The Shifting Tides
An academic exploration of the 1938 United States House of Representatives elections, examining the political landscape and electoral outcomes.
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Election Overview
Context and Timing
The 1938 United States House of Representatives elections determined the composition of the 76th United States Congress. These elections occurred on November 8, 1938, with some states holding them on September 12, marking a significant point during President Franklin D. Roosevelt's second term.
Democratic Decline
These midterm elections witnessed a substantial setback for President Roosevelt's Democratic Party. They experienced a net loss of 72 seats to the Republican Party. This shift significantly altered the balance of power within the House of Representatives.
Republican Resurgence
The Republican Party achieved considerable gains, winning 81 seats. This resurgence demonstrated a growing opposition to the New Deal policies and provided the GOP with renewed momentum, setting the stage for future electoral contests.
Factors Influencing Outcomes
Economic Headwinds
A primary driver of the Democratic losses was the Recession of 1937. This economic downturn undermined public confidence in the New Deal's efficacy in ending the Great Depression, creating an opening for Republican gains.
Internal Party Strife
Internal divisions within the Democratic Party played a crucial role. Disagreements over President Roosevelt's controversial "Court Packing" plan and his intervention in Democratic primary elections alienated conservative Democrats, weakening party cohesion.
Labor Union Dynamics
The burgeoning labor movement, a key component of the New Deal Coalition, experienced significant internal conflict. The rivalry between the American Federation of Labor (AFL) and the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO) led to a split that affected voter mobilization and political alignment.
Republican Strategy
The Republican Party, having shed weaker elements in previous elections, presented a more unified front. They fielded strong candidates in key states, including future prominent figures like Robert A. Taft, Earl Warren, and Thomas Dewey, capitalizing on the Democratic Party's vulnerabilities.
Electoral Results Summary
Seat Distribution
The election resulted in a significant shift in the House's partisan composition:
| Party | Seats Won | Change | Seat Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 262 | ▼ 72 | 60.2% |
| Republican | 169 | ▲ 81 | 38.9% |
| Progressive | 2 | ▼ 6 | 0.5% |
| Farmer–Labor | 1 | ▼ 4 | 0.2% |
| American Labor | 1 | ▲ 1 | 0.2% |
Popular Vote
The popular vote reflected the close contest and the Republican gains:
| Party | Popular Vote | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 17,715,450 | 48.7% |
| Republican | 17,274,585 | 47.5% |
| Progressive | 350,346 | 1.0% |
| Farmer–Labor | 342,530 | 0.9% |
| American Labor | 250,796 | 0.7% |
Special Elections
Vacancies and Replacements
Several special elections were held to fill vacancies created by resignations or deaths. These often confirmed existing party control but sometimes resulted in party shifts, as seen in Ohio's 4th district.
State-Level Analysis
Regional Trends
The Republican gains were predominantly concentrated in the Northern states, while the Democratic Party maintained strongholds in the South. This pattern reflected existing regional political alignments.
Historical Significance
Impact on Congress
The 1938 elections marked a significant turning point, signaling a potential end to the Democratic dominance established in 1932. The Republican gains bolstered the opposition in Congress, creating a more balanced legislative environment and influencing policy debates for the remainder of Roosevelt's presidency.
Electoral Forecasting
The results provided valuable insights into voter sentiment and the effectiveness of New Deal policies. The Republican Party's success offered a preview of potential shifts in national political power, impacting strategies for the upcoming 1940 presidential election.
Teacher's Corner
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Academic Disclaimer
Important Considerations
This document has been generated by an AI, drawing upon publicly available data from Wikipedia. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and adherence to the source material, it is intended for educational and analytical purposes only.
This is not political commentary or advice. The information presented reflects historical electoral data and analysis derived from the source. It does not constitute endorsement of any political party or ideology, nor does it offer predictive insights into future political events. Users should consult primary sources and diverse academic perspectives for a comprehensive understanding of historical political contexts.
The creators are not liable for any interpretations or actions taken based on the information provided herein.