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Ethiopia's Silent Crisis

A scholarly examination of the multifaceted humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Ethiopia's northern regions, from conflict to climate.

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Overview

Geographic Scope & Timeline

Beginning in November 2020, concurrent with the onset of the Tigray War, severe food shortages and widespread starvation emerged across northern Ethiopia. The crisis primarily affects the Tigray, Afar, and Amhara Regions. This period marks a critical humanitarian emergency, with acute food insecurity persisting and evolving due to ongoing challenges.[5]

Scale of the Crisis

As of August 2022, an estimated 13 million individuals faced acute food insecurity across the affected regions. The Tigray Region alone saw 89% of its population in need of food aid, with a staggering 47% experiencing severe hunger. By March 2022, the death toll from starvation was estimated to be between 150,000 and 200,000 people.[5][1]

Catastrophic Conditions

A June 2021 report indicated that over 350,000 people were already enduring catastrophic famine conditions, classified as Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 5. This crisis represents the most severe famine in East Africa since the 2011–2012 drought.[6][7]

Impact

Humanitarian Needs

The humanitarian impact has been profound. In January 2021, a regional administrator in Mekelle, Tigray's capital, warned that "hundreds of thousands" were at risk of starvation, with people "dying while they [were] sleeping" in areas like Adwa.[11] By September 2022, UNICEF reported that approximately 29.7 million people in Ethiopia required humanitarian assistance.[16]

Mortality Rates

The death toll has been a critical concern. In April 2021, the death rate was estimated at 50–100 people per day. By October 2022, Ghent University estimated a daily death rate of 437–914 people. Reports from late 2021 confirmed at least 186 children under five died from starvation in Tigray between June and October of that year.[2][3][22]

Desperate Measures

The extreme conditions have forced populations to adopt desperate coping mechanisms. As of April 2024, many households resorted to sending children to beg, selling their already weakened livestock, and migrating to neighboring nations or even Saudi Arabia in search of survival. This highlights the severe consumption deficits despite increased humanitarian efforts.[17]

Causes

Conflict & Displacement

The primary driver of the famine is the Tigray War, which commenced in November 2020. This conflict led to mass displacement of populations and significant destruction or loss of harvests. The deliberate withholding of food by the federal Ethiopian government, aimed at starving the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), was reported by The Economist, though disputed by the government.[8]

Environmental Factors

Compounding the conflict, environmental disasters played a significant role:

  • Drought: The Horn of Africa experienced a severe drought from 2020–2023, with 2022 recording the driest rainy season in over 40 years. This significantly impacted agricultural output and water availability.[30][31]
  • Locust Swarms: A major desert locust infestation between June 2019 and February 2022 devastated food supplies across East Africa, including Ethiopia. This was the worst infestation in Ethiopia in 25 years, destroying crops and exacerbating food insecurity.[36][37]

Economic Instability

High inflation rates further crippled food access. Ethiopia experienced an average inflation rate of 26% in 2021 and 30% in 2022, largely driven by soaring food prices. By February 2023, the overall inflation rate reached 32%, making essential food items increasingly unaffordable for many.[27][28]

Looting & Service Removal

All parties involved in the conflict, including the TPLF/TDF and federal Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces, have been accused of looting aid shipments and civilian property. USAID reported warehouses being emptied by TPLF soldiers. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International documented widespread pillaging of homes, businesses, livestock, and crops by federal and allied forces, leading to "extreme starvation" in affected areas. Essential services were also deliberately removed.[44][48][49]

International Weapons Sales

International involvement, particularly extensive military support from countries like the UAE, Turkey, Iran, and Israel, escalated the conflict. These weapons sales contributed to the war's intensity, indirectly exacerbating the humanitarian crisis for millions of Ethiopians. The UAE, for instance, operated an air bridge providing military aid, while also pledging billions in humanitarian assistance.[58][59]

