This is an interactive analysis based on the Wikipedia article concerning the 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska. Read the full source article here. (opens in new tab)

Alaska's Electoral Verdict

A comprehensive analysis of the 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska, examining the state's political landscape and electoral outcomes.

Election Overview ๐Ÿ‘‡ View Results ๐Ÿ“Š

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Election Overview

Electoral Context

The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 5, 2024. Alaska, with its three electoral votes, participated alongside all other states and the District of Columbia. This election marked a significant procedural shift, being the first presidential election in Alaska to utilize ranked-choice voting, following the state's adoption of Measure 2.[2] While historically a Republican-leaning state, Alaska has shown a trend towards closer contests in recent decades.

State Performance

Alaska's electoral performance in 2024 saw Donald Trump secure the state's electoral votes. Trump's victory margin of 13.13% represented an improvement from his 10.1% win in 2020, though it was slightly less than his 14.7% margin in 2016. The state is characterized as a moderately Republican-leaning state, with the Republican candidate having carried it in all but one presidential election since statehood in 1959.

Ranked-Choice Voting

The implementation of ranked-choice voting (RCV) for the first time in a presidential election in Alaska introduced a new dynamic. This system allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference, potentially altering traditional vote-counting and coalition-building strategies. The impact of RCV on voter behavior and final outcomes is a key area of analysis for this election cycle.

Primary Elections

Republican Caucuses

The Alaska Republican caucuses were conducted on March 5, 2024, coinciding with Super Tuesday. Donald Trump emerged as the decisive victor, securing 87.58% of the vote and winning all 29 of the state's pledged delegates. Nikki Haley garnered 12.00%, while Vivek Ramaswamy received a minimal 0.43% before withdrawing.[3]

Democratic Caucuses

On April 13, 2024, the Alaska Democratic caucuses were held. Joe Biden, as the sole candidate on the ballot, won the caucus via voice vote, securing all 15 pledged delegates. This outcome reflected Biden's uncontested status within the party for the nomination.[4][5]

General Election Candidates

Qualified Contenders

Several candidates qualified for the general election ballot in Alaska. The primary contenders were:

  • Donald Trump / JD Vance (Republican)
  • Kamala Harris / Tim Walz (Democratic)
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan (Independent)
  • Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat (Libertarian)
  • Jill Stein / Butch Ware (Independent, Green Party nominee)
  • Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak (American Solidarity Party)
  • Randall Terry / Stephen Broden (Constitution Party)
  • Cornel West / Melina Abdullah (Aurora Party)

Notably, voters did not have the option to write in candidates for president and vice president. This election marked Alaska's first presidential contest utilizing ranked-choice voting.[8] Cornel West appeared on the ballot under the Aurora Party, a party specific to Alaska for presidential elections.[9]

Election Predictions

Expert Forecasts

Leading political analysis organizations consistently projected Alaska as a competitive but ultimately Republican-leaning state. Ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Hill, C-Analysis, CNN, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight, NBC News, YouGov, and Split Ticket generally categorized Alaska as "Solid R," "Safe R," or "Likely R" throughout the election cycle. These consistent predictions underscored the state's established Republican leanings, though the margins varied slightly among forecasters.

Source Rating As of
The Cook Political Report Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Safe R August 26, 2024
CNalysis Very Likely R September 15, 2024
CNN Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist Safe R November 3, 2024
538 Likely R June 11, 2024
NBC News Safe R October 6, 2024
YouGov Solid R November 1, 2024
Split Ticket Likely R November 1, 2024

Pre-Election Polling

Head-to-Head Polling

Pre-election polling indicated a competitive race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump generally holding a lead. Polls from Alaska Survey Research and Cygnal showed Trump leading Harris by margins ranging from 2 to 10 percentage points in various surveys conducted throughout the latter half of 2024. These results suggested a tightening race as election day approached, with undecided voters potentially playing a crucial role.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[21] October 20โ€“22, 2024 1,703 (LV) ยฑ 2.4% 55% 45% โ€“
Alaska Survey Research[22] October 8โ€“9, 2024 1,254 (LV) ยฑ 2.9% 54% 46% โ€“
Cygnal (R)[23][A] August 30 โ€“ September 1, 2024 400 (LV) ยฑ 4.9% 53% 43% 4%

