated 11.4 million.
- 2016: Center for Migration Studies reported the lowest number since 2003, at 10.9 million.
- 2018 (Contested): A Yale study proposed a range of 16-29 million, though its methodology faced criticism for potential overestimation.
Post-Recession Decline
The Great Recession significantly impacted employment sectors often utilized by undocumented workers, such as construction. This economic downturn, coupled with a surplus of domestic labor, contributed to a decrease in undocumented immigration and an increase in returns to Mexico, particularly among Mexican nationals.
Estimation Methodologies
The Residual Method
The most common approach is the "residual method." This involves subtracting the number of legally documented immigrants from the total foreign-born population reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This difference is considered the residual, or undocumented, population.
Key institutions employing this method include:
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
- Pew Hispanic Center
- Center for Immigration Studies (CIS)
- U.S. Census Bureau
Methodological Challenges
Critics raise several concerns regarding the reliability of the residual method:
- Out-migration Data: Lack of precise tracking for individuals leaving the U.S.
- Census Undercount: Difficulty in accurately counting undocumented individuals in census data, with assumptions often made (e.g., 10% undercount).
- Response Accuracy: Reliance on self-reported birthplace information.
- Arbitrary Assumptions: The 10% undercount figure is based on limited studies and may not be universally applicable.
Recession's Influence
Employment Sector Shifts
The Great Recession (circa 2007-2009) led to substantial contractions in sectors heavily reliant on undocumented labor, such as construction. This economic downturn reduced job opportunities and diminished the perceived economic advantage of hiring undocumented workers.
Net Emigration
Following the recession, data suggests a reversal in migration trends for certain groups. Between 2009 and 2014, more Mexican nationals returned to Mexico than migrated to the U.S., resulting in a net loss of Mexican population within the United States during that period.
Population Characteristics
Long-Term Residency
By 2014, a significant portion of the undocumented population comprised long-term residents. Approximately two-thirds (66%) had resided in the U.S. for ten years or more, indicating a stabilization and integration pattern rather than recent arrivals.
Workforce Participation
In 2012, undocumented immigrants constituted about 5.1% of the U.S. civilian labor force. They remain disproportionately represented in specific industries:
- Farming, fisheries, and forestry (26%)
- Cleaning, maintenance, and groundskeeping (17%)
- Construction (14%)
- Food preparation (11%)
Undocumented Mexicans
Shifting Demographics
While historically a dominant group, the proportion of undocumented immigrants from Mexico has been steadily declining. As of 2017, Mexicans no longer constituted the majority of the undocumented population.
Population Dynamics
The Mexican-born population in the U.S. (both authorized and unauthorized) saw substantial growth from 1970 to 2004. However, between 2005 and 2014, there was a net loss, with more individuals returning to Mexico than arriving from Mexico. This trend was particularly pronounced among unauthorized migrants, whose share of the total Mexican population in the U.S. decreased from 54% in 2007 to 48% in 2014.
Undocumented APIDA/A Immigrants
Historical Context and Discrimination
Asian Pacific Islanders Desi Americans (APIDA/A) represent a significant immigrant group. Historically, they have faced discrimination through legislation like the Geary Act and the Chinese Exclusion Act. Stereotypes such as the "model minority" myth and the concept of the "perpetual foreigner" continue to shape societal perceptions and impact the experiences of APIDA/A communities, including undocumented individuals.
Population Growth and Origins
Between 2000 and 2015, the undocumented APIDA/A population increased substantially (3.5 times). Key countries of origin for undocumented APIDA/A immigrants include India, China, and the Philippines. Approximately one in seven APIDA/A immigrants in the U.S. is undocumented.
Geographic Distribution
The largest populations of undocumented APIDA/A immigrants are concentrated in states such as California, New York, Texas, and New Jersey. Recent surveys indicate common reasons for immigration include family reunification, economic opportunities, and educational pursuits.
2014 Snapshot
Workforce
In 2014, an estimated 8 million undocumented immigrants were part of the U.S. workforce. A notable portion (5%) were unemployed and seeking work.
Geographic Concentration
California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois collectively housed 59% of the undocumented immigrant population in 2014, mirroring their share of the overall U.S. population.
National Origin Breakdown
Mexicans constituted 52% of all undocumented immigrants in 2014, a decrease from previous years. The total number of Mexican undocumented immigrants was estimated at 5.8 million, down from 6.4 million in 2009.
Teacher's Corner
Edit and Print this course in the Wiki2Web Teacher Studio

Click here to open the "Undocumented Immigrant Population Of The United States" Wiki2Web Studio curriculum kit
Use the free Wiki2web Studio to generate printable flashcards, worksheets, exams, and export your materials as a web page or an interactive game.
True or False?
Test Your Knowledge!
Gamer's Corner
Are you ready for the Wiki2Web Clarity Challenge?

Unlock the mystery image and prove your knowledge by earning trophies. This simple game is addictively fun and is a great way to learn!
Play now
References
References
- Center for Migration Studies. "A Demographic Profile of Undocumented Immigrants from Asia and the Pacific Islands." The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS), 14 June, 2022. Retrieved 2025-02-15.
- Ramakrishnan , Karthick, and Sono Shah . "One out of Every 7 Asian Immigrants Is Undocumented." AAPI Data, 8 Sept, 2017. Retrieved 2025-02-15.
- Tian, Ziyao. "Why Asian Immigrants Come to the U.S. and How They View Life Here." Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 9 Oct. 2024. Retrieved 2025-02-15.
Feedback & Support
To report an issue with this page, or to find out ways to support the mission, please click here.
Disclaimer
Important Notice
This content has been generated by an Artificial Intelligence model and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The information presented is based on data extracted from publicly available sources, primarily Wikipedia, and may not reflect the most current events or complete data. It is crucial to recognize that population estimates for undocumented individuals are inherently complex and subject to varying methodologies and interpretations.
This is not legal or policy advice. The information provided herein should not be construed as professional legal counsel, immigration advice, or policy recommendations. Individuals seeking guidance on immigration status, legal rights, or related matters should consult with qualified immigration attorneys or relevant government agencies. Reliance on this information for legal decisions is strongly discouraged.
The creators of this page assume no responsibility for any inaccuracies, omissions, or actions taken based on the information presented. Always consult official sources and qualified professionals for definitive guidance.