Ukraine War Repercussions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 further compounded Ethiopia's food crisis. In 2020, Russia and Ukraine supplied 81% of Ethiopia's wheat imports. The conflict disrupted supply chains and caused global food prices to surge, directly impacting Ethiopia's ability to secure essential grains. Ukraine, despite its own conflict, continued to send food aid, including significant wheat shipments, to the Horn of Africa.[85][87]

Aid Distribution

Distribution Challenges

Despite the availability of food aid, its distribution faced severe impediments. In January 2021, an interim official in Tigray noted that while food was present, distribution was hampered by security concerns for convoys, preventing foreign aid organizations from operating outside Mekelle. Access blocks included federal government authorization, approvals from neighboring regional governments, and local armed forces citing security concerns or fears of aid reaching the TPLF.[18][8]

Blockades & Restrictions

Humanitarian aid deliveries were actively blocked. By April 2021, Eritrean Defence Forces and Amhara Region security forces obstructed several main roads. Authorities in the Amhara-occupied Western Zone reportedly marginalized Tigrayan populations, restricting their ability to harvest food and denying them access to international aid. Ethiopian troops were also accused of withholding food from Tigrayan civilians suspected of links to fighters.[23][62][65]

UN Officials Expelled

In a significant escalation, the federal Ethiopian government expelled seven senior United Nations officials in September 2021, accusing them of "meddling" in Ethiopia's internal affairs. This action followed a UN statement regarding the federal blockade of food aid to Tigray, further hindering humanitarian efforts.[66]

US Aid Withholding

In March 2023, the UN and US authorities paused food aid to one-sixth of Ethiopia's population due to "massive thefts" of aid. This ban was extended in June 2023, leading to at least 700 starvation-related deaths during that period. A near-total freeze on foreign aid by the Donald Trump administration, beginning in January 2025, further exacerbated the situation, forcing agencies to halt food distribution to 1 million people in Tigray due to inability to pay staff or logistics.[72][76]

Intentional Starvation Claims

Several reports and experts have alleged that federal Ethiopian-allied forces intentionally used starvation as a method of warfare. Alex de Waal argued in December 2020 that the looting by Eritrean Defence Forces violated international criminal law. The World Peace Foundation and the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) found "reasonable grounds to believe" the federal government was using starvation as a method of warfare, citing systematic looting, destruction of infrastructure, banking blockades, and obstruction of aid.[77][78][81]

According to Teklehaymanot G. Weldemichel (2021) and the Lowenstein Human Rights Clinic (2023), key tactics allegedly used to induce famine included:

  • Systematic looting and destruction of infrastructure.
  • Banking measures that blocked access to cash.
  • A siege obstructing humanitarian aid.
  • Extensive looting and attacks on food, water, healthcare, electricity, and fuel supplies.

These actions are considered violations of international humanitarian law, prompting calls for investigations into potential war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide.[80][83][84]

Classification

IPC Framework

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a standardized scale for classifying food insecurity. Its severest classifications are:

  • Phase 3: Crisis
  • Phase 4: Emergency
  • Phase 5: Famine

In early February 2021, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) classified central Tigray Region as "Emergency (Phase 4)" and the rest of Tigray (excluding Western Tigray) as "Crisis (Phase 3)". The armed conflict, access constraints, low economic activity, and market disruptions were cited as key factors for the persistence of Phase 4 conditions.[13][20]

Debate on Formal Classification

Tufts University researcher Alex de Waal argued in February 2021 that the information blackout from the Tigray Region should not be used to "quibble" over the formal IPC classification. He highlighted that during the South Sudanese Civil War, 380,000 people died from "hunger and violence," yet only 1% of these deaths occurred in areas formally classified as "famine (Phase 5)". This underscores the challenge of formal classification amidst conflict and limited access, and the potential for significant mortality even in less severe classifications.[95][96]

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References

References

A full list of references for this article are available at the Famine in northern Ethiopia (2020–present) Wikipedia page

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