Multi-Candidate Polling

When including third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., polling data indicated a more fragmented support base. In polls featuring Trump, Harris, and Kennedy Jr., Trump generally maintained a lead, but Kennedy Jr. captured a notable percentage of support, typically between 5-7%. This suggests that third-party candidacies could have had a marginal impact on the final outcome, particularly in a state with a history of independent or third-party success.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[21] October 20โ€“22, 2024 1,703 (LV) ยฑ 2.4% 51% 43% 7% โ€“
Alaska Survey Research[22] October 8โ€“9, 2024 1,254 (LV) ยฑ 2.9% 50% 43% 7% โ€“
Alaska Survey Research[24] September 27โ€“29, 2024 1,182 (LV) ยฑ 2.9% 52% 43% 6% โ€“
Alaska Survey Research[25] September 11โ€“12, 2024 1,254 (LV) โ€“ 47% 42% 5% 6%

General Election Results

Final Vote Tally

Donald Trump secured Alaska's three electoral votes with 184,458 votes, representing 54.54% of the total vote. Kamala Harris received 140,026 votes (41.41%). The turnout for the election was reported at 55.80%, a decrease of 4.87 percentage points from the previous election cycle.[1]

2024 United States Presidential Election in Alaska
Party Candidate Votes % ยฑ%
Votes % % ยฑ%
Republican Donald Trump
JD Vance 		184,458 54.54% +1.71%
Democratic Kamala Harris
Tim Walz 		140,026 41.41% -1.36%
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)
Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) 		5,670 1.68% N/A
Libertarian Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat 		3,040 0.90% -2.38%
Independent Jill Stein[b]
Butch Ware 		2,342 0.69% N/A
Aurora Cornel West
Melina Abdullah 		1,127 0.33% N/A
Constitution Randall Terry
Stephen Broden 		812 0.24% -0.07%
American Solidarity Peter Sonski
Lauren Onak 		702 0.21% N/A
Total votes 338,177 100.00%

District-Level Results

State House Districts

Alaska's electoral results are often analyzed by State House districts, as county-level data is not consistently available. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won 24 of the 40 State House districts, while Kamala Harris secured 16. This breakdown illustrates the geographic distribution of support across the state, with Trump performing strongly in rural and interior regions, while Harris maintained support in urban centers like Anchorage and Juneau.

