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The Shifting Tides

An academic exploration of the 1938 United States House of Representatives elections, examining the political landscape and electoral outcomes.

Election Overview 👇 Key Results 📊

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Election Overview

Context and Timing

The 1938 United States House of Representatives elections determined the composition of the 76th United States Congress. These elections occurred on November 8, 1938, with some states holding them on September 12, marking a significant point during President Franklin D. Roosevelt's second term.

Democratic Decline

These midterm elections witnessed a substantial setback for President Roosevelt's Democratic Party. They experienced a net loss of 72 seats to the Republican Party. This shift significantly altered the balance of power within the House of Representatives.

Republican Resurgence

The Republican Party achieved considerable gains, winning 81 seats. This resurgence demonstrated a growing opposition to the New Deal policies and provided the GOP with renewed momentum, setting the stage for future electoral contests.

Factors Influencing Outcomes

Economic Headwinds

A primary driver of the Democratic losses was the Recession of 1937. This economic downturn undermined public confidence in the New Deal's efficacy in ending the Great Depression, creating an opening for Republican gains.

Internal Party Strife

Internal divisions within the Democratic Party played a crucial role. Disagreements over President Roosevelt's controversial "Court Packing" plan and his intervention in Democratic primary elections alienated conservative Democrats, weakening party cohesion.

Labor Union Dynamics

The burgeoning labor movement, a key component of the New Deal Coalition, experienced significant internal conflict. The rivalry between the American Federation of Labor (AFL) and the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO) led to a split that affected voter mobilization and political alignment.

Republican Strategy

The Republican Party, having shed weaker elements in previous elections, presented a more unified front. They fielded strong candidates in key states, including future prominent figures like Robert A. Taft, Earl Warren, and Thomas Dewey, capitalizing on the Democratic Party's vulnerabilities.

Electoral Results Summary

Seat Distribution

The election resulted in a significant shift in the House's partisan composition:

Party Seats Won Change Seat Percentage
Democratic 262 72 60.2%
Republican 169 81 38.9%
Progressive 2 6 0.5%
Farmer–Labor 1 4 0.2%
American Labor 1 1 0.2%

Popular Vote

The popular vote reflected the close contest and the Republican gains:

Party Popular Vote Percentage
Democratic 17,715,450 48.7%
Republican 17,274,585 47.5%
Progressive 350,346 1.0%
Farmer–Labor 342,530 0.9%
American Labor 250,796 0.7%

Special Elections

Vacancies and Replacements

Several special elections were held to fill vacancies created by resignations or deaths. These often confirmed existing party control but sometimes resulted in party shifts, as seen in Ohio's 4th district.

Key special elections included:

  • Kentucky 8th District: Following the resignation of Fred M. Vinson, Joe B. Bates (Democratic) secured the seat, holding it for his party.
  • Alabama 2nd District: J. Lister Hill resigned to become a U.S. Senator; George M. Grant (Democratic) was elected unopposed, maintaining Democratic control.
  • South Carolina 6th District: Allard H. Gasque's death led to the election of Elizabeth H. Gasque (Democratic), who won with a substantial majority.
  • Ohio 4th District: Frank L. Kloeb's resignation resulted in a Republican gain, with Walter H. Albaugh winning the seat.

State-Level Analysis

Regional Trends

The Republican gains were predominantly concentrated in the Northern states, while the Democratic Party maintained strongholds in the South. This pattern reflected existing regional political alignments.

Key State Outcomes:

  • California: Republicans made significant inroads, flipping several Democratic seats, including California's 8th and 14th districts.
  • Illinois: While Democrats held most seats, the Republican Party demonstrated strength, particularly in districts previously held by Democrats.
  • Connecticut: This state saw a notable Republican sweep, with the GOP gaining seats in Districts 1, 2, 4, and the at-large seat, reflecting a broader trend of Democratic losses in the Northeast.
  • Colorado: Democrats largely maintained their positions, with incumbents winning re-election across most districts.
  • New York: The state was a focal point for Republican resurgence, with strong performances by figures like Thomas Dewey contributing to the party's national gains.

Note: A comprehensive state-by-state breakdown is available in the full source data, detailing individual district results and candidate information.

Historical Significance

Impact on Congress

The 1938 elections marked a significant turning point, signaling a potential end to the Democratic dominance established in 1932. The Republican gains bolstered the opposition in Congress, creating a more balanced legislative environment and influencing policy debates for the remainder of Roosevelt's presidency.

Electoral Forecasting

The results provided valuable insights into voter sentiment and the effectiveness of New Deal policies. The Republican Party's success offered a preview of potential shifts in national political power, impacting strategies for the upcoming 1940 presidential election.

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References

References

A full list of references for this article are available at the 1938 United States House of Representatives elections Wikipedia page

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Academic Disclaimer

Important Considerations

This document has been generated by an AI, drawing upon publicly available data from Wikipedia. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and adherence to the source material, it is intended for educational and analytical purposes only.

This is not political commentary or advice. The information presented reflects historical electoral data and analysis derived from the source. It does not constitute endorsement of any political party or ideology, nor does it offer predictive insights into future political events. Users should consult primary sources and diverse academic perspectives for a comprehensive understanding of historical political contexts.

The creators are not liable for any interpretations or actions taken based on the information provided herein.