State House District Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		All Others Margin Total votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
1 4,861 56.6% 3,367 39.2% 356 4.2% 1,494 17.4% 8,669
2 4,534 47.4% 4,571 47.8% 458 4.9% 37 0.1% 9,666
3 4,496 40.5% 6,130 55.2% 481 4.4% 1,634 14.7% 11,170
4 2,691 29.0% 6,161 66.5% 418 4.5% 3,470 37.5% 9,335
5 4,351 54.3% 3,328 41.5% 259 4.2% 1,023 13.8% 8,097
6 6,705 55.9% 4,773 39.8% 522 4.3% 1,932 16.1% 12,063
7 6,777 70.5% 2,513 26.2% 319 2.6% 4,264 44.3% 9,687
8 7,950 73.6% 2,576 23.8% 279 2.6% 5,374 49.8% 10,868
9 5,581 47.2% 5,849 49.4% 406 3.5% 268 2.2% 11,938
10 4,357 49.7% 4,070 46.4% 336 3.9% 287 3.3% 8,844
11 4,864 49.4% 4,633 47.1% 343 3.5% 231 2.3% 9,928
12 4,059 47.7% 4,169 49.0% 287 3.3% 110 1.3% 8,569
13 3,589 47.4% 3,682 48.6% 306 4.0% 93 1.2% 7,632
14 2,768 37.3% 4,346 58.5% 312 4.2% 1,578 21.2% 7,495
15 4,594 49.4% 4,364 47.0% 335 3.7% 230 2.4% 9,381
16 3,929 40.6% 4,344 55.3% 396 4.1% 415 14.7% 9,746
17 2,407 31.2% 4,990 64.7% 321 4.1% 2,583 33.5% 7,793
18 2,686 55.8% 1,928 40.0% 202 4.1% 758 15.8% 4,840
19 1,690 39.2% 2,825 56.2% 229 4.6% 1,135 17.0% 5,066
20 3,041 41.8% 3,924 54.0% 302 4.2% 883 12.2% 7,327
21 3,984 44.1% 4,711 52.1% 348 3.9% 727 8.0% 9,108
22 2,594 47.5% 2,660 48.7% 209 3.8% 66 1.2% 5,521
23 6,101 57.1% 4,116 38.5% 468 4.4% 1,985 18.6% 10,742
24 6,482 64.1% 3,234 32.0% 402 4.0% 3,248 32.1% 10,182
25 6,891 65.9% 3,172 30.3% 397 3.9% 3,719 35.6% 10,532
26 7,143 75.6% 2,013 21.3% 292 3.0% 5,130 54.3% 9,492
27 6,785 76.6% 1,807 20.4% 268 3.0% 4,978 56.2% 8,912
28 6,713 72.3% 2,213 23.8% 353 3.7% 4,500 49.5% 9,331
29 7,418 70.6% 2,708 25.8% 374 3.6% 4,710 44.8% 10,570
30 7,312 70.9% 2,701 26.2% 293 2.8% 4,611 44.7% 10,389
31 3,475 49.6% 3,240 46.3% 288 4.1% 235 3.3% 7,084
32 3,742 63.8% 1,883 32.1% 239 4.2% 1,859 31.7% 5,901
33 6,548 73.9% 2,016 22.8% 295 3.4% 4,532 51.1% 8,900
34 5,836 58.3% 3,759 37.5% 417 4.2% 2,077 20.8% 10,092
35 4,395 45.2% 4,885 50.2% 452 4.5% 490 5.0% 9,797
36 5,633 58.7% 3,538 36.9% 427 4.6% 2,095 21.8% 9,720
37 2,208 50.8% 1,921 44.2% 221 5.1% 287 6.6% 4,444
38 1,558 39.0% 2,028 50.8% 408 10.2% 470 11.8% 4,079
39 1,690 40.2% 2,180 51.8% 336 8.0% 490 11.6% 4,308
40 1,688 51.3% 1,362 41.4% 243 7.4% 326 9.9% 3,362
Total 184,458 54.5% 140,026 41.4% 13,693 4.0% 44,432 13.1% 338,177

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Dillingham Census Area (largest city: Dillingham)
  • Lake and Peninsula Borough (largest city: Port Alsworth)
  • Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)

Election Analysis

Key Trends and Observations

Donald Trump's victory in Alaska demonstrated a strengthening of Republican support compared to 2020, particularly in areas with significant Alaska Native populations and in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. This shift occurred despite Kamala Harris retaining Anchorage for the Democrats, marking the first time since 1968 that Alaska voted to the left of Iowa. Trump's success in winning a majority of boroughs and census areas also signaled a return to more traditional Republican dominance in the state's diverse regions. The election highlighted the evolving political geography of Alaska and the impact of national trends on state-level outcomes.

Related Information

Further Reading

  • United States presidential elections in Alaska
  • 2024 United States presidential election
  • 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
  • 2024 Alaska elections

Notes

Clarifications

  • Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline for independent candidates had passed, and thus remained on the ballot.
  • The Green Party of Alaska, a separate entity, nominated Jasmine Sherman. Stein qualified by petition and was listed without party affiliation.
  • Key: RV = registered voters, LV = likely voters, V = unclear.
  • Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee.
  • Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign.

References

Source Citations

The content presented here is derived from publicly available data and academic sources. For detailed verification and further information, please refer to the original Wikipedia article and its cited references.

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References

References

  1.  Key:A รขย€ย“ all adultsRV รขย€ย“ registered votersLV รขย€ย“ likely votersV รขย€ย“ unclear
  2.  Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
  3.  Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
A full list of references for this article are available at the 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska Wikipedia page

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Disclaimer

Important Notice

This page was generated by an Artificial Intelligence and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The content is based on a snapshot of publicly available data from Wikipedia and may not be entirely accurate, complete, or up-to-date.

This is not political or electoral advice. The information provided on this website is not a substitute for professional political analysis, consultation, or advice. Always refer to official election results and consult with qualified professionals for specific electoral or political needs.

The creators of this page are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.